Blue-Collar Wages Under Trump Post Largest Increase in Almost 60 Years

Wage numbers are even bigger than the improvement seen at the start of Trump’s first term, a Treasury Department official said.

The 2024 Ford F-150 truck is assembled at the Dearborn Truck Plant in Dearborn, Mich., on April 11, 2024. Carlos Osorio/File/AP Photo

In the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term, blue-collar hourly workers have experienced a nearly 2 percent increase in real wage growth—the most significant growth in the first five months under any administration since President Richard Nixon.

New Treasury Department data suggest real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wage growth is up by 1.7 percent year-to-date for production and non-supervisory workers.

By comparison, real wages declined by 1.7 percent during the first five months under the previous administration.

The last time that wages outpaced inflation at this pace was during the president’s first term, according to Joe Lavorgna, counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“Today’s data confirm what we saw during President Trump’s first administration: Pro-growth policies like tax reform and deregulation had a measurable impact on real wages, especially for blue-collar workers. This isn’t theoretical—it is showing up in the paychecks of everyday Americans,” Lavorgna told The Epoch Times.

The only other president in the past 60 years to record positive blue-collar wage data in the beginning months of his term was Nixon, who reported real blue-collar wage growth of 0.8 percent in 1969.

Other presidents have reported negative growth over the past six decades: Ronald Reagan (negative 0.9 percent), George H.W. Bush (negative 3 percent), Bill Clinton (negative 0.6 percent), George W. Bush (negative 0.6 percent), and Barack Obama (negative 0.3 percent).

Hourly wage growth was flat under President Jimmy Carter.

Bessent touted the figures in a June 17 post on social media platform X, attributing the improvement to Trump’s “pro-growth, America First policies.”

“Hardworking Americans and Main Street businesses have never had a stronger ally in the [White House],” the Treasury secretary said.

Recently appearing on the “Pod Force One” podcast, Bessent attributed the figures to Trump’s “emphasis on manufacturing” and actions removing illegal migrants from the workforce.

State of Inflation

Inflation has taken a bite out of workers’ paychecks in recent years, even as nominal wages have soared.

From the first quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2024, real wages declined by about 2 percent. Conversely, non-inflation-adjusted hourly earnings advanced by about 20 percent.

Now that inflation’s growth rate has stabilized—the consumer price index rose at a smaller-than-expected pace of 0.1 percent in May—workers are beginning to catch up from previous years.

The trend should persist. Shortly after the May jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that real average hourly earnings jumped by 0.3 percent from April to May.

Real average weekly earnings also climbed by 0.3 percent.

Consumers appear optimistic about wage growth.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent exits the West Wing of the White House on March 14, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

According to the New York Federal Reserve’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations, households anticipate that year-ahead earnings growth expectations will be 2.7 percent, up from 2.5 percent the previous month.

A September study by Bankrate forecast that wages are on pace to fully recover from inflation by the second quarter of this year.

Inflation expectations have increased substantially in recent months, although recent data suggest they have since decreased.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary June Consumer Sentiment Index revealed that the one-year inflation outlook came in at 5.1 percent from 6.6 percent in May.

The five-year outlook also eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent.

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations slowed to 3.2 percent in May from 3.6 percent in April.

A new Bankrate survey shared with The Epoch Times also revealed that nearly two-thirds of Americans think that tariffs on imported goods will affect their finances.

However, the president’s sweeping global tariffs have yet to materialize in trade data.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, import prices were relatively unchanged in May, edging up by just 0.1 percent. Export prices also declined 0.9 percent.

“[Inflation] has certainly calmed down and has shown some real signs of improvement. It is heading in the right direction toward the Fed’s self-fashioned goal of 2 percent,” Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.