Conflict in South China Sea
On March 23, Chinese coast guard ships hit a Philippine supply boat with water cannons in the latest confrontation near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, causing injuries to its navy crew members and heavy damage to the wooden vessel.The United States and Japan immediately expressed their support to the Philippines, as well as alarm over Chinese forces’ repeated aggression off the Second Thomas Shoal.
The Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on March 28 that the Philippines will implement countermeasures against “illegal, coercive, aggressive, and dangerous attacks” by China’s coastguard.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea and emphasizes this on maps using the nine-dash line, which cuts into the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague dismissed Beijing’s claim to much of the South China Sea in a landmark ruling on July 12, 2016.
However, China refuses to acknowledge this ruling and continues its activities in the South China Sea, including deploying missiles on artificial islands and constructing military airstrips, which has heightened tensions in the region.
Ming-Shih Shen, director of national security research at Taipei’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times that former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte adopted a pro-China policy, but China’s promises of economic assistance to the Philippines did not increase or materialize. Instead, conflicts have repeatedly arisen between the two countries in areas within the nine-dash line.
Japan’s Preemptive Measure
The Taiwan Strait represents another perilous area, prompting Japan to bolster defense capabilities on its southwestern islands.Yonaguni Island, situated roughly 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles) from Tokyo and merely 110 kilometers (68 miles) from Taiwan, serves as the frontline of Japan’s initiative.
As tensions in the Taiwan Strait intensify, Japan is reportedly deploying fresh military units on the islands and expanding its bases there, per a March 31 report by Nikkei Asia.
Japan, aiming to strengthen its capacity for counterattack, signed a $1.7 billion contract in January with the United States for the procurement of 400 Tomahawks land attack cruise missiles to be equipped onto four classes of Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) Aegis-equipped destroyers.
Mr. Shen believed Japan’s efforts to boost defense capabilities on its remote southwestern islands and reinforce the deployment of anti-ship missiles are evidently aimed at countering China, primarily as a responsive strategy.
Ma Chun-Wei, an associate professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, also agreed that it’s essentially a preemptive defense measure.
He indicated that Japan felt the pressure from China’s maneuvers in the South China Sea and East China Sea. As a precautionary measure, Japan is ramping up its preparedness for potential future conflicts. Within the context of the U.S.-Japan security alliance, Japan is likely to seek increased assurances from the United States during bilateral summits. “Areas such as practical training, intelligence sharing, and command coordination might be focal points of discussion,” Mr. Ma noted.
In a White House statement on March 18, President Joe Biden will host President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan on April 11 at the White House for the first trilateral U.S.-Japan-Philippines leaders’ summit. This inaugural meeting among the three leaders may signal the emergence of a novel trilateral alliance aimed at addressing China’s encroachments in the South China Sea.
“To address and counteract China’s expansion, the U.S. strategy extends beyond Hawaii and Guam, encompassing the northern region of Taiwan, the southwestern islands of Japan, as well as the southern region of Taiwan and the Philippines. It has a comprehensive set of contingency and operational plans,” said Mr. Shen
He believed arrangements would be made for bilateral or multilateral military exercises after the summit to strengthen future contingency plans.
Conflict Along India-China Border
India has taken a clear stance in favor of the United States’ ally, the Philippines, amid the series of provocative conflicts engineered by Beijing in the South China Sea.Indian external affairs minister S. Jaishankar, at a joint press conference with the Philippine Foreign Minister on March 26, expressed support for the country’s upholding of its national sovereignty.
However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded, “Maritime disputes are issues between the countries concerned. Third parties have no right to interfere whatsoever.”
The India-China border has been the subject of numerous disputes, notably marked by a significant conflict in 1962.
In 2020, severe clashes erupted between the two countries’ military forces in the Galwan Valley of the eastern Ladakh border, resulting in casualties on both sides. Nonetheless, the military forces of both nations have convened multiple negotiations and have concurred on sustaining dialogue through military and diplomatic avenues.
According to March reports in Indian media, India is redeploying 10,000 troops from its stationed forces in the western border region to the eastern disputed border areas with China.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi presided over the inauguration ceremony of the Sela Tunnel in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, also known as South Tibet to the Chinese, on March 9.
Mr. Shen stated that this tunnel is of great significance because it would facilitate the speedy transport of troops in a conflict.
While there is a possibility of future border conflicts, however, the border issue is not the top priority for both China and India, according to Mr. Shen.
“India is aware that it cannot single-handedly confront China in the border conflict. Despite the traditional Russia-India bilateral relations, Russia is unlikely to fully support India, and India still needs support from other regional countries,” he said.
Mr. Shen believed there was a possibility of conflict in the Indo-Pacific region, considering the CCP’s expansionism and the arrogant attitude of Chinese leader Xi Jinping since securing his third term.
Mr. Ma, on the other hand, indicated that while tensions in the Indo-Pacific region are escalating, there doesn’t seem to be an immediate prospect of war. Rather, the threat is on the rise.
He said, “The military dialogue between the United States and China has resumed this year. As long as there are communication mechanisms in place, the risk will be significantly reduced. In other words, a full-scale war is less likely. Both China and India have disputes along their border, but they still exercise restraint.”
He believed that China’s naval expansion in the Indian Ocean would exert pressure on India, prompting India to cooperate with the United States in terms of security.
He stated the United States’ navigation in the region was not blocked but met some interference, originating from China’s expansion in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.
