Australians Remain Frosty Towards China as Wariness Over Taiwan Military Threat Grows

Chinese paramilitary police guard an alley in a street next to Tiananmen Square ahead of an overnight rehearsal of a military parade to mark Communist China's 70th anniversary, in Beijing on Sept. 7, 2019. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

A new study has revealed that in the event of a military conflict between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan, just over half of Australians would be against physically entering the contest on Taiwanese soil.

However, Australians were keen to still support Taiwan, with 80 percent saying they would accept Taiwanese refugees into Australia, 76 percent supporting the imposition of economic and diplomatic sanctions on Beijing, 64 percent supporting the supply of military aid, and another 61 percent supporting the use of the Australian Navy to prevent China blockading the region around Taiwan.

The poll, completed by Sydney-based Lowy Institute, also shows that Australians persist in seeing China as a security threat, with a majority of the country continuing to believe it is “very” or “somewhat” likely that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will become a military threat to the country within the next 20 years.

“Australians don’t want to see a conflict in our region and are cautious about the country’s involvement if a war did break out,” said Ryan Neelam, the Director of the Lowy Institute’s Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program.

“But they are also prepared to stand by democracies that come under threat.”

The USS Chung-Hoon observes a Chinese navy ship conduct what it called an "unsafe” Chinese maneuver in the Taiwan Strait on June 3, 2023. The Chinese navy ship cut sharply across the path of the American destroyer, forcing the U.S. ship to slow to avoid a collision. Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Andre T. Richard/U.S. Navy via AP

Meanwhile, Australia’s trust in China has remained consistently low at just 13 percent, nearly identical to the polling results of the previous year.

Commenting on the 2022 results, Fullilove said the loss of trust resulted from the belief that the communist regime had changed.

“Its foreign policies have hardened, and its willingness to accept criticism has disappeared,” he said in 2022.

The changing attitude follows Beijing’s wolf warrior diplomatic campaign against Australia, which at its height saw Beijing utilising trade coercion and threats to manipulate the Australian government and media. The Chinese embassy in Australia even issued a list of 14 grievances that it said the country needed to address before diplomatic relations could be normalised.

These included stopping negative commentary by Australian media and MPs about the Chinese Communist Party (CCP); ending calls for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19; haltering the government’s cooperation-building efforts with Indo-Pacific partners; removing the ban on Huawei from the nation’s 5G network in 2018, and Australia’s foreign interference laws.

Russia Also Can’t Be Trusted

But China is not the only country in the proverbial doghouse with Aussies.

Australians also believe that Russia, like China, is not able to act responsibly in the world, as opposed to Japan, the United Kingdom, and France, which top the countries that Australians trust the most.

“It is hard to see trust in Russia recovering in the face of its ongoing aggression in Ukraine,” said Michael Fullilove, the executive director of the Lowy Institute.

“Well into the second year of the conflict, as Ukraine prepares its counter-offensive, Australians remain overwhelmingly in favour of providing assistance to Kyiv.”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is seen as he visits Maidan Square in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, July 3, 2022. Mr Albanese made a 12-hour-long visit to Kyiv, meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. AAP Image/Lukas Coch

Almost 85 percent support accepting Ukraine refugees, while over three-quarters support providing military aid to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, two-thirds of Australians are either “strongly” or “somewhat” in favour of the decision to acquire nuclear submarines under the AUKUS agreement.

However, more than half are uncertain or hold the belief that the submarines will not affect regional security. Almost half of Australians also don’t believe it was worth the estimated $386 billion (US$262 billion) price tag.

Security of Supply Chains Important to Australians

Additionally, the survey showed that 70 percent of Australians believed the nation needed to ensure that its supply chains ran through friendly countries, even if that meant higher prices. Conversely, 29 percent wanted to keep costs as low as possible, even if that meant supply chains went through unfriendly countries.

The results come after Australia faced a significant blow to its export industry when the CCP slapped arbitrary trade sanctions on various Australian products in retaliation to the Morrison government’s request for an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19. The ongoing situation has cost the Australian economy an estimated $20 billion (US$13.5 billion).

A Chinese paramilitary police officer gestures and speaks over his two-way radio while standing at the entrance gate of the Australian embassy in Beijing on July 9, 2020. Nicolas Asfour/AFP via Getty Images

Many Australians are also wary of Beijing’s actions in the Pacific region, with almost 90 percent of Australians remaining concerned about the potential for Beijing to open a military base in a Pacific Island country.

This deep concern follows revelations that the Solomon Islands signed a security deal with Beijing allowing troops, weapons, and naval ships to be stationed within their territory, which borders a vital regional trade route.

In March, the Solomon Islands government granted a multi-million-dollar contract to China’s largest construction company to upgrade its international port. The Chinese state-owned construction company was reportedly the only company to bid for the project.