Recent Banking Turmoil Brings America Closer to Recession: Fed’s Kashkari

Recent Banking Turmoil Brings America Closer to Recession: Fed’s Kashkari
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari listens to a question during an interview in New York, on March 29, 2019. Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
Katabella Roberts
Updated:
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The latest turmoil in the banking sector could bring the United States closer to a recession, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has warned.

Speaking on CBS’s “Face the Nation“ on March 26, Kashkari was asked whether the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and regional lender Signature Bank, as well as the recent rescue takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS, could tip America toward an economic downturn.

“It definitely brings us closer,” Kashkari said. “What’s unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. That credit crunch ... would then slow down the economy. This is something we are monitoring very, very closely.”

“Now, on one hand, such strains could then bring down inflation. So we have to do less work with the federal funds rate to bring the economy into balance. But right now, it’s unclear how much of an imprint these banking stresses are going to have on the economy. But it’s something to watch very carefully. And that’s what we’re focused on,” Kashkari added.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the recent turbulence in the financial system following the collapse of two major U.S. banks has raised the chances that there will be further credit tightening for U.S. households and businesses.

A cutback in bank lending would result in less spending by both consumers and businesses and make it more difficult for companies to increase prices, reducing inflationary pressures.

The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse at an office building in Zurich, Switzerland, on Sept. 2, 2022. (Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters)
The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse at an office building in Zurich, Switzerland, on Sept. 2, 2022. Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters

‘Concerning Signs’

“Such a tightening in financial conditions would work in the same direction as rate tightening,” Powell told reporters during a press conference in Washington. “You can think of it as being the equivalent of a rate hike or perhaps more than that.”
On Wednesday, the Fed voted unanimously to raise interest rates by 25 points, increasing the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4.75–5.00 percent.

When asked on Sunday whether he would hit the brakes on interest rate hikes at the Fed’s next meeting in May, Kashkari noted that the stresses to the banking system are only a “couple of weeks old” and policymakers will still need to wait and see what the longer-term impacts are on the economy before making any decision.

The Minneapolis Fed president noted there are currently some “concerning signs” such as capital markets that have largely been closed for the past two weeks.

“If those capital markets remain closed, because borrowers and lenders remain nervous, then that would tell me, OK this is probably going to have a bigger impact on the economy,” he said. However, he noted that deposit outflows seem to have slowed, in a positive sign that some confidence is being restored among smaller and regional banks.

It’s too early to make any forecasts about the next interest rate meeting, he said, but the Federal Open Market Committee will be focused on those factors when it meets again.

Silicon Valley Bank customers wait in line at SVBs headquarters in Santa Clara, Calif., on March 13, 2023. (Noah Berger/AFP via Getty Images)
Silicon Valley Bank customers wait in line at SVBs headquarters in Santa Clara, Calif., on March 13, 2023. Noah Berger/AFP via Getty Images

Increased Risks to Global Financial Stability

Kashkari’s comments come after Luke Ellis, the CEO of one of the largest publicly traded hedge funds warned that the turmoil sparked by the collapse of SVB is not over and a “significant number” of banks could fail in the next two years.
Elsewhere on Sunday, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said that risks to global financial stability have increased in the wake of the recent events in the U.S. banking system.

“At a time of higher debt levels, the rapid transition from a prolonged period of low-interest rates to much higher rates—necessary to fight inflation—inevitably generates stresses and vulnerabilities, as evidenced by recent developments in the banking sector in some advanced economies,” Georgieva told a conference in Beijing.

On the same day, Luis de Guindos, vice-president of the European Central Bank, also noted that the recent events could impact the euro area economy.

Despite his warning of a potential recession, Kashkari sought to reassure Americans of a “resilient” and “sound” banking system that has strong a capital position and plenty of liquidity, reiterating comments that have been repeatedly made by the Biden administration.

However, efforts to reassure investors and banking customers that financial institutions remain safe appear to be doing little to calm nerves, according to the results of a poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research published on March 22.

That poll found that just 10 percent of U.S. adults have high confidence in the nation’s banks and financial institutions, down from 22 percent in 2020, while 57 percent said they have some confidence in banks, and 30 percent have hardly any.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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