The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has deployed new, longer range, ballistic missiles on six of its nuclear-powered submarines, enabling them to strike the continental United States while situated closer to China’s coastline. U.S. military experts believe that the United States should send submarines to patrol the South China Sea to track Chinese submarines, as doing so would reduce the value of the CCP’s strategic nuclear arsenal.
On Nov. 18, Admiral Sam Paparo, head of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, told military reporters at a conference in Washington that China’s six Jin-class submarines are now “equipped with JL-3 intercontinental ballistic missiles,” Bloomberg reported.
“They were built to threaten the United States. We keep close track of those submarines,” the admiral said.
The Congressional Research Service estimates that China’s model of submarine-launched ballistic missile JL-2 had a range of about 7,200 kilometers (4,474 miles), and could only attack parts of Alaska if launched from a location near China’s shore. To attack the U.S. East Coast, the submarine would have to enter waters east of Hawaii.
US Navy Patrolling South China Sea
In response to the latest threat from the CCP, Carl Schuster, former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, told The Epoch Times that he believes the United States should send submarines to patrol the South China Sea.“I think the only thing we can do is—we’ve got to—use submarines to patrol the south China sea, which is their submarines’ operating area,” he said. “They'll look for ways to detect our submarines in those waters, so that they can direct their ballistic missile submarines away from our patrols. So in some ways, the best defense is an offense. We have to be able to detect them if we want to provide new protection against their third leg of strategic nuclear force. Or, we have to accept the risk.”
Admiral Paparo also said, “We are closely tracking those submarines,” when referring to the latest threat from Chinese nuclear submarines, according to Bloomberg.
In fact, the United States has already sent submarines to the South China Sea.
In October 2021, the U.S. Pacific Fleet said that “the Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine USS Connecticut (SSN 22) struck an object while submerged on the afternoon of Oct. 2, while operating in international waters in the Indo-Pacific region.”
The Pacific Fleet declined to disclose the exact location of the collision, but the U.S. Naval Research Association News Network reported that it occurred in the South China Sea.
US Allies Joint Forces
The 2018 report “U.S. Anti-Submarine Warfare and Its Impact,” published by the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, says that the anti-submarine weapon (ASW) capabilities of the United States, Japan, and other U.S. regional allies can significantly affect the survivability of the CCP’s ballistic missile submarines.“The United States and its allies wield a variety of ASW platforms that could threaten China’s SSBNs. These assets include attack submarines, ASW-capable surface ships, maritime ASW aircraft, and surveillance ships that can prepare for and assist in ASW operations,” the report said.
Moreover, geography lends various advantages to the United States and its allies in their efforts to block Chinese SSBNs from patrolling in the Pacific Ocean. “Along the First Island Chain, there are only a limited number of waterways—including the Miyako Strait and the Bashi Channel (in the Luzon Strait near the Philippines)—through which Chinese SSBNs can transit. All of these waterways are adjacent to land features possessed or controlled by U.S. allies, so the passages are under close surveillance by U.S. or U.S.-friendly ASW forces,” it added.
In recent decades, the United States and its allies have significantly increased their surveillance network in and around the Pacific Ocean in response to the increased activity of the CCP’s submarines. The United States has even extended its hydrophone system to the southern Philippines to connect to islands in Indonesia and from there northward to the Andaman Islands in India.
“This all-encompassing, seamless network—known as the U.S. Navy’s Fish Hook Undersea Defense Line—has the potential to seriously undermine Chinese SSBNs’ ability to leave China’s coastal waters and sail into the Pacific or Indian Oceans,” the report said.
The United States is also strengthening cooperation with its allies to counter the CCP’s expanding submarine force.
The United States shared technology with Australia in September 2021, to help build eight nuclear-powered submarines. This will effectively augment America’s undersea advantage over the CCP and could help build a submarine defense network from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean to deter CCP aggression.
In addition, in November 2021, the U.S. Navy and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) jointly conducted anti-submarine warfare exercises in the South China Sea. The exercise involved the destroyer Milius and a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft, as well as the Japanese helicopter carrier Kaga and the destroyer Murasame. An unidentified submarine and P-1 maritime patrol aircraft from the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force also participated.
Task Force 71 spokesman Joe Kelly told the Navy Times that the exercise enhanced the ability of the U.S. and Japanese navies to work together to track submarines, along with testing each unit’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
In the face of enhanced U.S. anti-submarine warfare capabilities, Beijing has asked the United States to abandon that effort. The CCP claims that the United States and its allies should not conduct strategic anti-submarine warfare against its SSBNs because doing so would undermine the CCP’s confidence in its SSBN forces’ survivability and thereby have a negative effect on strategic stability.
Some U.S. policymakers also say the United States should not seek to undermine the CCP’s second-strike capability. The Obama administration had made clear that the United States is committed to maintaining strategic stability with the Chinese Communist regime. Beijing viewed this statement as a commitment by Washington not to seek to undermine the CCP’s second-strike capability.
But nine years later, the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, released in February 2018, emphasized the importance of using U.S. nuclear capabilities to deter non-nuclear strategic attacks by the CCP.
Once a Chinese submarine launches a ballistic missile, it will be very difficult to intercept it. Therefore, some U.S. experts believe that “the safest way to eliminate any future threat from Chinese SLBMs would be to hold Chinese SSBNs at risk so they can be destroyed preemptively before their SLBMs can be launched,” according to the 2018 report “U.S. Anti-Submarine Warfare and Its Impact.”
“In terms of controlling it, the only thing you can do is to let them know that, you know where the subs are,” Schuster told The Epoch Times. “That tells them that it’s not as survivable, and usually that diminishes the value of their strategic reserve.”
