The IEA report forecasts that global energy demand will fall by an unprecedented 6 percent in 2020—seven times the decline measured in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis.
Energy Drop Indicates Death Toll, Economic Loss
The IEA report suggests that advanced economies will bear the brunt of the CCP virus pandemic, with energy demand forecast to fall by 9 percent in the United States and by up to 11 percent in the European Union.Industrial, household, and business electricity use patterns have changed dramatically, with overall demand declining by 20 percent or more and weekday consumption resembling pre-crisis Sunday patterns for nations with full lockdowns in place. Global electricity demand is expected to fall by around 5 percent this year—the largest decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Decline in CO² Emissions Nothing to Celebrate
Global declines in the use of coal and oil mean that energy-related CO² emissions are forecast to decline by almost 8 percent in 2020, to approximately 2010 levels.Winners, but Short Term: Wind, Solar, Nuclear
According to the IEA, energy sources such as wind, solar photovoltaics, and nuclear have increased their share of energy mixes, as they cannot easily be switched off and government policies mandating the use of renewables in many countries lock in their priority-supplier status.In order to reduce electricity flows to the grid, operators are electing to reduce coal-fired generation and cover peaks and troughs in demand with fewer gas-fired turbines.
The report projects that coal-fired electricity generation will decline by 10 percent globally in 2020, while natural gas-fired generation will likely decline by 5 percent. However, the report states elsewhere that the global thermal coal industry will be affected less severely than the oil or gas industries, as coal is less susceptible to supply-chain and logistical disruptions, and coal storage capacity is not a limiting factor—unlike for its fossil-based cousins.
Implications
According to the IEA, “This unprecedented situation and the stimulus packages that governments are putting in place will shape the energy sector for years to come,” with what it called “significant consequences” for the energy industry as a whole, future energy security, and Green New Deal-style energy transition programs.“Low prices and low demand in all subsectors will leave energy companies with weakened financial positions and often strained balance sheets,” states the IEA report. Energy sources and industries that enjoy a degree of insulation from market variations—such as renewable electricity projects—are likely to emerge in the strongest financial position, while private firms most directly exposed to market prices and demand collapses will experience “the most severe financial impacts,” leading to increased market concentration and a slew of consolidations.
The IEA’s view of the oil and gas industries is particularly gloomy. Even with attempts at coordinated management of the oil industry, “a disorderly production shutdown is likely in some places,” says the report. For natural gas and LNG, the report suggests that “US LNG has played a major role in improving energy security and market efficiency in several regions, but the ongoing challenging market conditions risk significant shut-in of US LNG facilities.”
Strong US Position Going Forward
In an opinion piece in the Washington Examiner last week, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette wrote that the energy independence policies pursued by the current administration have placed the United States in a relative position of power as both the world’s largest producer and consumer of energy.“This new reality is a direct consequence of Trump’s prioritizing American energy independence and enacting smart policies to make it a reality—right-sizing regulations, cutting bureaucratic red tape, cutting taxes, advocating for American energy exports, and focusing the U.S. Department of Energy on next-generation energy innovation,” said Brouillette. “As long as we are producing, we can continue to look after our interests. And as long as we are consuming, cartels will look for access to our economy, and for mutually beneficial energy engagements.”
According to Brouillette, “Stability has been brought to the markets, we have new confidence in their resiliency, and together, we have the hope for better days, for an end to the crisis, and a return to prosperity. It’s going to happen, and America will lead the way.”