Avoiding the Demographic Danger Zone

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Commentary

In a recent article in The Atlantic, Derek Thompson wrote: “The implications of permanently slumped population growth are wide-ranging. Shrinking populations produce stagnant economies. ... Whether by accident, design, or a total misunderstanding of basic economics, America has steered itself into the demographic danger zone.”

It has been said by many over the years that “demography is destiny.” In many aspects of American culture, we’re seeing that being played out on a daily basis, and the destiny, as Thompson points out, isn’t looking good.

For instance, it’s now estimated that the Social Security trust fund, which relies on having enough younger individuals paying into it to pay for the benefits of those retiring, will run dry by 2034, resulting in retirees having their benefits cut by at least 20 percent.

The Social Security Administration saw this coming in 2010, when it noted in its financial report that there was trouble ahead because “birth rates dropped from three to two children per woman.” Previously, there had been a 4- or 5-to-1 ratio between workers paying into the system and retirees taking money out. That ratio has dropped almost to 2-to-1.

Meanwhile, our current issues with labor shortages and inflation will continue to be exacerbated as retirees exit the workforce and there aren’t enough young workers to replace them.

These challenges crossed my mind as I read about the recent Wall Street Journal/NORC poll (pdf) that documented how Americans are rapidly shedding traditional values, such as patriotism, faith, and family, that have defined us as a nation.

The poll found that the percentage of adults who say having children is very important to them has dropped to 30 percent in 2023 from 43 percent in 2019. This mindset, coupled with data documenting that the birth rate in the United States has fallen since 2007 to 1.64 births per woman from 2.1 (the “replacement rate” needed to sustain population levels), results in the demographic nightmare that’s slowly unfolding before our eyes.

So why has this occurred?

Writing in The Washington Post, Charles Lane said, “New financial constraints on family formation are a potential cause. ... 78 percent of adults lack confidence this generation of children will enjoy a better life than they do.”

But then he identified another culprit—how smartphones and social media have affected relationships. Young adults, in particular, no longer make personal connections that result in relationships that they hope to result in marriages and then children. Instead, they’re absorbed in playing video games, watching TikTok videos, and liking other people’s posts.

According to a 2022 American National Family Life survey, at least 56 percent of Gen Z (those born between 1997 and 2012) said they felt lonely once or twice per month. In contrast, only 24 percent of Baby Boomers felt similarly lonely as children. With fewer peers to play with than Baby Boomers had growing up, this isn’t just a coincidence.

Gen Zers often find themselves behind computer and smartphone screens, rather than gaining real-life relationships. This self-absorption also means a lot more lonely people—and a lot more of the effects loneliness has on society as a whole.

Yes, I agree that these are factors. But there’s also another factor that the Wall Street Journal/NORC poll mentions but fails to connect with the falling birth rates: the decline of the importance of faith in the lives of many Americans, with 50 percent saying faith is either not important or not very important in their lives.

I propose that it isn’t a coincidence that the drop in the birth rate has coincided with the falloff in religious faith. Why? Because religious faith, with its outward rather than inward focus, has always resulted in larger families, as faith communities see children as a blessing instead of an inconvenience to achieving one’s “self-fulfillment”—a fulfillment that used to come from God and not man.

Yes, we can probably find a Band-Aid to cover up the Social Security wound, and companies are turning increasingly to robots to deal with the labor shortage. But no solution is going to solve a lonely and isolated society that no longer has the human connections that faith and the accompanying relationships bring. A return to faith, and its accompanying commitment to marriage and family, is one factor that I’m confident will steer us clear of the demographic danger zone.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.