Wall Street ‘Fear Gauge’ Jumps to Highest Since Lehman Collapse and Pandemic Crash

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, on Jan. 9, 2024. (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)

A measure of stock market volatility dubbed the Wall Street “fear gauge” jumped to its highest level since the Lehman Brothers collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic, as stocks around the world resumed their slide on Aug. 5 amid economic fears fanned by last week’s disappointing U.S. jobs report.

The VIX volatility measure surged above the 65 mark after opening bell Monday, a level seen only twice before in history: once during the financial crisis of 2008–2009 and again during the pandemic-related market panic in 2020.

Officially called the CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX tracks the 30-day implied volatility of the benchmark S&P 500 Index and is seen as a measure of investor fear. After the initial Monday morning surge, the VIX retreated by late morning and was trading at around the 40 mark at the time of reporting.

The rise in trading volatility came as global stocks and Wall Street’s main indexes tumbled on Monday, as fears of the United States tipping into recession rippled through markets.

“The selloff right now is real. We’re living through the third-highest VIX spike ever, behind only the GFC [great financial crisis] and COVID-19,” financial analyst Michael Batnick wrote in a note, adding that it’s normal for investors to feel anxious given the big market gyrations, although he suggested that this type of sharp selloff is a healthier development than a slow grind downward as corporate earnings decline.

“Allow me to offer a positive outlook on what looks to be a very ugly day. This is an unwind: margin calls, leverage, selling everything, etc. I would much rather have this type of selloff than one that’s caused by earnings tanking and a re-rating in stock market multiples,” he wrote.

So far, the U.S. corporate earnings season has come in slightly better than expected, but a number of high-profile reports are due this week—including Disney and Uber—providing potential for surprises that could move jittery markets.

More than half of S&P 500 companies have already reported, and, so far, 78.4 percent of them have topped analyst estimates for earnings.

Still, markets have been on edge in recent days and weeks, in part due to softening labor market data.

Before Monday’s volatility spike that catapulted the VIX to historical levels, the fear gauge perked up in recent weeks as investors grew more anxious about the outlook for corporate earnings and economic growth.

The gauge ticked up to a three-month high on Aug. 1, as economic data signaled further weakening in the manufacturing sector and the labor market. The Department of Labor released data on Aug. 1 showing that U.S. unemployment filings had jumped to an 11-month high. On the same day, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its manufacturing report, which showed industrial activity sinking deeper into recession territory, while the ISM’s employment gauge sank nearly 6 percent, a sharp drop of more than two standard deviations as head-count reductions continued into July from the prior month.

The VIX made another significant jump on Aug. 2 after a disappointing jobs report, with the fear gauge rising to a 15-month high of nearly 30—a key psychological barrier—before settling at around the 23 mark.

On that day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 114,000 new jobs in July, a marked slowdown from June’s 179,000 and well below economists’ expectations of 175,000.

Friday’s data also showed the unemployment rate jumping from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent in July, rising to its highest level since October 2021 and further signaling deceleration in the labor market.

Amid Monday’s stock selloff and wild market swings, a senior Federal Reserve official said the U.S. central bank would be prepared to take whatever steps are necessary to stabilize the economy if it were to deteriorate sharply.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said the Fed is prepared to step in and “fix it” if data come in showing that the economy is tanking. However, he suggested that markets were overreacting to Friday’s jobs report and that, on balance, even though there are signs of weakness in the economy, growth has remained strong, as has consumer spending, and that the jobs numbers are not yet in recession territory.