The U.S. midterm elections are not only an event that decides the fate of political power in Congress but also something that affects the stock markets.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has moved up in the year following a midterm election, regardless of the party in power. The index historically has risen by 17.5 percent on a 52-week basis when Americans chose a Republican-controlled Congress and a Democratic president, the media outlet said, citing LPL Financial.
“Businesses can operate when they know what the playing field is, and if Republicans control Congress amid a Democratic president, that will bring U.S. companies some certainty.”
Investors would be hoping for the historical trend to once again materialize, especially since the S&P 500 has been battered down by 21 percent this year.
However, the past need not repeat this time, as the current scenario is complicated by the fact that the Federal Reserve is looking to raise interest rates in a bid to contain inflation.
Historical Political Trend, Strong Sectors
According to RealClear Politics, President Joe Biden currently has an approval rating of 42.1. A Sept. 25 report by Langer Research notes that Biden is “well under water” ahead of the midterms, with a job approval rate of only 30 percent.This would put shares of defense contractors like Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin in the spotlight. Citi analysts expect Republican control of the House and Senate to result in more domestic energy production, which could be favorable for oil exploration firms.