“The country remains evenly divided and the partisan divisions so deep that historic measures of the impact of the economy and other issues don’t mean as much as they once did.”
Pandemic Unprecedented
The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic and national lockdown that began in March and continues to the present day in varying degrees across the country has no precedent.Whereas the nation’s previous widespread epidemic, the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, had minimal effect on the congressional elections that year, the CCP virus, also known as the novel coronavirus, is in many respects the defining mystery issue of the 2020 campaign.
“They created two completely opposite campaign strategies, one of which we have never seen. Trump and Republicans are employing a more traditional campaign, consisting of large rallies and door-knocking,” the Washington, D.C.-based Chavous told The Epoch Times.
“Biden and Democrats are doing the opposite; strictly adhering to social distancing guidelines and opting for much smaller gatherings and foregoing door-knocking altogether. This is unprecedented, and we do not know if the Biden strategy will succeed.”
Pollsters’ Mistakes
Keene, Norquist, and Chavous were among a bipartisan selection of presidential and congressional campaign strategists and advocates interviewed by The Epoch Times who pointed to additional questions that they contend make confidently predicting 2020 winners all but impossible, including:- Are pollsters repeating their 2016 mistakes and missing the true depth of Trump’s support among voters, thanks to the “ghost voter” phenomenon?
- Nominally nonpartisan liberal advocacy foundations have registered millions of new, presumably Democratic, voters in recent years, but will they actually show up by election day?
- An unprecedented surge of early voting means an estimated 60 million Americans have already voted, but what effect will the additional millions of mail-in ballots circulating in the electorate have on turnout?
- Is Trump’s support among black voters greater than the 8 percent he received in 2016?
Trump’s surprise victory was largely due to winning battleground states Republican presidential contenders hadn’t won in decades, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where an over-confident Clinton failed to campaign actively.
‘Shy Voters’
Robin Biro, a regional director for the 2008 Obama–Biden campaign who specializes in data analysis, told The Epoch Times the Trump ghost or “shy voter”—individuals who back Trump but are reluctant to say so to pollsters—effect is real, but it’s not just among Trumpsters.“We already know that Trump voters are less likely to give their answers to pollsters, but 11.5 percent of independents also fell into the category of shy voters in 2016,” Biro said.
Biro thinks “the basic statistical polling error from 2016 has been corrected by pollsters who now weight by education, but polling errors vary by state and it is entirely possible that we’ll see a different kind of statistical error this year, in either direction.”
A related factor is seen, Norquist suggested, in former Clinton pollster Mark Penn, who asked a question a month ago with the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: “How are your neighbors voting?”
“In a poll that had Biden up eight points, 40 percent said their neighbors were voting for Trump and 30 percent said Biden. That might be a measure of ‘shy’ Trump voters. And it is a non-zero number,” Norquist said.
“Indeed, President Trump has a fervent base, but that base has not grown. Trump can’t turn down the volume and rhetoric long enough to appeal to new and moderate voters he needs, so he goes back to his most loyal followers for fund-raising, rally attendance, and votes.”
Similar Trends
Heritage Action for America Executive Director Jessica Anderson said: “We’re seeing trends similar to past elections, like Democrats taking advantage of early voting while Republicans are largely waiting until Election Day. Unlike 2016, both campaigns realize they cannot take the Midwest for granted, so they have increased events and outreach there.“Swing voters are also up for grabs and have spurred groups like Heritage Action to build out a long-term infrastructure in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”
“What concerns me is that we are kind of in uncharted waters here, given the record-setting amount of early voting that is going on. I look at the long lines of voters waiting for hours to vote early and I wonder who exactly are they? Are they Trump voters coming out now, or are they going to wait till election day?” he said.
He told The Epoch Times on Oct. 26 that the Trump team advantages include “greater intensity, likely improvement among African Americans and Hispanics, better data, and massively more direct voter contact. Biden has a lead but it’s shrinking.”
“There are so many variables and uncertainties, nobody should be surprised by any outcome come Nov. 3, or whenever a winner is determined,” Williams said Oct. 26.
“President Trump holds 20,000-plus people rallies and drives past thousands of additional supporters lining the streets on his way back to the airport. Then there are the numerous, nation-wide Trump car caravans and boat flotillas.” Motley said.
“But Joe Biden hosts events that can’t draw flies.”
