Is Tesla on Track to Deliver Apple-Like Gross Margins Amid China Demand Rebound? Bulls Munster and Ives React to Q3 Earnings

Raindrops are seen next to the Tesla logo on the bonnet of a Tesla electric car in Berlin's Kreuzberg district on March 15, 2021. David Gannon/AFP via Getty Images

Tesla Inc.’s impressive third-quarter earnings and revenue beat despite the impact of chip shortage indicates a robust electric vehicle trajectory for the Elon Musk-led company in the current quarter and beyond, according to analysts from Loup Ventures and Wedbush Securities.

Tesla Analysts

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives has maintained an Outperform rating and a price target of $1,000 on the Tesla stock.

Gene Munster of Loup Ventures believes Tesla’s sales could jump from $70 billion next year to $400 billion in 2027 and the stock could hit $2,500 a share then.

Tesla Thesis

Ives, who has been a long-time Tesla bull, said the company’s robust earnings beat speaks of a more profitable company going forward and is key to a higher re-rating on the stock.

Tesla reported third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $1.86, beating the street consensus of $1.57.

Ives said the gross margin beat during the quarter shows more efficiency that the electric vehicle maker is seeing with Giga Shanghai in China. Tesla reported a record 28.8 percent gross margins in the quarter, beating estimates of 25.1 percent.

“We believe China demand rebounded in the quarter,” Ives said.

Ives estimates China would represent over 40 percent of Tesla’s global deliveries in 2022 amid faster electric vehicle adoption. In China, Tesla competes with homegrown rivals such as Nio Inc. and Xpeng Inc.

Munster said Tesla’s impressive profit indicates the company could deliver Apple-like 40 percent gross margins.

The Loup analyst based this assertion on “increasing manufacturing efficiencies with Austin and Berlin gigafactories, growth in high-margin software subscription growth driven by FSD pricing and FSD uptake increases, and an expected decline in battery costs over time.”

Tesla navigated through the chip crisis well in the third quarter but warned “parts shortages” have factories running below capacity. On price hikes, Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zach Kirkhorn told investors in a post-earnings call that there’s “an awakening” for electric vehicles and “it’s caught us a little bit off guard.”

Price Action

Tesla shares closed 0.18 percent higher at $865.80 a share on Wednesday. Shares were down 1.36 percent in the extended hours.

By Rachit Vats

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