Black Friday isn’t what it used to be.
According to U.S. retail industry analysis published before and after Nov. 29, online sales and traffic far exceed in-person activity as more consumers choose to stay home and shop online. More retailers also spread out their discounts over a longer period than they did in the past.
Black Friday—so-called because it marks the opening of the Christmas shopping season and is typically the first day many retailers enter “the black,” or profitability, after operating at a loss the entire year—falls the day after Thanksgiving. In 2024, because Thanksgiving fell on Nov. 28, there were only 26 days between Turkey Day and Christmas Day.
During a press call on Dec. 3, National Retail Federation (NRF) CEO Matthew Shay said the federation estimated 81.7 million Americans shopped in-store on the Friday after Thanksgiving. That’s a significant increase from the 76.2 million the NRF said went out on Black Friday in 2023.
Meanwhile, according to NRF figures, 87.3 million consumers shopped online on Black Friday.
The NRF is a Washington-based advocacy organization representing American retailers.
Shay declined to say how much was likely spent over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, but said shoppers spent an average of $235 on gifts, which is slightly higher than the $227 consumers spent the prior Thanksgiving weekend.
“We expect a very healthy holiday season,” Shay said on the press call. “Consumers are spending. Retailers are feeling positive about the holiday season.”
The NRF’s figures are much different than those collected and published by other retail observers. Others said foot traffic in stores across the United States was down, not up, on Black Friday. Shay said the figures the NRF shared with reporters on Tuesday are based on surveys it conducts with a partner organization, Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“This is a question about methodology,” Shay said on Tuesday.
In its analysis published on Nov. 30, Sensormatic Solutions, part of Irish industrial products company Johnson Controls International plc, said in-store shopper traffic on the Friday after Thanksgiving fell by 8.2 percent between 2023 and 2024. As for the entire week of Nov. 24–29, shopper traffic was down by 3.9 percent from 2023.
On Dec. 1, the software-as-a-service company RetailNext Inc. issued a report echoing Sensormatic’s observations. It saw a 3.2 percent year-over-year decline in in-store foot traffic on Black Friday.
In 2024 as a whole, according to a release from RetailNext, retail foot traffic is down by about 3 percent from the prior year, and sales are down by about 4 percent.
“High grocery prices and the rising cost of living have further influenced shopper behavior, with inflation-fatigued consumers carefully balancing discretionary spending,” the RetailNext release said.
In a release, Joe Shasteen, the global head of advanced analytics at RetailNext, said the declining sales and foot traffic are likely pressuring retailers to extend sales beyond a single day so consumers can spread out their purchases over time.
“This extended shopping period has ultimately decreased the singular importance of Black Friday itself,” Shasteen said in a release.
In a statement sent to The Epoch Times, John Mercer, the head of global research for Coresight Research, said the drop in foot traffic on Black Friday shows that the era of the early-morning crowds vying for a spectacular doorbuster deal is over.
In a Nov. 30 release, Mastercard SpendingPulse said overall U.S. retail sales on the Friday after Thanksgiving, excluding automotive sales, were up by 3.4 percent from 2023 to 2024. However, in-store sales were up by only .7 percent, while online sales rose by 14.6 percent.
Mercer told The Epoch Times the consumer research firm Coresight Research estimated about $40 billion was spent at retailers on Black Friday alone. That figure included restaurant visits, too. Mercer said that means the day was about twice as busy as an average day in terms of sales.
The data from MasterCard, coupled with indicators showing stronger-than-expected shopping performance in October, leads CoreSight to believe total holiday sales could grow by as much as 4 percent from the prior year.
Representatives of Mastercard SpendingPulse did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times. SpendingPulse is part of the New York-based financial services company MasterCard Inc.
The Mastercard SpendingPulse release said retailers are now beginning their seasonal discounts well ahead of Thanksgiving, and consumers are seeing Black Friday as “more than just one day, but instead a window of time for shoppers to find value.”
In a country dealing with an elevated cost of living, shoppers are prioritizing value.
In a statement, Steve Sadove, a senior advisor for Mastercard, said Americans are “opening their wallets, but with more intentional distribution.”
Representatives of RetailNext did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.
“We foresee shoppers increasingly leaning on Black Friday for an in-store experience [and] holiday inspiration,” Mercer told The Epoch Times. “For retailers, we see Black Friday serving as a footfall driver for stores, holiday-midpoint check-in, and anchor point for broader promotions. ”
On the day, Coresight deployed agents in stores around the United States to make anecdotal observations of shopper behaviors. It saw high traffic at discount retailer Walmart as well as brisk business at apparel stores, shoe stores, and beauty retailers.
“A number of our observations of early-morning shopper traffic roughly align with trajectories at major retailers: Best Buy and Kohl’s recently reported negative comparable sales growth ... while Walmart has continued to report solid expansion in [comparisons],” Mercer said. “We anticipate this retailer to be a holiday outperformer.”
Coresight data shared with The Epoch Times indicate that clothing, footwear, and fashion accessories will be the most popular purchases this holiday season both online and in-store. Electronics, toys and games, and household appliances should also see strong sales.
In September, the NRF said in a release it expected overall winter holiday spending to grow between 2.5–3.5 percent, which is in line with the growth rate it expects in its annual sales forecast. Overall, the NRF projects Americans will spend between $979.5 billion and $989 billion on the holidays between the beginning of November and the end of December.
In its September projection, the NRF said online sales will likely make up a significant percentage of overall holiday spending. It expects online spending to rise as high as $297.9 billion in 2024 from $273.3 billion in 2023.
Adobe Inc., the San Jose, California-based software giant published a similar prediction in September. In a release, Adobe Analytics said it believes overall online shopping spending by Americans will grow by 8.4 percent between 2023 and 2024. However, Adobe came up with a substantially lower total of $240.8 billion.
Adobe predicted Americans would spend as much as $40.6 billion, or about 17 percent of their overall online spending, during the period it dubbed “Cyber Week,” or the span between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.
Cyber Monday is the Monday after Thanksgiving when online retailers roll out discounts and specials comparable to what physical retailers may offer on Black Friday. Adobe Analytics said in a release it believes Americans likely spent as much as $13.2 billion online on Dec. 2.
Representatives of Adobe did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.
