The Gallup survey shows that shoppers on average plan to spend $1,012 on Christmas or holiday gifts in the 2024 season.
American shoppers polled by Gallup said they plan to spend a record amount of money on Christmas gifts this holiday season, with the findings aligning with a post-election jump in consumer confidence along with a sharp decline in fears of a potential recession over the next 12 months.
The Gallup
survey of U.S. consumers’ gift-buying intentions, released on Nov. 27, shows that shoppers on average plan to spend $1,012 on Christmas or holiday gifts in the 2024 season. That’s the highest reading ever, according to records that go back to 1999, up from last year’s record-setting $975.
This year’s record-breaking planned spending amount still holds even if adjusted for the value-destroying impact of rising prices. Inflation has eroded the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar over the past year, with $1 in October 2024 having the same buying power as 97 cents a year prior,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While this means that $1,012 today is roughly equivalent to $982 a year ago, this figure is still higher than last Christmas season’s intended spending amount and a positive sign for retailers.
Gallup’s analysis of historical ties between Christmas spending intentions and actual holiday sales data suggest that this year’s retail holiday sales will rise by nearly 5 percent year over year, beating the 4 percent annual average retail sales growth since 2000.
Further, a record-matching 19 percent of U.S. shoppers told Gallup they plan to spend more on Christmas gifts this year than they did last year, matching the record set in 1999, a feat repeated in 2023 and again now.
The record-high holiday spending intentions are the latest signal that U.S. consumers plan to keep shopping and therefore deliver a key boost to the economy.
Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), rose at a solid 0.4 percent month-over-month pace in October, according to
data released on Nov. 27 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Meanwhile, GDP rose by 2.8 percent in the third quarter, according to a separate BEA
report, which noted that increased consumer spending was a key driver of economic growth in the quarter.
Retail sales rose by a solid 0.4 percent in October compared to the prior month, according to recent
data from the U.S. Census Bureau, while the National Retail Federation recently
predicted that the 2024 holiday season will break records in terms of overall dollars spent, even when adjusted for the purchasing power-eroding effect of inflation.
Gallup’s spending intentions poll and the BEA’s spending numbers dovetail with recent reports showing a post-election rise in consumer confidence.
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment
index inched up 1.8 percentage points in November, an increase of 17.1 percent from a year ago. Its forward-looking gauge of consumer expectations jumped by 3.8 percent from October, a 35.4 percent jump from 12 months ago. Similarly, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence
index rose by 2.1 percentage points in November, largely due to increased optimism around job availability, easing inflation expectations, and reduced recession fears.
“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months fell further in November and was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement.
In line with the decline in recession fears among consumers, a panel of professional economic forecasters
polled by the National Association for Business Economics raised their economic growth projections substantially for 2025, and most of them no longer see downside risks as predominant.
Still, despite the rise in optimism, consumers polled by The Conference Board reported mixed plans for future purchases. Buying intentions for homes stalled in November, while plans to purchase autos inched up. Durable goods purchases faced uncertainty, with declines in plans for appliances and electronics offset by steady interest in health care and travel spending.
