Thanksgiving Dinner Prices Jump 25 Percent Since 2019

President Joe Biden pardons the national Thanksgiving turkey, Liberty, during a pardoning ceremony at the White House on Nov. 20, 2023. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

The cost of Thanksgiving dinner has risen by a quarter since 2019 as high inflation “continues to hammer families” across the United States, according to a recent survey.

A classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people this year will cost $61.17 on average or $6.20 per person, according to the 38th annual survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).

“This is a 4.5 percent decrease from last year’s record-high average of $64.05, but a Thanksgiving meal is still 25 percent higher than it was in 2019, which highlights the impact high supply costs and inflation have had on food prices since before the pandemic,” the organization said in a Nov. 15 press release.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall pointed out that even though there was a “slight improvement” in the cost of the Thanksgiving dinner, “high inflation continues to hammer families across the country, including the nation’s farmers.”

“Growing the food families rely on is a constant challenge for farmers because of high fuel, seed, fertilizer, and transportation costs, just to name a few,” he said.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual inflation in October was 3.2 percent, which is above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2 percent and is more than double the 1.4 percent rate when President Biden took office.

Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) criticized the Biden administration for the massive increase in the cost of Thanksgiving dinner.

“America’s families have many things to be thankful for, but Bidenomics isn’t one of them,” she said in a Nov. 21 X post.

During a Nov. 20 press briefing, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre highlighted the AFBF report to point out that the cost of Thanksgiving dinner has fallen this year.

“As we start preparing our Thanksgiving meals, grocery inflation is at its lowest level in over two years,” she said. “Because wages are rising, this Thanksgiving dinner is the fourth-cheapest ever as a percentage of average earnings.”

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) said in a Nov. 21 X post that “no matter how the White House tries to spin in it, Biden’s broken economy is completely unsustainable for working families.”

Thanksgiving Dinner Costs

According to the AFBF report, the item that helped to bring down the overall cost of the Thanksgiving dinner is the centerpiece of most meals—turkey.

“The average price for a 16-pound turkey is $27.35. That is $1.71 per pound, down 5.6 percent from last year,” the release said.

AFBF senior economist Veronica Nigh pointed out that “traditionally, the turkey is the most expensive item on the Thanksgiving dinner table.” However, “turkey prices have fallen thanks to a sharp reduction in cases of avian influenza, which have allowed production to increase in time for the holiday.”

Americans who have not yet purchased a turkey may see “additional savings” in cost as turkey prices fell after the survey was conducted between Nov. 1 and Nov. 6.

In addition to turkey, seven more items are estimated to be cheaper this year—cubed stuffing mix, frozen pie crusts, whipping cream, frozen peas, whole milk, fresh cranberries, and other miscellaneous ingredients necessary to prepare the meal.

Four items are estimated to be expensive—dinner rolls, pumpkin pie mix, sweet potatoes, and a veggie tray consisting of carrots and celery.

Region-wise, the cheapest Thanksgiving dinner would be in the Midwest, with the classic meal costing $58.66. The Northwest is calculated to see the highest dinner cost at $64.38.

An expanded Thanksgiving meal with boneless ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans is calculated to cost $81.83 in the Midwest and $88.43 in the Northeast.

AFBF calculated the national average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner using 245 surveys which utilized pricing data from all 50 American states and Puerto Rico.

Turkey Costs

Last year, the spread of avian influenza had decimated poultry farmers. The disease was discovered in July, a time when commercial turkey producers typically start raising flocks for Thanksgiving and Christmas. This led to Thanksgiving dinner costs rising as turkey prices surged by 21 percent.

The current reduction in avian influenza cases has reversed the situation. In an interview with CNN, Michael Swanson, chief agriculture economist with Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute said that there has been a “big collapse in retail prices for turkey.”

He estimated that store prices of 10- to 15-pound turkeys have fallen by 13 percent in October compared to the same month last year. Mr. Swanson also pointed out that farms added 2 to 3 percent additional birds in July to strengthen supply for Thanksgiving.

A reduction in input costs like the cost of refrigerated trucks has also contributed to a fall in turkey prices, Mr. Swanson stated.

“A year ago, refrigerated trucks were charging $3.80 per mile on average. Now, the most recent rate quoted by the USDA was $3.30 per mile,” he said. There are also more trucks available, which freed up supply and brought down costs further.

Mr. Duvall called on Congress to “double down on a commitment to passing a new farm bill with a modernized safety net to support those who raise the crops and livestock that supply Thanksgiving dinner and every dinner.”