Two teams from Western Australia are in with a chance of finding premiership glory as the Australian Football League’s finals series heats up. But before they can reach the ultimate stage on the last Saturday in September at the MCG, both Fremantle and West Coast have two more steep hurdles each to leap over, starting this weekend in the Semi-finals.
Down to the last six teams, from here on in they’re all elimination matches as the second week of the 2012 AFL finals season gets under way on Friday night (Sept. 14) when the Adelaide Crows hosts the Fremantle Dockers in the First Semi-final at AAMI Stadium. Meanwhile, the Collingwood Magpies will host the West Coast Eagles on Saturday night (Sept. 15) in the Second Semi-final at the iconic MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground, known as the “G”). Both games will sell out.
With the weekend rapidly approaching, let’s consider a “what if” proposal that would only have been on the most-fanciful of radars a week ago.
What if the Eagles and the Dockers win this weekend and win again the next? Then they will meet in the Grand Final at the G. Never before have two teams that finished worse than fourth in the standings competed in an AFL Grand Final.
For West Coast (finishing fifth on the ladder this year) or Fremantle (seventh) to go all the way and win the premiership title, one will have won four consecutive final matches from outside the top four. To do so is considered unlikely by most pundits, as the only team to have ever achieved that feat was Adelaide 14 years ago (fifth in 1998).
Adelaide (second) and Collingwood (fourth) may have gotten a reprieve by way of their second chance after loosing their Qualifying Finals; meanwhile, Hawthorn (first) and Sydney (third) have a rest-week for winning theirs – they progressed directly to the Preliminary Finals where they will meet the winners of the Collingwood vs West Coast and the Adelaide vs Fremantle games, respectively, on Sept. 21 and 22. Then the winners of the Preliminary Finals will meet in the Grand Final on Sept. 29.
Dockers vs Crows
Last weekend, the Fremantle Dockers bundled the reigning premiers, the Geelong Cats, out of the finals race in dramatic fashion. The Dockers scored five goals and seven behinds in the first quarter, to the Cats’ solitary behind, to take a 36-point match-winning lead into the second quarter: Geelong 0.1 (1) to Fremantle 5.7 (37).
Such first quarter dominance wins premierships. And for Freo to do that to a Cats outfit that is one of the greatest teams of all time—on the oval where they stamped that illustrious claim by winning three out of the last five Grand Finals—certainly means that the once-troubled team from WA are on the verge of something special.
Entering the Second Elimination Final, Geelong were the red-hot favorites to win on the MCG, caught cat-napping, they had no answers as the Dockers ran unchecked for those first 30 minutes. As one would expect, the 2011 premiers fought back. Geelong never headed the out-of-state visitors, but could have won if not for poor kicking at goal—they had one less scoring shot by the final siren, missing some very gettable set shots at goal: Geelong 11.14 (80) to Fremantle 14.12 (96).
Take nothing away from Fremantle though, they looked like the genuine article on Saturday (Sept 8).
Six days later and in front of a more hostile crowd than the MCG’s, traveling for the second consecutive week for the first time this year, the Dockers, will have to be at their very best to quell the Crows.
The Crows have had an admittedly soft 22 game season draw, where they finished second on the ladder out of 18 teams. This left them with the reward of a home Qualifying Final, with a chance to redeem themselves in a second home final if they were to loose their first—which they did to the Sydney Swans by 31 points: Adelaide 5.12 (42) to Sydney 11.5 (71).
Adelaide’s performance was at times ... well, insipid. Yes, Sydney were great again, applying their defensive and attacking pressure to perfection. However, the Crows seemed to allow the Swans to dictate how the game would be played from the start. For a team to finish the season in such a lofty position and then to kick just five goals on home turf deserves ridicule. One simply expects more.
In the coming weekend’s First Semi-final at AAMI Stadium, Adelaide will take some confidence onto the field against Fremantle, having beaten them twice this year, with the latest a 20-point win last month at the same venue. However, the Dockers have momentum and certainly now have many believing that they can beat any team anywhere anytime.
