When Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018, she became the first Arizona Democrat to serve in Congress’s upper chamber since 1994.
When she declared herself an independent and left the party in December 2022, her defection dealt a severe blow to Democrats nationwide. It was a public rebuke of Biden administration policies by a key swing-state moderate in a divided Senate.
Her most notable departure from the party line occurred in January 2022, when she and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) refused to vote in favor of changing the filibuster rules. The move earned her formal censure by the Arizona Democratic Party.
But when she announced on March 5 that she isn’t seeking a second term as an independent incumbent in a three-way race, Ms. Sinema may have given her former party a parting boost.
The race to succeed her now becomes a binary choice between presumptive candidates who are as starkly opposed as any in the 2024 U.S. election.
With Ms. Sinema’s exit, the Arizona U.S. Senate race now pits progressive five-term incumbent Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) against Republican Kari Lake, a “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) conservative with close ties to former President Donald Trump.
Both candidates have solid bases within their parties’ more partisan contingents. However, in a state where 34 percent of registered voters have no party affiliation and independents in the mold of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) remain a key voting bloc, winning Ms. Sinema’s Senate seat will involve a race from the extremes toward the middle.
“Well, look, if you’re looking at polling, certainly Ruben Gallego benefits from a one-on-one race with Kari Lake,” Phoenix Republican strategist Barreto Marson told The Epoch Times.
“I see the impact of Sinema leaving the race as a win for the Dems,” Aron Solomon, head of strategy at New Jersey-based Esquire Digital, told The Epoch Times. “There’s no way that Kari Lake beats Gallego in a simple one-on-one race.”
The National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC), however, issued a statement claiming that Ms. Lake’s odds of flipping the seat will improve with Ms. Sinema out of the race.
“An open seat in Arizona creates a unique opportunity for Republicans to build a lasting Senate majority this November,” NRSC Chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said in a statement.
“With recent polling showing Kyrsten Sinema pulling far more Republican voters than Democrat voters, her decision to retire improves Kari Lake’s opportunity to flip this seat.”
But, as Mr. Marson noted, the key for Ms. Lake is to appeal to the “Republican voters” who were supporting Ms. Sinema.
“It’s up to Kari Lake to try to bring more moderate Republicans and right-leaning independents into the fold,” he said. “She has to start messaging to them, needs to start messaging for the general election.”
Moderating the Messaging
“The person who’ll benefit the most [by Sinema’s withdrawal] will be whichever candidate moderates their messaging better,” says Bob Charles, legislative affairs director for Phoenix-based FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs.That may be easier for Mr. Gallego than for Ms. Lake, he said, not only because she is a household name identified as a MAGA personality, but also because she’ll have to maintain a sharp partisan focus to defeat Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in their July 30 GOP primary.
Although Ms. Lake “won’t have to do much” to defeat Mr. Lamb, she cannot forsake her base voters in assuming they’ll vote for her rather than the conservative sheriff, who has been campaigning for more than a year, Mr. Charles told The Epoch Times.
“For her to moderate her tone is going to be more difficult” than it will be for Mr. Gallego, he said. “Rep. Gallego is not well-known, for the most part, outside his congressional district, which is not reflective rest of the state but he can be whoever he wants to be in his campaign.
“He can have a moderate message right out of the gate.”
Arizona’s centrist sway, its “massive independent voter population,” goes deeper than the 34 percent who are non-affiliated, according to Mr. Charles, who worked for Mr. McCain on Capitol Hill and was his 2008 presidential campaign’s national coalition coordinator.
“Ninety percent of independents still stick to party” of origin when voting, he said, and many within both parties are centrists who support moderate candidates.
MAGA Versus McCain 2024
The traditional path for candidates to win a statewide Arizona election is to garner at least 90 percent of their party votes and more than half those cast by independents.
MAGA-aligned candidates—including Ms. Lake—have failed to do both since 2016. The trend has been dubbed “McCain’s revenge” in Arizona.
“You’ve got to consider that Sinema appealed to the moderate side in both parties,” much in the McCain mold, Mr. Charles said, with at least one-fifth of the state’s voters preferring her over Ms. Lake and Mr. Gallego consistently in 2024 election polling. That centrist bloc is the only common number carried over in conflicting polls.
In a Feb. 16–19 Emerson College survey of 1,000 likely voters, Mr. Gallego scored 46 percent, Ms. Lake 39 percent, and Ms. Sinema 21 percent.
A week later, in a Feb. 21–26 Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,001 likely voters, Ms. Lake netted 37 percent, Mr. Gallego 33 percent, and Ms. Sinema 21 percent. Asked about a one-on-one matchup, Rasmussen respondents favored Ms. Lake by 3 percentage points over Mr. Gallego.
The one consistency is that more than 20 percent of respondents appear to be committed moderates who favor centrist candidates, the voters from both parties who backed Mr. McCain for decades.
“It’s a great question” where these voters are going to go come November, Mr. Solomon told The Epoch Times, noting that Ms. Sinema’s exit may signal there is no centrist path, similar to what Mr. Manchin saw when looking at his 2024 reelection odds.
“I think that Sinema is someone who entered politics for the right reasons and didn’t foresee that doing politics, for lack of a more artful term, day-in-and-day-out in this incarnation of Congress would be this brutal,” he said.
Ms. Sinema leaves the race having raised more money than anyone else in it.
According to her campaign’s Dec. 31, 2023, Federal Elections Commission (FEC) filing—the latest available—it had raised $16.27 million, spent $5.8 million, and entered the year with $10.6 million on hand.
Mr. Gallego’s Dec. 31 campaign filing to the FEC reports it had raised $13.1 million, spent $7.8 million, and entered 2024 with $6.54 million cash in the kitty. Ms. Lake’s campaign’s Dec. 31 FEC report shows $2.1 million raised, $1 million spent, and $1 million in the bank.
Mr. Solomon said Ms. Sinema’s next political move will be “notable” and not in the McCain mold but “very much like what Tulsi Gabbard is doing now.”
“We are going to be hearing more from Gabbard very soon, I strongly believe,” he said, adding that Ms. Sinema will make some moves in the coming years.
He said he doubts that most of those voters will back Ms. Lake against Mr. Gallego, but “time will tell.” And time could benefit Ms. Lake, especially with some help from a friend she’s boosted loyally for four years, Mr. Charles said.
“The point that is being missed here is this: Biden–Trump. Turnout is going to determine which of these candidates win.”
