BEA Comments
“The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.“The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 6.5 percent, compared with an increase of 5.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.9 percent, compared with an increase of 4.6 percent.
“Real GDP for the year increased 5.7 percent in 2021 (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), in contrast to a decrease of 3.4 percent in 2020. The increase in real GDP in 2021 reflected increases in all major subcomponents, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports increased.
Price Index
Please note that last paragraph. Does anyone believe prices for 2021 only increased 3.9 percent?Inventory Adjustments
Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) added a whopping 4.9 percentage points to real GDP in the fourth quarter. Since inventories net to zero over time, the true bottom-line estimate of real GDP was 2.0 percent.For the third quarter, CIPI added 2.20 percentage points to real GDP.
Thus, of the reported 2.3 percent GDP gain for the third quarter, nearly the entire rise was an inventory adjustment.
I commented on this inventory build in advance.
Consumer Metrics Assessment
Rick Davis at the Consumer Metrics Institute pinged me with his thoughts on 4th-quarter GDP.- Over 70 percent of the headline number, 4.90 percentage points came from growing inventories, while arguably another 25 percent came from underestimated inflation.
- The growth rate for consumer spending on goods was a meager 0.13 percent, and spending on consumer services was reported to be a modest 2.12 percent, down 1.45 percentage points from the prior quarter.
- Real per-capita annualized disposable income was reported to have decreased by $740 quarter to quarter.
- The annualized household savings rate was 7.4 percent, down 2.1 percentage points from the prior quarter.
- In the 54 quarters since 2008-Q2, the cumulative annualized growth rate for real per capita disposable income has been 1.35 percent.
- Every now and then the BEA’s headline number wildly misrepresents the state of the economy. This is one of those times. Politicians will gladly cite the headline as proof of a healthy and growing economy. The truth is far murkier.
Retail Sales Unexpectedly Flop in December, Down 1.9 Percent
On January 14, I noted Retail Sales Unexpectedly Flop in December, Down 1.9 Percent.Unexpected Flop
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was for December retail sales to be flat from November, in a range of -0.6 percent to +0.7 percent.Adding insult to injury, the Census Department revised November to the downside.
Businesses are stocking up but consumers are failing to show up and inflation is raging. Gee, what can possibly go wrong with this scenario?
This seemingly great-looking GDP report was actually quite weak.
If retail sales in 2022 do not match the two consecutive quarter inventory build, we will see very low or perhaps even negative numbers in the coming GDP reports.
