LONDON—World share markets shuffled sideways on Thursday as investors looked ahead to a clutch of key central bank meetings next week and disappointing earnings from Netflix and Tesla pushed Wall Street futures lower.
There had been pockets of gains in Asia and in commodities markets overnight after China pledged some additional support for its economy although another slide in its tech stocks showed it was far from stellar.
Europe’s big bourses took their time but did eventually nudge higher as the jump in metals prices, and a 2.3 percent leap in wheat after Russia struck Ukraine’s ports, lifted mining and basic resource stocks more than 2 percent.
The major FX pairs were largely quiet but there was action in the emerging markets.
China’s yuan shot up after authorities tweaked cross-border financing rules and major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars, while Turkey’s lira was at a fresh record low ahead of an expected steep hike in interest rates later—the second since Tayyip Erdogan secured a third decade in power in May.
“There is a massive discrepancy where policy rates are and where inflation is (in Turkey) so the question is how do you square that circle?” said Matt Vogel, a portfolio manager at FIM Partners in London.
The crucial next moves from the major economy central bank meetings in Japan, Europe, and the United States are all a focus of investor attention, and then the Bank of England in the first week of August.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said this week there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieving the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target, dousing speculation of a change to its “yield curve control” policy next week.
Traders and analysts expect the European Central Bank to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points next week but what comes after that has been up for debate in the wake of the recent dovish tone taken by the central bank’s policymakers.
Fragile China
China stocks have been under pressure in recent weeks as soft economic data weighed on sentiment, with investors waiting for meaningful stimulus to jump start the country’s stuttering post-pandemic recovery.Daleep Singh, chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income, said China’s current recovery is unlike others as it relies on consumer-led growth following years of credit fuelled investment in property and infrastructure.
“However, the consumer already appears to be losing momentum. Moreover, there is no evidence as of yet that the property slump is bottoming out ... we anticipate that fiscal stimulus will focus on local governments.”
Analysts at TD Securities meanwhile expect Beijing to announce a 4 trillion yuan ($560 billion) stimulus package at the July Politburo meeting.
Asia’s tech stocks were not helped by Taiwan’s TSMC—the world’s biggest chipmaker—posting a 23.3 percent fall in its second-quarter net profit.
U.S. futures were pointing down after Netflix’s second-quarter revenue numbers fell short of estimates and electric carmaker Tesla’s gross margin also failed to excite.
The Australian dollar rose 0.86 percent to $0.683 after strong domestic jobs data.
Bond markets were largely quiet following their strong rally on the back of better-looking inflation data from the United States and Britain over the last couple of weeks.
Commodities traders meanwhile watched wheat futures spike 2.3 percent on growing expectations that an attack on Ukrainian ports after Russia’s withdrawal from a Black Sea export deal would have a longer-term impact on global supply.
Evghenia Sleptsova a senior economist at Oxford Economics said that between August last year and May this year, when the deal was working relatively well, Ukraine exported on average 4.5-5mt of grains per month via ports, versus 5–6mt per month before the war.
Between March and June 2022 at the peak of Russia’s post-invasion sea blockade, that number had been just 0.2-1mt per month though, meaning there could be another a big fall now.
“River port capacity has now increased somewhat, but we can safely assume that about 3mt per month of Ukraine’s grain exports would be lost,” she added, if the deal was not revived.
