‘We all should be worried whether it’s going to happen or not. And part of the reason why deterrence is so important is so that conflict does not occur.’
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., expressed concern about the potential invasion of Taiwan by communist China, stating that Americans “should be worried.”
When asked about the possibility of such an invasion during an
interview at the Reagan National Defense Forum on Dec. 2, Gen. Brown pointed to Hong Kong as an example, stating: “Just think about what happened in Hong Kong. ... We all should be worried whether it’s going to happen or not. And part of the reason why deterrence is so important is so that conflict does not occur.”
Since Beijing enacted the national security law in Hong Kong in 2020, the city has seen a significant erosion of the freedoms promised by the Chinese communist regime when the former British territory was handed over to the mainland in 1997. Authorities have suppressed
protests, imprisoned pro-democracy
activists, and banned
gatherings, including the annual Tiananmen Square massacre vigil.
Gen. Brown also said that Beijing is putting pressure on Taiwan and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region for “their own gain.”
His remarks align with the recent findings of the Reagan National Defense
Survey that host Shannon Bream presented during the interview, in which 73 percent of respondents said they were somewhat concerned about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The survey found that a growing number of Americans support Taiwan, with 46 percent in favor of sending U.S. forces to defend the self-ruled democratic island if invaded, up from 39 percent in 2019. To deter the possibility of Chinese invasion, 60 percent of Americans supported increasing the presence of U.S. troops near the island.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ramped up pressure against Taiwan in recent years, consistently deploying military aircraft and vessels close to the island on an almost daily basis, aiming to
erode Taipei’s defenses.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has vowed to achieve the “reunification” of Taiwan, which the CCP has never ruled. He has explicitly stated his willingness
to use force to achieve this goal.
China’s ‘Internal Challenges’
Earlier this year, CIA Director William Burns
said that U.S. intelligence was aware that Xi directed the Chinese military to be ready for an invasion by 2027. While the timeline may not represent an actual invasion, it shows Xi’s determination to achieve this goal. Last year, top Pentagon officials warned a possible war across the Taiwan Strait could happen
by 2024.
However, China’s economic slowdown could make it difficult for the regime to launch an attack on Taiwan, and the timeline may be delayed further. In September, during a visit to Vietnam, President Joe Biden
said that China’s “difficult economic problem” makes it unlikely for the regime “to invade Taiwan. And [as a] matter of fact, the opposite—it probably doesn’t have the same capacity that it had before.”
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen
expressed the same views during an interview with The New York Times that was broadcast at the DealBook Summit on Nov. 29. “I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges,” she said. “And my thought is that perhaps this is not a time for them to consider a major invasion of Taiwan.”
In an interview with Bloomberg in September, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
said that due to the Russian economy being hit by sanctions from the West for its invasion of Ukraine, China’s timetable for a war with Taiwan might be pushed back. She said that before the Russia–Ukraine war, Xi had wanted to invade the island within two or three years.
In September, two senior officials from the Defense Department
told Congress that the Chinese regime would likely fail if its military attempted to blockade Taiwan. Army Maj. Gen. Joseph McGee noted at the hearing that it would be “absolutely nothing easy” for the regime to invade Taiwan. He said that a frontal attack, a surprise attack, or a combined amphibious and air attack would all be very challenging for the Chinese military due to the long distance across the strait, the terrain of Taiwan, and the large numbers of troops needed to deploy for such a large-scale attack.
According to a
wargame report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) earlier this year, China would be defeated in a conventional amphibious invasion of Taiwan. However, the victory would come at a cost to the U.S. Navy and Taiwan’s economy.
CSIS noted that the Chinese regime lost the hypothetical war heavily, which “might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule.”
Even in winning the battle, “the United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of service members. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years,” the report said.
CCP Could Be Preparing for War
In an
event hosted by the Hudson Institute in July, Kyle Bass, a hedge fund manager and a China expert, warned that the Chinese regime is ramping up its preparation for an upcoming war.
Mr. Bass, founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management, said he noticed many indicators are “headed in one direction,” indicating that Xi will likely invade Taiwan soon.
These indicators include Xi having made multiple key orders and speeches calling for war preparation and “struggle” against “hostile forces.”
Mr. Bass noted a series of financial measures made by Xi to prevent China’s economy from being hit by U.S. sanctions. These include ordering Chinese banks to assess the risk of “severe U.S. sanctions,” letting offshore dollar bond defaults, and increasing gold holdings while reducing U.S. treasuries, among others.
“U.S. capital markets are the deepest, most liquid markets in the world and also currently have the highest interest rates in the developed world. China would be expected to be buying U.S. Treasury bills and bonds with said surpluses,” Mr. Bass said. “Instead, they have been selling.”
Furthermore, he pointed out that China has accelerated its purchase of natural resources and energy, which has increased significantly. This has positioned China as the world’s leading importer of crude oil, accompanied by a substantial increase in grain stockpile reserves.
Mr. Bass said that the CCP is going to seize Taiwan because it believes China is “strong enough now to withstand U.S. sanctions.”
