US Car Sales Forecast to Beat Expectations for Best Performance Since 2019

New Hyundai cars are displayed on the sales lot of a dealership in San Leandro, Calif., on May 30, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

U.S. car sale numbers for 2024 are expected to break previous years’ figures, with better buying conditions contributing to higher year-end sales momentum, according to automotive services company Cox Automotive.

U.S. new auto sales are expected to hit roughly 15.85 million units this year, up from 15.55 million in 2023, according to a Dec. 17 statement from the company. If the estimates turn out to be accurate, it would be the highest number of new vehicles sold in the country in a year since 2019. The fourth-quarter boost in sales is a result of factors such as falling interest rates and better consumer confidence, with the trend expected to continue well into next year. Cox expects new vehicle sales to jump to 16.3 million units in 2025.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said there is now a “bit of a bump up in sales” since the U.S. general election is over. Prices of new vehicles rose in both October and November, with December projected to see an uptick as well.

“Many buyers who thought it best to wait to get the best deal are realizing that now is the time to buy before new administration policy changes are implemented,” he said. “Some vehicle buyers are taking advantage of EV discounts that could be dialed back by the new administration, and others may be concerned potential tariffs may hit prices. So, the market has strong tailwinds as the year comes to a close.”

General Motors is forecast to be the No. 1 car brand in the United States in terms of vehicles sold, with more than 2.68 million units sold in 2024. GM was followed by Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, and Honda.

In terms of increase in vehicle sales, Mazda is expected to come out on top, with the company estimated to see a more than 16 percent increase this year over 2023. Mazda is followed by Honda, Daimler, Subaru, and Nissan Mitsu.

Stellantis is projected to perform the worst, estimated to see its sales fall by 15 percent, followed by Tesla with a more than 6 percent drop, and BMW with a marginal 0.2 percent decline. This would be the first time since 2014 that Tesla registered a year-over-year decline in sales.

However, Tesla stock has spiked by more than 93 percent from the start of the year, while shares of GM are up by nearly 42 percent.

Automotive information website Edmunds predicts that the United States will register 15.98 million new vehicle sales this year, slightly higher than Cox’s 15.85 million estimate.

“Affordability (or lack thereof) in the new vehicle market was the recurring theme of 2024,” Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’s head of insights, said.

However, things started getting better “as inventory continued to improve, stronger incentives trickled back into the market, and new vehicle interest rates declined after peaking in May,” she said.

“Consumers are still feeling the pinch, but the market has become a slightly friendlier place for car shoppers than it was at the start of the year,” Caldwell said.

Vehicle Sales in 2025

Edmunds estimates that new car sales next year could benefit from ongoing economic momentum. If the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rates for the third straight month in December, the decision will offer “a bit more relief for consumers,” the company stated.

According to an S&P Global report, experts are expecting “lower borrowing costs, reduced monthly payments, and increased consumer confidence,” given the recent rate cuts announced by the Fed.

Many buyers with good credit scores may have avoided buying a new vehicle, put off by high prices.

“These shoppers are primed to jump back into the market because of lower interest rates and their ability to qualify for most loans,” S&P Global stated.

Cox’s fourth-quarter dealer sentiment survey found that there was renewed optimism among automobile dealers after the election.

With a new administration set to come in, potential measures such as lower interest rates and tax rebates have made dealers more hopeful about the sector’s prospects in 2025.

However, sentiment regarding electric vehicle (EV) sales was in the red.

“Most dealers feel EV sales are worse now compared to one year ago. The outlook for EV sales fell further in Q4, with a majority of dealers suggesting the EV market would decline in the coming month,” Cox Automotive stated.

Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at the market researcher, said the diminishing outlook regarding the EV market is “directly tied to the at-risk status of the EV tax credits.”

During his presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump said he planned to “end the electric vehicle mandate on day one” of his new term. A spokesperson for the Trump transition team recently said that the incoming president “will support the auto industry, allowing space for both gas-powered cars and electric vehicles.”