Global trade volumes, which measure the actual quantities of goods traded while holding prices constant, are anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1 percent from 2024 to 2029, the report said.
This growth rate represents a modest acceleration compared with the previous decade, despite uncertainties related to U.S. trade policy shifts. Even if the full scope of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration were enacted, and other nations retaliate as has been announced, trade volume growth is expected, though at a slower rate.
“The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 reveals highly encouraging insights,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “There is still significant potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide.”
The report also found that global trade has continued to overcome significant challenges, including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, proving remarkably resilient.
Specifically for the United States, trade value, which represents the dollar value of traded goods without adjusting for inflation, is projected to grow by approximately $1.2 trillion between 2024 and 2029, reaching a forecast total of $6.6 trillion (5.4+1.2)
U.S. imports, valued at $3.3 trillion in 2024, are expected to increase by $654.98 billion, reaching approximately $3.96 trillion by 2029. Meanwhile, U.S. exports, currently $2.1 trillion, are forecast to grow by $515.68 billion, bringing the total to approximately $2.62 trillion over the same period.
The report emphasizes that the United States remains significantly reliant on goods manufactured in China, despite efforts to diversify sourcing following ongoing trade conflicts.
The share of direct U.S. imports from China declined to 2.6 percent of world trade in early 2024, from 3.5 percent in 2016, but indirect trade—goods originating in China entering the U.S. through third countries—indicates no substantial reduction in dependence on Chinese manufacturing.
Steven A. Altman, senior research scholar at NYU Stern, underscored the resilience of global trade despite those barriers.
“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” Altman said.
Regionally, the fastest-growing trade values from 2024 to 2029 are projected for South and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, with annual growth rates between 5 and 6 percent. North America, including the United States, is expected to experience moderate annual trade volume growth of approximately 2.7 percent, slightly below the global average.
India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are identified as leading countries forecast for significant growth, both in speed and the absolute amount of trade. Specifically, India is anticipated to contribute the third-largest absolute growth in global trade volumes, behind China and the United States.
The DHL Trade Atlas also noted that, despite growing interest in nearshoring, actual trade distances have continued to increase. The average distance for traded goods set a new record at 5,000 kilometers during the first nine months of 2024, highlighting continued global economic integration despite challenges.
