Job Openings Unexpectedly Climb to 7-Month High

A hiring sign at a restaurant in Columbia, Md., on June 15, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that job vacancies rose to a seven-month high in November 2024, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains resilient despite various economic headwinds.

According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report, the number of employment openings increased by 259,000, to 8.098 million, the highest since May. This is down by approximately 800,000 from a year earlier.

Economists projected 7.7 million job openings in November.

Employment vacancies have steadily decreased since peaking at an all-time high of 12.2 million in March.

The October print was adjusted higher to 7.839 million from 7.744 million.

Job openings were concentrated mainly in professional and business services (273,000), finance and insurance (105,000), and private educational services (38,000).

Quits fell by 218,000, to 3.065 million, in November, the lowest since August 2020. They also declined by 451,000 over the past year. Quits were mainly observed in accommodation and food services (negative 85,000) and arts, entertainment, and recreation (negative 22,000).

The quits rate—the number of quits as a percent of employment—dipped to 1.9 percent.

Market analysts closely observe quit rates, which reflect employees’ confidence in securing new positions in the labor market.

As seen in recent months, employers were at a standstill.

The number of new hires and layoffs remained unchanged at 5.3 million and 1.8 million, respectively. However, they were higher than a year ago.

JOLTS figures come after the BLS reported that unemployment rates were higher in November than a year ago in 308 of the 389 metropolitan areas. In addition, payroll gains were essentially flat in most of the country.

Jon Willis, vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, says the central bank’s restrictive monetary policy actions could be the leading cause of the labor market’s cooling.

“I think one thing that might point to that now is if you look at a broad range of labor market indicators since the Fed started tightening in 2022, you do see in 2023 the broad labor market indicators have slowed,” Willis recently told The Epoch Times.

“That would speak to the long and variable legs starting to provide some restraint.”

Looking ahead to 2025, job openings and hiring could rebound, says Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.

“While hires were still cooling in November, the stabilization of job openings indicates that hiring too will likely stabilize and begin to improve in 2025,” Adams said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

“The animal spirits effect will likely lift job openings and hiring in 2025, fueling another year of above-trend economic growth.”

Market Reaction

U.S. stocks slumped following the JOLTS data.

The employment news signaled that the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer.

Treasury yields were mostly up across the board, with the benchmark 10-year yield topping 4.67 percent. The 20- and 30-year yields surged to 4.96 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively.

This weighed on the leading benchmark indexes. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled nearly 1 percent, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average erased its early session gains.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that monetary policymakers are anticipated to maintain the federal funds rate within a range of 4.25–4.5 percent later this month.

While the Fed signaled that it would concentrate on the maximum employment side of its dual mandate (the other being price stability) when it kicked off its easing cycle in September 2024, recent inflationary pressures spooked officials into forecasting a slower approach to lowering interest rates.

Updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed that officials projected two quarter-point rate cuts this year, down from the previous expectation of four.

According to the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model, the annual inflation rate is projected to inch higher to 2.9 percent this month from 2.7 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, is forecast to remain at 3.3 percent.

Main Event Labor Data

The December 2024 jobs report will be the week’s main event.

With the past several months producing fluctuating employment data, Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick thinks the December numbers will make up for the difference.

“The past year brought more cooling to the job market amid the headwinds of elevated interest rates, and that trend remains in place,” Hamrick said in a statement emailed to The Epoch Times.

“December is expected to effectively split the difference with a moderate increase in payrolls while the unemployment rate could rise from November’s 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent.”

Early consensus estimates suggest the U.S. economy created 160,000 new jobs last month, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent.

Meanwhile, recent Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia findings suggest that the U.S. economy could face significant downward revisions next month.

According to the regional central bank’s early benchmark estimates, second-quarter employment gains were negative, with much of the reported increases poised for revisions.

Job growth was down by 0.1 percent compared to the BLS’s 1.1 percent jump in the monthly payroll data. Twenty-five states recorded lower payrolls, two states posted higher gains, and the rest of the country saw little changes.