Conservative commentators have expressed concern after U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters asking about his administration’s decision to give cluster bombs to Ukraine, “We’ve run out of ammunition.”
In a more in-depth interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on July 7, Mr. Biden had said that after months of requests from Kyiv, his administration was making the “very difficult decision” to send controversial cluster bombs to Ukraine despite his initial opposition to the request.
The reason for the change, he said, was that “this is a war relating to munitions. And they’re running out of that ammunition, and we’re low on it,” Mr. Biden said, referring to medium-caliber 155 mm artillery ammunitions.
The president said that the less-than-ideal cluster bombs were only a temporary solution, and that they’re being sent to Ukraine during a “transition period” until U.S. and other manufacturing is able to supply Ukraine with more 155 mm ammunition.
Reactions to the decision were varied, with some conservative pundits expressing concern and frustration over why the president was broadcasting to the world, including U.S. adversaries, that U.S. stocks of artillery were low.
Political commentator Ian Miles Cheong, who shared a clip of the comments on Twitter, wrote, “Joe Biden wasn’t supposed to say the quiet part out loud: ‘We’ve run out of ammunition.’ But now that the cat’s out of the bag, one must ask whether continued support of Ukraine’s military is even feasible as the conflict rages on.”
Ukraine’s Request
Kyiv increased its petitioning of Congress for the cluster bombs in February during the Munich Security Conference, telling the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee that it wanted to drop the anti-armor bomblets on Russian forces from drones to help halt the “human wave” attacks that Russia had mounted in its months-long offensive to claim the eastern city of Bakhmut, committee members Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said back in March.Mr. Biden at the time decided to withhold supply, citing the war crimes associated with the failure rate of the munitions.
The bombs, which the State Department outlined as the Dual-Purpose Conventional Improved Munitions (DPICM), detonate to release lots of smaller bomblets that kill indiscriminately over a wide area. However, many bomblets fail to detonate, posing the danger of munitions exploding long after the conflict.
The DPICM canisters are fitted into 155 mm Howitzer artillery shells that can be timed to explode at set elevations above or on a target of an artillery strike.
Production, stockpiling, use, and transfer of such cluster bombs are banned by 123 countries who signed the 2008 international treaty “Convention on Cluster Munitions.”
While China, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are not signatories, a 2009 U.S. law prohibits the United States from transferring DPICMs if bomblet failure, or “dud” rates, go over 1 percent. However, the president has the right to override the rule, as has Biden.
Signatories Canada, Germany, Spain, New Zealand, and the UK have expressed opposition to Mr. Biden’s decision to grant the cluster munitions. Japan has said it is not opposed to the move.
The aging U.S. stockpile to be sent to Ukraine is reported to have a “dud” rate of up to 2.35 percent.
He added that he believes the weapons delivery was in the interests of other states to help the Ukrainian army stop Russian aggression before it moves further into Europe.
Kyiv Promises Not to Use Cluster Bombs in Russia
The Biden administration’s provision is not without conditions.“It was not an easy decision,” Mr. Biden said on Friday. “But it took me a while to be convinced to do it. The main thing is, they either have the weapons to stop the Russians now, keep them from stopping the Ukrainian offensive through these areas, or they don’t.”
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on July 9 that Ukraine in its written assurances said it would not use cluster bombs in Russia or in populated areas to limit civilian casualties from unexploded ordinance.
Ukraine is already facing a massive unexploded ordinance problem from past wars. According to the State Department, nearly one-third of Ukraine—or around 65,000 square miles—is littered with unexploded landmines or other “explosive remnants of war.”
“In this environment, Ukraine has been requesting cluster munitions in order to defend its own sovereign territory,” Mr. Sullivan said in earlier comments on July 7. “We will not leave Ukraine defenseless at any point in this conflict, period.”
“We are closely coordinating with Ukraine, as it has requested these munitions,” he added. “Ukraine is committed to post-conflict de-mining efforts to mitigate any potential harm to civilians. And this will be necessary regardless of whether the United States provides these munitions or not because of Russia’s widespread use of cluster munitions.
“We will have to continue to assist Ukraine with de-mining efforts no matter what, given the significant use of cluster munitions already perpetrated by Russia.”
Some Republicans in Congress expressed frustration that the Biden administration did not approve Kyiv’s requests for the bombs earlier.
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chairman of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, said that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been slow moving and that the cluster bombs could be a “game changer.”
“They would be a game changer in the counteroffensive. And I’m really pleased the administration has finally agreed to do this,” he told CNN on Sunday.
Allies’ Stockpiles Running Low
It’s not just the United States that is running low on 155 mm munitions; Ukraine’s European allies who have been supporting its defense efforts have also been depleting their stockpiles.According to AFP, a U.S. official in November said that Russian forces were firing about 20,000 artillery rounds a day, while Ukraine was firing about 4,000 to 7,000 rounds per day—equal to the entire U.S. annual production in 2021 and faster than allied Western manufacturers can produce.
On July 7, EU member states and the European Parliament agreed on a €500 million ($544 million) support package for the European defense industry to provide artillery and missiles for Ukraine and to restock their own supplies.
The same day, the U.S. Army also announced another contract worth $993.7 million to increase production of 155 mm artillery rounds. The target is to produce between 12,000 and 20,000 additional rounds per month, the Army said in a statement.
“At this surge rate, it would take about six years to rebuild inventories allowing for normal peacetime usage and assuming no further transfers from inventory,” the report said. “That is a big assumption because of Ukraine’s high shell usage.”
Production rates of long-range Javelin infantry portable precision anti-tank missile and stinger missiles are also not keeping up with Ukrainian demand, Mr. Cancian noted.
However, “for most categories of weapons and munitions, the United States can provide support indefinitely,” he said.
But given the current gap in munitions stockpiles, the wisdom of U.S. involvement in Europe’s regional war has been challenged, given the established threat and aggression coming from the Kremlin’s ally, China.
A CSIS report released in January warned that the United States would quickly run out of critical munitions if a war were to break out with China over the future of Taiwan, as “the U.S. defense industrial base lacks adequate surge capacity for a major war.”
While the United States has ample amounts of small arms ammunition, relatively low stockpiles and incredibly slow acquisition and manufacturing processes could lead the nation to run out of critical long-range anti-ship missiles (LRASMs) in less than one week of war, the report found.
“The U.S. defense industrial base is not adequately prepared for the competitive security environment that now exists,” the report read.
