New Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the U.S. labor market remained stable in February as turbulence began forming in the broader economy.
The number of job vacancies declined by 194,000 to 7.568 million from an upwardly adjusted 7.762 million in January. This came in below the consensus forecast of 7.63 million.
In addition, the job openings rate slipped to 4.5 percent from 4.7 percent, the second-lowest monthly figure since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ratio of openings to unemployment—a statistic that the Federal Reserve watches closely—remained slightly above 1.0.
Job vacancies fell in retail trade (126,000), finance and insurance (80,000), leisure and hospitality (61,000), and manufacturing (31,000).
Although the number of job openings hovers around 2021 levels, the wider employment situation has remained stable.
Job quits—a gauge of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs that could signal workers’ confidence about finding a new position—slipped by 61,000 to 3.195 million from a downwardly revised 3.256 million in January.
Over the past year, job quits have decreased by 273,000.
Employers maintained their hiring freeze as the number of new hires was flat at 5.4 million.
While layoffs and discharges were little changed, federal worker layoffs spiked in February by 22,000 from 4,000 in January.
This represented the largest monthly increase since November 2020.
Overall, the latest JOLTS figures present a cooling yet stable jobs market.
At the same time, looking ahead, “storm clouds are on the horizon,” says Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate.
“Economists broadly believe that recession odds are increasing. Consumer and business sentiment is under pressure. If tariffs [taxes on imports] and a full-blown trade war become realities, inflation and stagflation risks rise,” Hamrick said in a statement to The Epoch Times.
“Still reeling from price surges of recent years, the last thing consumers want to see is a sequel to the inflation horror show.”
Consumer sentiment has weakened, but business optimism has been more varied.
“Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street, and for many reasons,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.
“Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall.”
Inflation and labor quality were the top problems for employers.
Nearly a third (32 percent) say they have been actively seeking to expand their teams, up from just 9.5 percent in October.
“Small businesses aren’t just surviving—they’re ready to thrive,” Andrew Crapuchettes, CEO of RedBalloon.work, said in a statement.
Peeking at the Numbers
More employment data will be released this week.Payroll processor ADP will publish its monthly National Employment Report on April 2. The March figures are expected to show 105,000 new jobs.
Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas will report the number of job cuts for March.
Early estimates from Trading Economics suggest the report will highlight 190,000 layoffs.
The March jobs report will be the main event on April 4.
The consensus forecast suggests the payrolls increased by 128,000 last month. If accurate, this would be below the three-month rolling average of 200,000.
“Leading indicators for the payrolls print likely provide little by way of signal this time around, particularly given the extremely elevated degree of uncertainty currently clouding the U.S. economic outlook.”
The unemployment rate is projected to tick up to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent.
Despite elevated concerns about Department of Government Efficiency-related actions and tariff-fueled adverse developments, any weakness has yet to show up in the weekly numbers.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits has remained little changed this year, though there was a one-week spike in late February.
Recurring claims decreased by 25,000 to 1.856 million, and the four-week average, which strips week-to-week volatility, dropped by more than 4,000 to 224,000.
“The labor market is far stronger and resilient than folks appreciate. It’s important to note that not only job changes result in unemployment—there are a ton of people retiring right now,” Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.
However, Cox says the first-quarter GDP report will be the real test of the economy’s strength.
The regional central bank now sees a 3.7 percent contraction in the first three months of 2025.
The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for gold imports and exports, anticipates a 1.4 percent decline.
