US Durable Goods Orders Spike on Solid Aircraft Demand, ‘Front-Running’ Tariffs

Orders for long-lasting goods were the highest since this past summer.

A Boeing 737 MAX airplane takes off on a test flight from Boeing Field in Seattle, Wash. Karen Ducey/Reuters

Solid demand for transportation and companies’ “front-running” U.S. tariffs contributed to a spike in durable goods orders in March.

New Census Bureau data show that orders for manufactured goods soared by 9.2 percent, to $315.7 billion, last month, up from a 0.9 percent increase in February. This represented the sharpest increase since July 2024 and the third consecutive monthly boost.

Market estimates signaled a 2 percent increase.

The better-than-expected figure was buoyed by strong demand for commercial aircraft. Transportation equipment orders surged 27 percent, driven mainly by a 139 percent rise in commercial aircraft.

Orders for motor vehicles and parts jumped 2.3 percent. Consumption of non-defense capital goods and primary metals rose by 29.4 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.

Excluding transportation, new orders were flat.

This is welcomed data for Wall Street, says Jamie Cox, a managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

“Companies are front-running the tariffs, so these durable goods data aren’t something to get excited about,” Cox said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. “The good news is that companies are protecting their earnings and margins, and investors will be happy about that.”

Recent data indicate that companies have been preparing to ship orders ahead of time to avoid the Trump administration’s levies.

Descartes Systems Group found that U.S. container imports increased by 11 percent year over year in March. Chinese imports also swelled by more than 9 percent from the previous year.

The trend is anticipated to slow amid tariff implementations. According to Vizion, booking volumes have plummeted, with U.S. imports declining by 64 percent for the week ending April 8.

“This dramatic drop aligned with two key developments: the April 4 U.S. tariff announcement, followed by China’s retaliatory measures announced on April 5,” the group said in a recent report. “The result? A widespread booking freeze, as shippers paused mid-shipment cycle to reassess costs, timelines, and broader trade strategy.”

President Donald Trump authorized a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most U.S. trading partners except China in April. Still, countries face a baseline universal tariff rate of 10 percent on their shipments to the United States.

Yale University’s Budget Lab estimates that the overall average effective tariff rate, taking into account all U.S. tariffs and foreign retaliation, is 28 percent through April 15, the highest in more than a century.

Rocketing demand for commercial aircraft, meanwhile, may not persist. The Center for Aviation, an industry research firm, says tariffs and retaliatory measures will affect air travel.

The group said in an April 23 report that “for aviation, the outlook is deteriorating,” pointing to inflation and growth risks.

Shipping containers stacked at the Port of Baltimore in Baltimore, Md., on April 10, 2025. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

“These economic concerns are likely to mean lower demand for air travel. Flag carriers/network airlines are likely to be hit harder, due to exposure to North America, premium cabins and cargo.” the report said.

Growth Scare Ahead

Another government data point could signal slower economic growth ahead.

Demand for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft—a closely watched metric for pipeline business spending—was tepid, inching 0.1 percent higher. While this is up from a 0.3 percent decline in February, the March number fell short of expectations.

A lackluster reading could also suggest that businesses are taking “a wait and see approach” to investment amidst heightened economic uncertainty, according to Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams.

Still, growth concerns have been ubiquitous in recent weeks, with market watchers monitoring a regional central bank’s widely-watched GDP model.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow Model estimate suggests first-quarter growth will be negative 0.1 percent after adjusting for gold imports and exports.

Others have revised their GDP forecasts for the year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2025 U.S. growth projections to 1.8 percent from 2.7 percent. Oxford Economics trimmed its U.S. GDP estimate by 0.5 percentage points to 1.9 percent.

However, Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says any slowdown could be short-lived.

“And any downturn in economic growth could be very short-lived, as it seems to largely be a reaction to concerns about tariff wars,“ she said in a note last month. ”We’ll want to follow the data closely to ensure the US economy isn’t deteriorating too quickly.”

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast, an alternative GDP predictor, indicates that the economy could expand by 2.6 percent in the second quarter.

Nevertheless, uncertainty remains a key term for economic observers.

“The scale of the uncertainty element of the shock is harder to pin down,” said Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics.

“Overall, however, we expect GDP growth in the U.S. and world economy to slow sharply, but we don’t anticipate recessions in either.”

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the first-quarter GDP report on April 30. The consensus estimate suggests a 0.4 percent expansion in the January–March period.