GasBuddy gathered data from more than 11 million individual price reports covering more than 150,000 gas stations across the nation.
The report said the national average price per gallon is down 47.9 cents from June, but it’s still $1.35 more expensive than in 2021.
The national average price of diesel declined 10.8 cents in the past week, landing at $5.54 per gallon on July 18.
“We’ve seen the national average price of gasoline decline for a fifth straight week, with the pace of recent declines accelerating to some of the most significant we’ve seen in years,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in the report.
“This trend is likely to reach a sixth straight week, with prices likely to fall again this week. Barring major hurricanes, outages or unexpected disruptions, I forecast the national average to fall to $3.99/gal by mid-August.
“So far, we’ve seen the national average drop for 34 straight days, with more than 25,000 stations now back at $3.99 per gallon or less, and thousands more stations will join this week.
“In addition, we will see several states fall back under an average of $4, the majority being in the south, but that could spread to more states in the weeks ahead.”
The decline is being driven by lower domestic demand for gas this summer and a drop of global oil prices, pushing pump prices down.
If the current supply and demand dynamics steadily hold, Americans will likely see relief at the pump for now.
“And here at home, people are fueling up less, despite this being the height of the traditional summer driving season.
“These two key factors are behind the recent drop in pump prices.”
Some analysts expect gas prices to drop below $4 in more places around the country well before mid-August, and possibly as early as the weekend of July 23 and 24.
The most common gas price currently encountered by motorists stands at $3.99 per gallon, down 30 cents from the previous week, followed by $4.19, $4.39, $4.29, and $4.49, rounding out the top five most common prices, the report read.
According to recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), demand at the pump dropped from 9.41 million barrels per day to 8.06 million barrels per day last week, while total domestic gas stocks increased by 5.8 million barrels per day.
Refineries are operating at 94.9 percent capacity, with gasoline production dropping to 8.9 million barrels per day and distillate production falling to 5.1 million barrels per day.
Gasoline inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels, while distillate inventories jumped 2.7 million barrels.
The EIA report showed a 3.3 million barrel rise in U.S. oil inventories to 427.1 million barrels, about 11 million barrels lower than during 2021.
At the same time, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to be drained by the Biden administration, falling 21.9 percent compared to last year.
The average price of oil fell to the mid-$90 per barrel range, from about $110 per barrel just two weeks prior, according to AAA.
Crude oil prices were in rally mode at the start of the week, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil up $2.24 to $99.83 per barrel, below the $101.39 price on July 11.
Brent crude oil rose higher in early trade, up $2.62 to $103.78 per barrel, slightly lower than the July 11 level of $104.16.
President Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia appears to have been unsuccessful, with no gains in significant oil production, while continued shutdowns in China are increasing the prospects that the United States will face a recession.
AAA said crude oil prices could rise in the upcoming week if the market continues to believe supply will remain tight.
The tightening of crude oil supply is being driven by slower economic growth, rising interest rates, and high inflation, but a decline in demand for oil, due to reduced economic activity, might lead to price inflation in the future.
