Retirement Surge Leaves Aviation, Other Industries Desperate to Hire

Steven Krasneski (L), a student at the Pittsburgh Institute of Aeronautics, studies a portion of an aircraft engine with help from Kalitta Air's Nate Vincenty-Cole in West Mifflin, Pa., on May 2, 2023. Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo

America is facing a worker-shortage crisis, as several industries nationwide face the challenge of replenishing a workforce diminished by a surge of retirements that began during the pandemic.

It’s a growing problem in fields such as aviation, construction, manufacturing, nursing, and some professional industries like accounting.

Millions of workers have left the workforce since the start of the pandemic. As of February 2023, the national labor force participation rate is 0.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels, which is equivalent to 1.8 million workers leaving the workforce since the start of the pandemic in February 2020, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Further, the economy expanded at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the first three months of 2023, yet hiring was averaging nearly 300,000 jobs a month. In April, the unemployment rate reached 3.4 percent.

Even as the Federal Reserve has pumped up interest rates to fight high inflation, hiring has remained robust, as many employers simply need to replace people who have left. Companies that must fill jobs tend to raise pay to attract and keep workers—a trend that can fuel inflation as those same employers typically raise their prices to cover their higher labor costs.

Tom Hood, an executive vice president of the association, said the industry is finding it hard to attract young college graduates. Many of them prefer data science or finance, while accounting struggles with a stuffier, more old-fashioned image.

“We’re getting squeezed from the older part and the younger part as well,” Hood said.

Nela Richardson, chief economist at the payroll provider ADP, said research shows that countries that have many retirees who spend money and consume and have fewer people working typically face higher inflation. In those countries, demand for goods and services tends to exceed the supply.

Economic growth depends on how many people work. If more retire or are kept from the job market because of childcare or health and safety issues, growth is slower.

Older Workers, Women Drop Out

Since 2019, the proportion of retirees in the U.S. population has risen from 18 percent to nearly 20 percent, or about 3.5 million fewer workers, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The percentage of workers who are 55 or older is nearly 24 percent, up from only about 15 percent two decades ago.

In addition, a spike of women leaving the labor force in the early months of the pandemic, particularly to tend to family responsibilities, contributed to the labor shortage. In the spring of 2020, for example, 3.5 million mothers left their job, driving the labor force-participation rate for working moms from around 70 percent to 55 percent.

The surge of retirements and women dropping out of the labor force, along with a slowdown in immigration that began during the pandemic, are the main factors behind the labor shortages.

However, Americans below retirement age have been reentering the job market, likely drawn by steady hiring and higher pay levels. The proportion of these adults who either have a job or are looking for one now exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

Yet for now, an aging workforce remains a problem even for some white-collar jobs, particularly accounting. About three-quarters of accountants are “nearing 60” and approaching retirement, according to the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants.

Aviation Industry

In the airline industry, more than one-third of mechanics are between 55 and 64, according to government data. Fewer than one in 10 are under 30.

“Everybody’s getting ready to retire, and not enough people are coming in to take the jobs,” said Mike Myers, a maintenance manager for Piedmont Airlines, a regional feeder for American Airlines, in Hagerstown, Maryland.

As demand for travel is growing, recruiters for airlines, plane manufacturers, and repair shops are desperately seeking mechanics. However, there are several factors that could pose a challenge to recruiting mechanics.

Student William Onderdork studies an engine on a Cessna 310 aircraft at Pittsburgh Institute of Aeronautics in West Mifflin, Pa., on May 2, 2023. Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo

“Younger people discovered that there is a life outside aviation that is perhaps more stable. If you’re a mechanic, life outside aviation means less work on a hot ramp or in the rain. It’s also less work with dirt and at a higher salary,” Jonas Murby, principal at AeroDynamic Advisory, a specialty consulting firm focused on the global aerospace and aviation industries, told FLYING.

He explains that if there is a shortage of workers, the ones present have to work even more.

“The shortages themselves exacerbate that problem because a company with too few mechanics certainly doesn’t want those mechanics to work fewer hours.”

In the past year, the air travel industry has hired roughly 45,000 people, enlarging its workforce by 9 percent, to more than a half-million. That’s triple the pace of the U.S. economy’s overall hiring.

United Airlines has said it plans to hire 15,000 workers this year and more in coming years. It expects to add 2,300 pilots, in part to offset about 500 retirements. Kate Gebo, United’s executive vice president of human resources, said she foresees a shortage of airplane mechanics, with up to half of United’s mechanics already eligible to retire.

Brian Prentice, a partner at the OliverWyman consulting firm, estimates that the aviation industry will endure a shortage of up to 18,000 mechanics this year—about 12 percent of current staffing levels.

The imbalance between supply and demand is likely to result in fewer flights and delays and cancellations, or airlines having to compensate by keeping more spare aircraft and parts on hand. This leads to higher operating costs for airlines as carriers push up wages to retain and attract mechanics.

More financial aid for young people to receive training can help address the worker shortfall, Prentice said, a benefit that some airlines are starting to provide. Myers, the manager at Piedmont, said his company now offers scholarships that pay full tuition to schools like the Pittsburgh Institute of Aeronautics. In return, the student must work at Piedmont for two years. They will even set up new students with a $6,500 tool box, he added.

Shortage of Skilled Trade Workers

In the construction industry, the proportion of workers ages 55 and older doubled from 2003 to 2020, to nearly one-quarter, according to the government.

Anirban Basu, chief economist for the Associated Builders and Contractors trade group, said that in addition to aging, industries like aviation maintenance and construction share another challenge: fewer young people want to take jobs in what is often perceived as less-secure, blue-collar work.

When the now-retiring baby boomers began working, Basu said, “there was the notion that being a blue-collar tradesperson was a solid and secure path to prosperity.” But as factories shut down across the country, “the notion increasingly became that for one to become part of the American middle class, one would likely need to have more formal education, namely, a bachelor’s degree.”

The result, he said, is an economy short of factory workers, backhoe operators, welders, electricians, and other skilled trade workers.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.