In the summer of 2013, I was with Dr. Sanela Porca of USC Aiken in taking a group of our students on their study abroad trip to London and Paris. While in London, we visited the beautiful campus of University of Greenwich, and, after the formal business was done, I had a very nice chat at a pub on the Thames, with a new friend of mine, Mr. Gordon Harwick, an accomplished business consultant from London, and an economics professor at Greenwich.
The topic of our discussion was, in fact, Britain’s potential exit from the EU! By then, the word Brexit did not exist, as it was such a remote possibility. I don’t recall too much about the conversation except we all felt that it was impossible for Great Britain to exit, as we were looking at the new skyscrapers of London’s new financial district. What I do remember vividly is the waiter at the pub that served us. He was quite stubborn, and quite a green guy as a matter of fact, as when he learned that I wanted cream in my coffee, he adamantly refused to bring it to me, instead, he lectured us on milk, cows, the gas emitted by cows, the greenhouse effect, and global warming! I was so impressed then and still impressed now at the degree and level of “globalization” of ordinary citizens of Great Britain, so when Brexit eventually is about to become reality, it is indeed quite inconceivable.
Well, that was three years ago, and three years later, so much has changed in our world and what seemed to be a completely crazy idea is now happening right in front of our eyes. But if we analyze carefully, we may conclude that the UK would, in the near future, have to go back and rejoin with the European Union.
After the referendum, David Cameron said Brexit does not mean that England is turning its back on EU, and UK still wants to maintain close relationship with the continent. That could be the wishful thinking of Mr. Cameron, now a bygone prime minister. The UK that refuses to shoulder financial burden of EU, share the problems of immigrants and refugees, yet never give up access to the common market of Europe, is not going to be acceptable by EU. If the marriage is voided and annulled, don’t expect the honey moon to continue any longer.
The UK could expect to continue trade, security, and cooperation with EU countries, that is plausible and doable, but the depth of the trade and the privileges in trading will not be the same as before the exit. Even though Cameron promised that the UK would continue to negotiate with EU on merchandise and services trade, and free flow of money and labor, the fact is, those immigration and refugee-laden countries such as Germany and France will never give in to British pressure on these issues.
The Europeans seem to have reached a consensus that only when the British starts to accept immigrants, would free trade with EU become possible. From Donald Tusk to Angela Merkel, they all say that the Brits can’t just cherry pick on their own. It is indeed like that, if the British can enjoy all the benefits of a membership without having to pay the dues, who else would not follow suit? If so, the EU is better off dissolved.
A Germany under Angela Merkel may be humble and low key, and not showing any intention to unify Europe, establish a Pan-European army, or establish a super power on the continent. But the sheer political, economic, and military muscle of Germany would make not only its European neighbors, but America as well, think twice about a dominant Germany in Europe. The British would never sleep soundly and well so long as the continent is unified and strong, and the British suspicion of not only German ambition, but that of the French as well, is always on. What German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and his French counterpart proposed, to unify Europe from security, immigration, and economy, on the other hand, is something the British would never accept.
Brexit may bring some immediate, short term benefits to the UK, such as a saving of 13 billion pounds a year of the annual dues to Brussels. Yet the long term economic losses are what the public failed to realize. When pound sterling starts to lose value even further, when London is losing its status as a financial center of the world, and as credit rating of England is dipping further down from AAA, the true costs of Brexit will emerge.
In fact, the government elites of UK should be blamed for Brexit, they were the first ones to propose the idea. The biggest mistake the Cameron government made was getting too close to the Communist government of Beijing, they were dancing with the wolves and evils! When England lost to Iceland in European Cup of soccer (UEFA Euro 2016), British media calls it the biggest shame of England. Come on gentlemen, let us be real, losing a soccer game is not a big deal, aligning with the last remaining evil regime is truly shameful.
Cameron government has supported the CCP regime, even at the expense of or in defiance of its allies of Western Europe and USA. From being the first Western power to endorse the Communist China-dominated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), to acknowledging China as “market economy”, a status even the Chinese would feel guilty to label themselves. China views the UK as a stepping stone to the European market, and the British is willing to play that role, with economic returns, and without human rights and integrity concerns.
When the fad of Brexit fades and economic losses mount, and when it becomes more obvious that the UK can’t enjoy the benefit of the membership without being a real member, the forces against Brexit will grow stronger, and rejoining the EU will become more and more attractive. The European market with 500 million consumers is simply too big and too close to the Brits, that it will never be able to let it go. I remember what Gordon told me, even the basic food stuffs in London are all imported from European countries.
It will be just a matter of time when Brexit becomes B-re-entry, as it is Great Britain’s national interests that determine the direction that UK is heading. Many in China, including Gao Zhisheng, the famous dissident in China, believe something drastic is happening in China by 2017, and the Brexit negotiation could last well into 2018. When the CCP regime falls, the people of UK will realize how deeply their government was involved with the Beijing regime. When Great Britain gets rid of the haunted shadow of Beijing, the fate of the country could then change. From another perspective, if no deal is reached by the negotiators into 2018, that may trigger a direct call of cancelling the exit talks, or initiating a new application, that will enable the UK to rejoin the EU.
By the way, our little “argument” at that English pub on the Thames was finally resolved peacefully, as I requested to have “non-diary creamer” in my coffee instead, so I did not have to drink black coffee which I really dislike. The waiter did just that, everyone was happy.
Dr. Frank Tian Xie is John M. Olin Palmetto Professor of Business and Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of South Carolina Aiken, in Aiken, SC, USA.
