Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary election pits Donald Trump and Nikki Haley in a head-to-head contest that could redefine the Republican nominating contest.
The Democratic contest will be the first in this cycle because Iowa Democrats opted for a mail-in presidential poll, ceding their first look at the candidates to the Granite State. Their primary promises an interesting result since President Joe Biden will not appear on the ballot.
Trump Leading
Trump cleaned house in the Iowa caucuses earlier this week. His 51 percent finish placed him 30 percentage points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron Desantis. Haley finished third.That margin is unlikely to be repeated in New Hampshire, where Haley has been gaining ground over the past month. She now stands at 34 percent compared to Trump’s 47 percent in an average of recent polls reported by FiveThirtyEight on Jan. 19.
Trump won the New Hampshire primary in 2016 with 35 percent of the vote in a crowded field. Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich placed second with 16 percent.
Trump may gain a boost from supporters of entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who dropped out of the race after finishing a distant fourth in Iowa and immediately joined Trump on the campaign trail.
However Ramaswamy had been polling around 5 percent in New Hampshire, and some analysts point out that not all Ramaswamy supporters will shift allegiance to Trump.
James Hartman, a Republican political consultant who supports Haley, but isn’t working on her campaign, noted, “The thing with endorsements, however, is they don’t usually translate in a one-to-one ratio when you’re changing venues because there are so many other variables.”
President Trump has sharpened his attacks against Haley recently, shifting his focus away from DeSantis.
President Trump said that Ms. Haley’s backers are “pro-amnesty, they’re pro-China, they’re pro-open borders ... they’re pro-war ... they’re pro-Biden, frankly.”
He also attacked Haley for her links to Charles Koch, a libertarian-leaning mega-donor who’s pushed for immigration amnesty and making border laws less stringent.
Haley’s Push
Haley campaigned aggressively in New Hampshire this week, holding about three events per day plus drop-in visits to country stores and diners across the state.Her strategy there has been to run directly against Trump, ignoring DeSantis. Following the Iowa caucuses, a super PAC supporting Ms. Haley began running TV ads portraying President Trump as a bully and liar. A campaign memo said he is “more vulnerable than commonly believed.”
On Tuesday Ms. Haley took a page from the Trump campaign book by refusing to debate DeSantis in New Hampshire unless Trump also took part. The former president has declined to appear in all Republican debates this season.
Referencing Trump, Haley told CNN, “That’s who I’m running against. That’s who I want.”
The move denied DeSantis a key opportunity to address voters in the runup to the election, though both candidates appeared in televised town hall meetings this week.
DeSantis Circling Wagons
DeSantis’s polling in New Hampshire had fallen into the single digits. He has all but abandoned campaigning in the state to focus on South Carolina where he hopes to defeat Haley on her own turf.While the governor insists he’s still fighting to win, some public statements display realism about his chances.
“If we’d won Iowa, we would have been in a great spot,” DeSantis told radio host Hugh Hewitt on Thursday.
“You know, coming in second gives us the ticket to continue, but I told my people this from the very beginning. I don’t want to be V.P. ... I’m in it to win it, and at some point, you know, if that’s not working out for you, like I recognize that this isn’t a vanity thing for me,” he added.
The DeSantis strategy officially is to focus on South Carolina in an attempt to defeat Haley in that state, which is more conservative than New Hampshire.
“Nikki Haley cannot compete with Donald Trump [in New Hampshire]. And the fact that she can’t do it there, she can’t do it anywhere. She’s certainly not going to do it in South Carolina,” DeSantis said.
Democrat SNAFU
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) changed its rules to make South Carolina the first state to hold a Democratic primary.New Hampshirites, whose motto is “Live Free or Die”, ignored the change, as they are legally bound to do. The state’s constitution requires the secretary of state to ensure that its primary is first in the nation, changing the date if necessary to accomplish that.
Biden did not register to be on the New Hampshire ballot but continues to poll at about 58 percent in the state.
Twenty-one other candidates will appear on the ballot, including Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who is polling at 28 percent, and author and speaker Marianne Williamson, who stands at 3 percent.
“I just hope that the New Hampshire voter will recognize this as the slap in the face that it is and not reward the president for such outrageously undemocratic behavior,” Williamson told The Epoch Times on Jan. 18.
The Democratic primary result will not count in the party’s nominating process, but it could sway public opinion at a time when many critics have challenged Biden’s fitness for a second term.
Some New Hampshire Democrats have staged a write-in campaign for Biden. The tactic has been successful in the past, as President Lyndon Johnson won the 1968 New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate. He later withdrew from the race.
Given the expected high number of write-in votes, the results of the Democratic primary are likely to be delayed due to the need to verify the votes.
Polling times vary by municipality in New Hampshire, but polls must open no later than 11 a.m. and may not close before 7 p.m.
