ANALYSIS: China’s Xi Jinping Promotes Food Security Strategy

A worker shovels grain at a State Grain Storage warehouse in Taizhou, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on June 13, 2023. STR/AFP via Getty Images

Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently made an unannounced visit to Heilongjiang province.

During his Sept. 6 to 8 visit, Mr. Xi emphasized that the northern Chinese province, which borders Russia, should play a crucial role as the “ballast stone” for China’s domestic food security.

The term “ballast stone” was made in reference to the stone placed in the bottom compartment of a ship to stabilize its center of gravity. With it, even with deeper draft, a ship has a better chance of avoiding significant swaying and capsizing in rough seas.

Chinese state media extensively covered Mr. Xi’s movements and comments along his visit over several days. The breathless coverage have analysts saying that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is likely preparing a strategic food reserve to counter potential trade restraints by liberal democratic nations.

Mr. Xi’s recent comments have indicated that policies to address food security are increasingly a top priority for Beijing in mitigating this potential crisis amid the economic and political crisis the CCP regime is facing now.

Emphasizing Food Security a Strategic Approach

In their coverage of Mr. Xi’s speech, Chinese state media used the term “strategic” eight times. They depict Mr. Xi as making another crucial move in the grand chessboard of global affairs to further secure China’s food reserves.

While repeatedly emphasizing the “ballast stone” remark, official media also acknowledged that the changing global landscape is unfavorable to the CCP.

“The world is experiencing unprecedented major changes, entering a period of turbulence and transformation,” one report stated, adding, “in a period of increasing uncertainty and unpredictability, various ‘black swan’ and ‘gray rhino’ events could occur at any time.”

A vendor picks up rice at her stall in a market in Beijing. For decades, high levels of cadmium and other toxic heavy metals have polluted China's waterways and through irrigation they have ended up in village rice paddies. Peter Parks/Getty Images

The comments suggest that the CCP views food security in Heilongjiang Province as a crucial component in a strategy to safeguard the regime’s rule in China.

Traditionally, southern China has been the main food-producing region. Whenever there is a food shortage in the north, food has been transported from the south. However, in the past 20 years, the trend has been shifting to moving food from the north to the south.

China’s three northeastern provinces have become the nation’s largest food production base, contributing to a quarter of total domestic food production. Among them, Heilongjiang—located in the northern tip of China—is the country’s largest grain warehouse, accounting for one-third of the national grain distribution, which according to official data is equivalent to providing each person in China with 50 kilograms of grain per year. According to various reports, the average Chinese can consume between 60 to 100 kilograms of rice per year.

Heilongjiang is also China’s largest producer of high-quality japonica rice, consistently achieving top yields for over a decade. In 2021, Heilongjiang’s rice production reached over 29 million tons, accounting for 13.69 percent of the total rice production in the country.

Not only does Heilongjiang have high food production, but it also produces high-quality food, which has seen the CCP focus on the region as its largest military food base. China’s second-largest grain warehouse in Henan specifically selected high-quality japonica rice cultivars from Heilongjiang to improve the quality of its military food supplies.

Since Mr. Xi came to power, he has called for the military to actively prepare for war, and various provinces have continuously strengthened their military food supply networks. Heilongjiang province’s grain reserves have also been listed in the food-reserve lists for other important provinces and cities.

In Zhejiang Province, which borders Taiwan and falls under the Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command, the list of commodity reserve enterprises and their affiliated warehouses published in 2022 includes approximately 10 Heilongjiang grain warehouses.

Stockpiling Food Amid Fear of Embargoes

Five years ago during his 2018 inspection of several large farms in Heilongjiang, Mr. Xi stated, “Chinese people should hold their rice bowls in their own hands and load their own grain.” This statement has since been repeatedly echoed by state media. Mr. Xi also said, “As long as there are no major issues with food, China’s affairs will remain stable.”

Mr. Xi regards food security as national security, essential for the stability of the CCP regime. CCP propaganda repeatedly emphasizes that food is a part of national defense and a strategic bargaining chip in the game with “hostile forces,” such as the United States.

