American CEO Optimism Surges Post-Election: Business Roundtable

A boy looks at holiday decorations in New York City on Nov. 15, 2024. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Top American business executives are now more confident about the prospects of the U.S. economy and are looking forward to working with the new Trump administration, according to the Business Roundtable, an association of more than 200 CEOs.

The CEO Economic Outlook Index rose by 12 points from the third quarter to 91 points in the fourth quarter, “the highest level in over two years and well above its historic average of 83,” according to a Dec. 10 statement from the association. All three subindexes of the index—plans for hiring, expectations for sales, and plans for capital investment—registered double-digit increases.

The CEO Economic Outlook Survey gives a quarterly forecast on how top U.S. executives expect the economy to perform and its effect on their companies.

“With Washington poised to consider measures that can protect and strengthen tax reform, enable a sensible regulatory environment, and drive investment and job creation, business leaders are energized by the opportunity to engage the incoming Administration and Congress on policies that can further fuel our economy,” Cisco CEO and Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins said.

The chief executives expect the United States to register positive economic growth in the upcoming first quarter of 2025, estimating a GDP growth of 2.6 percent.

As for major issues affecting their businesses, respondents cited labor costs, regulations, and material costs as the top concerns.

Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said the organization intends to work with lawmakers on various policies for boosting the domestic business environment.

This includes tackling burdensome regulations, avoiding “overly broad tariffs” that could subject businesses and consumers to the pressures of inflation, and backing the pro-growth provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

The act was signed in 2017 by then-President Donald Trump and provided businesses with several advantages, including lowering the maximum corporate income tax rate to 21 percent and a provision allowing owners of pass-through business entities to deduct 20 percent of their incomes in tax calculations.

Small-Business Views

Small-business owners are feeling more optimistic about future business conditions, with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index this year hitting the highest reading since June 2021 in November.

NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said the results of the U.S. presidential race indicate a “major shift” in the country’s economic policy, which has triggered a surge in optimism among owners.

“Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record-high uncertainty,” he said.

“Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations.”

Regarding the upcoming Trump administration’s potential effect on the U.S. economy, experts have divergent views.

In a Dec. 10 post, analysts at investment management company Invesco, for example, said that the incoming administration will likely focus on “extending and expanding” the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Invesco is expecting the implementation of the new expanded and extended Act to happen in January 2026.

“This could unleash ‘animal spirits’ that encourage a ‘risk-on’ environment for investing. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) could be a likely beneficiary,” Invesco said.

“The Trump platform also included plans to cut the top tax rate on corporate profits from 21 percent to 15 percent for domestic manufacturers, which would make the U.S. one of the lowest corporate tax jurisdictions of any large wealthy country.”

Rodney Sullivan, executive director of the Richard A. Mayo Center for Asset Management at the University of Virginia, said that tax cuts for businesses and households “could widen the fiscal deficit,” according to a Nov. 12 post from the university.

Trump has also proposed imposing tariffs on imported goods. Although the incoming president aims to boost the United States’ manufacturing output and cut down trade deficits, “retaliatory measures from trading partners could ignite a trade war, bringing inflationary consequences,” Sullivan said.

“Higher deficits driven by lower tax rates, stiff import tariffs, and stimulative fiscal and monetary policy may be a policy elixir that leads to ‘echo-inflation’—another period of unexpected inflation,” he said.