North Dakota farmer Dwight Grotberg wanted to plant more wheat this spring to capitalize on soaring prices since Ukraine’s war cut grain exports and left the world short of millions of tons of wheat supply.
Heavy rain has prevented Grotberg from planting as much wheat crop as he wanted and is hampering farmers across the state, the top U.S. grower of spring wheat.
Instead of boosting supply, North Dakota expected to plant wheat over the smallest share of its farmland on record, according to government data.
The United States is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and problems are hitting output at a time when the world can ill afford to lose any more supplies of the staple grain amid a global food crisis.
Benchmark Chicago Board of Trade wheat prices surged 50 percent to more than $13.60 a bushel after Ukraine’s conflict halted shipments of nearly a third of the world’s wheat exports, and little has gone right for wheat since then.
Worsening harvest prospects in China and parts of Europe, followed by an export ban by major producer India, have tightened stocks and exacerbated global food supply concerns.
The United Nations has warned the impact of the war on grains, oils, fuel, and fertilizer could throw millions of people into famine and take years to resolve.
Washington has been calling on U.S. farmers to seed more winter wheat this autumn, and the government said it would allow planting on some environmentally sensitive land beginning this fall. But the drought and costly farm inputs could limit production gains, say, grain analysts.
There are two wheat crops in the United States: spring wheat planted now, and winter wheat planted in autumn that will be harvested soon. Both are in trouble.
The problems with the spring wheat planting faced by farmers like Grotberg come after drought hit the winter wheat crop in Kansas, the top growing state.
The U.S. winter wheat harvest potential there has fallen by more than 25 percent due to severe drought. Kansas farmers may abandon thousands of acres of wheat in fields this year, instead of paying to harvest the drought-scorched grain.
Back in North Dakota, it is too much water that is the problem. A historic April blizzard left the state’s expansive, pothole-dotted fields under more than 3 feet of snow in some areas, triggering floods as the deluge melted.
Grotberg has only been able to plant about 500 acres with wheat so far—just a quarter of the land he had aimed to sow—because of the wet conditions.
Seeds sown in soggy soils can struggle to emerge or come up unevenly, while heavy farm machinery can tear up overly muddy fields, compact soils, or get lodged in the muck.
Now, Grotberg’s planting window is closing fast.
Wheat planted too late in the spring is likely to yield less grain or be at risk of frost before the crop fully ripens.
Slowest Spring Planting Since 1996
Soggy spring weather has all but ensured that the northern U.S. Plains breadbasket will not produce a bumper crop this year.U.S. farmers have only seeded 49 percent of their intended spring wheat acres as of May 22, matching 2014 for the slowest pace since 1996, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
In North Dakota, which produces about half of U.S. spring wheat, growers have planted just 27 percent of their crop, the second slowest pace in four decades.
“Some farmers have not turned a wheel yet,” said North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring. “If North Dakota is not able to get a substantial amount in, it’s just going to wreak more havoc on the global market.”
Abandoning Shriveled Winter Wheat
In the southern U.S. Plains, winter wheat farmers have received very little rain and are concerned about the size of their harvest—or if the shriveled plants will simply need to be plowed under.About 6 percent of the planted acres in Kansas would be abandoned, according to the latest USDA estimates. But given the drought damage, Kansas State University wheat agronomist Romulo Lollato thinks the abandonment rate would be higher.
“I would not be surprised if 8 percent, 9 percent, 10 percent” of planted acres are abandoned this year, Lollato said.
Disappearing Wheat Acres
U.S. wheat output has been on longer-term decline as farmers favored corn and soybean production.As the planting window in the northern Plains narrows, North Dakota farmers are weighing options that include shifting to soybeans, which can be sown later in the spring than wheat, or filing prevented planting insurance claims.
“It gets pretty tempting to file those claims,” Grotberg said. “Once you get into June, you might be lucky to get half a crop. And with costs as high as they are, that’s hard to stomach.”