David Zhang, host of the co-production between NTD and The Epoch Times China Insider, said on Sept. 12 that food has been a long-term strategic concern for the CCP. China is a major food-importing country, and Chinese companies have been purchasing copious amounts of farmland and pork production facilities worldwide, especially in countries like the United States, Canada, and Brazil, partly to ensure its food security. The CCP’s greatest fear is that food issues could lead to instability in its regime, he said.

China expert Gordon Chang, John Bachman, and China Insider host David Zhang discuss China on John Bachman Now. Screenshot via The Epoch Times/John Bachman Now

Mr. Zhang also noted that Mr. Xi is now preparing for a potential scenario where the United States and its allies might use restrictions on food exports to China as a “weapon” to deter the CCP from taking aggressive actions against Taiwan.

Mr. Xi’s visit to Heilongjiang and his emphasis on food security are part of this preparation. However, severe flooding in China this year has led to significant reductions in domestic wheat and rice production, while some countries have restricted food exports to China due to skyrocketing rice prices, adding to the CCP’s uncertainty in its attempts to secure food security.

‘Flooded Granaries’ Exacerbate Food Risks

In August of this year, Typhoon Doksuri caused unprecedented heavy rain and flooding in northeastern China. Ninety thousand hectares of crops in Heilongjiang were damaged by the floods. Rice fields in the hardest-hit cities, such as Wuchang and Shangzhi, were submerged.

Wuchang, in particular, accounts for one-tenth of Heilongjiang Province’s rice cultivation area and is the largest single-season rice-producing region in China. Rice that is submerged for more than three days during its critical flowering stage is unlikely to yield grains, and many farmers in the region fear severe yield reductions or even complete crop failures after the floods.

Flooding was already impacting regions in China before Typhoon Doksuri. Extensive wheat crops in central regions like Henan province were soaked by the floods, leading to significant hits to productivity. Wheat in this region accounts for more than three-quarters of the national total. Henan experienced its largest losses to summer wheat production in a decade.

Beijing, Hebei province, and other areas also experienced severe flooding. In particular, the Zhuozhou region was inundated by floodwaters when dam discharge was disverted without warning. In addition to severe damage to crops, floodwaters caused losses to grain storage facilities, which have been difficult to estimate.

Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings in Beijing stated that heavy rain in China’s grain-producing north-eastern region would lead to increased Chinese demand for rice imports, potentially intensifying upward pressure on already high global rice prices, although the effects on corn prices were said to be limited due to strong global supply.

Importing Large Amounts of Food to Ensure Security

The Russia-Ukraine war has led to continually rising global food prices. India’s rice export ban announced in July had a ripple effect on global markets, with the rice price index increasing by 9.8 percent in August compared to the previous month, reaching its highest point in 15 years, further exacerbating global food inflation.

However, soaring prices have not deterred China from continuously importing enormous quantities of food from around the world.

According to official Chinese statistics, China imported 110 million tons of food from January to August this year; a 6.8 percent year-on-year increase. Soybean imports reached 72 million tons; a 17.9 percent increase year-on-year. Vegetable oil imports amounted to 6 million tons, a 114.4 percent increase year-on-year.

In the first half of the year, China imported a total of 1.81 million tons of rice, a significant decrease from last year’s 6.19 million tons due to the dual impact of sharply rising rice prices and the continuous depreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar.

In the first half of this year, China’s wheat imports reached 7.9 million tons, a 62.1 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

The CCP has consistently denied that China is facing any food shortages in the face of its increasing imports. Officials from the CCP’s Ministry of Agriculture claimed in 2020 that China’s food reserves were sufficient, with reserve-to-consumption ratios far higher than the 17 to 18 percent level proposed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, especially for the two major grains of wheat and rice, which roughly equaled one year’s consumption for the entire population.

Regarding this, Mr. Zhang warned that the CCP’s official statistics are often fabricated, and even if there was so much food, it would be considered strategic reserves.

“Xi Jinping’s continuous food imports indicate that he is walking down the path of a food war. The more he struggles forward, the less likely there will be safety and stability,” he said.