If Adelaide and Fremantle play the same way that they did in their respective games last weekend, then Fremantle will have their 10th win out of their last 11 matches. And they will have gotten over the first of their two remaining hurdles in their quest to reach a Grand Final.
Eagles vs Magpies
The same could be said for the coming West Coast Eagles and Collingwood Magpies Second Semi-final.
On Sunday (Sept 9) the Eagles smashed the North Melbourne Kangaroos by 96 points in the First Elimination Final at Patersons Stadium. The actual score-line is not important—what is important is that it was a whopping 16 goals. Yes, West Coast were hosting their opponents. But, again, this is a final. The Kangaroos will have some serious soul-searching ahead having been eliminated in such a comprehensive fashion. They may have been the eighth team in the standings, but by no means did they scrape in to make the finals—or so the ‘Roos would have hoped.
The Eagles? They were rampant, unstoppable, irrepressible ... simply inexorable. Delivering such a relentless thumping in the finals underlines their early to mid-season premiership fancy status. Enough said.
On Friday (Sept 7), Collingwood were comfortably beaten in their Qualifying Final by the Hawthorn Hawks: 20.15 (135) to 15.7 (97). In all fairness, the Hawks were far-superior to the patchy Magpies. The top of the ladder Hawks “hosted” the fourth placed Magpies on MCG’s neutral ground (for these two Melbourne-based teams), so traveling or venue were not factors.
Fortunately for Collingwood, their ladder position – by virtue of another cushioning draw – saved them from elimination. Admittedly, they were playing Hawthorn who have carried their pre-season premiership favoritism through the whole year, but the ‘Pies have looked vulnerable all too often in their home-and-away matches.
The Eagles should be confident entering this match. Their current outstanding form along with recent clashes shows they can out-perform the ‘Pies. In the penultimate round of the season three weeks ago, West Coast hosted Collingwood at Patersons Stadium and comprehensively defeated the black and white visitors by 49 points. However, earlier in the year Collingwood defeated the Eagles by just three points at the MCG.
Exclusions that hurt
By this time in a grueling year, all teams without exception will understandably have important players missing finals due to injuries—with all players carrying a niggle or two—the list is long. Such omissions and weaknesses that greatly affect a team’s balance are regrettable and unfortunate at best, but suspensions for undisciplined indiscretions cannot be looked at sympathetically.
A case in point was an off the ball incident by Collingwood’s captain Nick Maxwell that cost him two weeks on the side-lines—if the ‘Pies win through the next two games, he will be available for the Grand Final, but if they stumble this weekend, his suspension will carry over to next season. If last year’s Grand Finalists weren’t looking fragile enough, Maxwell’s suspension deepens their line-up concerns that may see them exiting the final series in straight sets.
Adelaide, also staring down the barrel of such an ignominious exit, will miss the AFL Rising Star award recipient Daniel Talia with a broken arm, which could prove very costly. The in-form key defender would have stood alongside Fremantle’s super-star Captain Matthew Pavlich, who, while carrying an ankle injury, is coming off a six-goal haul against Geelong.
What if ... ?
While fans of AFL outside Australia will be looking for a nearby Irish Pub where they will likely catch a game this weekend, those in Australia who aren’t at the stadia will likely be glued to the TV coverage. Some will be pondering a horrendous outcome, while others are daring to dream ... What if ... ?
For the statisticians ... both of the Grand Finalists came from outside the top four, ensuring that one will win the 2012 Premiership title and buck a 13-year trend?
For the Victorian supporter tragics ... there is an AFL Grand Final where both teams are from the same state that is not Victoria?
For the WA supporter dreamers ... this year we will have an all-West Australian team Grand Final?
For the optimists ... What if last week’s form is anything to go by?
Then, both Fremantle and West Coast will be one hurdle closer to the premiership title after the Semis.
And lastly, for the realists ... What if neither gets through the Semis, let alone the Prelims? No-one will be surprised.
