US Monitors CCP Power Struggles Affecting Xi Jinping

(L-R) Newly-elected Chinese state councilor Qin Gang, state councilor and secretary-general of the State Council Wu Zhenglong, state councilor Li Shangfu swear an oath after they were elected during the fifth plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 12, 2023. NOEL CELIS/AFP via Getty Images

At a critical juncture of the power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), both Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defense Minister Li Shangfu face challenges. Xi Jinping’s efforts to purge senior military officials seem to be expanding, with unconfirmed reports suggesting that four out of seven members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) are in jeopardy.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel took a rare step by commenting on social media platform X, likening Xi Jinping’s cabinet lineup to characters from Agatha Christie’s novel, “And Then There Were None.”

Further, amid the ongoing turmoil within the CCP, Ambassador Emanuel once again turned the spotlight on Xi Jinping, openly labeling him as “incompetent” in economics and a “failure” in diplomacy. Concurrently, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock publicly criticized Xi Jinping, calling him a “dictator.”

CMC Members Face Problems

Rumors persist that four of seven members of the CMC are facing potential troubles. The CMC comprises seven members, with Xi Jinping as chairman and Zhang Youxia and He Weidong as vice chairmen. The remaining four members include Li Shangfu, Zhang Shengmin, Liu Zhenli, and Miao Hua, who is a close confidant of Xi Jinping.

There are noticeable signs indicating an expansion of Xi Jinping’s purging of senior military officials. On Sept. 15, for example, the CCP’s military organized an educational conference centered on “Xi Jinping Thought.” In attendance were Vice Chairman of the CMC He Weidong, CMC member Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin. Notably absent were CMC member Liu Zhenli, Defense Minister Li Shangfu (rumored to be under investigation), and Vice Chairman of the CMC Zhang Youxia.

Liu Zhenli, the youngest active general within the CCP military, played a role in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War under the command of General Zhang Youxia, the first vice chairman of the CMC, who experienced the Vietnam War firsthand. His notable absence from a recent CMC meeting during this sensitive period has left his future within the CCP uncertain.

In addition to Liu Zhenli, another crucial member of the CMC, Zhang Shengmin, who also serves as the secretary of the CMC Commission for Discipline Inspection, is under scrutiny. While he was not absent from the Sept. 15th meeting, unconfirmed reports suggest that he encountered an issue the following day.

On Sept. 18, independent commentator Cai Shenkun, who previously broke the news of Li Shangfu’s downfall on X, once again posted on X, indicating that Zhang Shengmin faced a significant issue on Sept. 16. If proven true, this would reduce Xi Jinping’s nominees for the CMC this year to He Weidong and Miao Hua.

Simultaneously, on the same day (Sept. 18), former CCP Foreign Ministry official Han Lianchao disclosed on social media platform X that Zhang Shengmin was taken away for investigation from his home at midnight on Sept. 16. Zhang Shengmin previously served as the political commissar of the Logistic Support Department of the Military Commission and may be linked to the Li Shangfu case.

The Sept. 15th CMC meeting witnessed the unusual absence of three out of the seven members, along with one member reportedly facing issues afterward, making this a remarkable and rare occurrence.

Intense Power Struggle at the Top

Since Xi Jinping came to power, the anti-corruption campaign during his first two terms largely eliminated the influence of Jiang Zemin’s faction in the top echelons of the party. As Xi Jinping entered his third term, the Xi faction’s influence fully consolidated at the core of power.

Despite expectations that anti-corruption efforts might dwindle during his third term, a large-scale anti-corruption campaign has emerged, targeting key figures personally promoted by Xi Jinping, including Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, senior officials in the Rocket Force, and current members of the CMC.

These recent developments have raised questions about Xi Jinping’s true intentions in addressing corruption and his current status, prompting various speculations.

Zhao Lanjian, a seasoned investigative journalist hailing from mainland China, was the first to break the news regarding Li Shangfu being under investigation. On Sept. 15, Mr. Zhao, citing domestic sources, exclusively revealed that following Li Shangfu’s arrest, he promptly confessed and implicated eight officials from the National Defense Ministry’s Equipment Development Department. Six of them held the rank of deputy minister, while two held positions at the bureau level.

During an interview with New Tang Dynasty Television (NTD) on Sept. 16, Mr. Zhao clarified a prevailing misconception among Western media regarding the challenges faced by military and foreign affairs officials, asserting that these issues extend beyond mere “corruption” problems.

He emphasized that the situation involves aligning loyalties, strategic alliances, and ideological battles that will influence China’s future. Zhao Lanjian argued that labeling it solely as corruption oversimplifies the matter, as corruption is widespread within China’s military and administrative apparatus. He contended that the Xi Jinping administration utilizes ‘corruption’ as a pretext to address the multifaceted challenges.

Professor Yuan Hongbing, a prominent Chinese liberal legal scholar currently residing in Australia, offered insights during an interview with The Epoch Times. He revealed that insiders within the CCP have shared information with him, indicating that Li Yuchao, the former commander of the Rocket Force, was reported to the CMC for being “two-faced” by his secretary. Li Yuchao outwardly supported Xi Jinping’s Taiwan strategy for military action, but privately aligned with his Rocket Force colleagues who favored the perspective of the military princeling Liu Yazhou. Liu Yazhou believed that launching an attack on Taiwan now would likely result in failure.

Yuan Hongbing, along with former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, both were alumni of Peking University. He had brief personal interactions with Xi Jinping. Yuan Hongbing shared that Xi Jinping viewed this denunciation as evidence of the Rocket Force’s political disloyalty, opposing his strategic arrangements for a Taiwan Strait conflict. Subsequently, Xi Jinping initiated a comprehensive purge within the Rocket Force.

US Ambassador Openly Criticizes Xi Jinping

In response to the ongoing political upheaval within the CCP, Ambassador Emanuel has taken the unusual step of publicly criticizing Xi Jinping, denouncing his government as chaotic.

In a recent statement, Ambassador Emanuel directly criticized Xi Jinping, labeling him as “an incompetent steward of the economy, a foreign-policy failure, and a bumbling would-be Machiavellian whose government is a mess.”

Simultaneously, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock referred to Xi Jinping as a “dictator” on Sept. 14, expressing concerns about the implications for other dictators worldwide if Russia were to prevail in the ongoing war in Ukraine.

However, it’s important to note that referring to Xi Jinping as a dictator is not an isolated incident. On June 20 of this year, U.S. President Joe Biden also referred to Xi Jinping as a “dictator” during an event in California and refused to retract his statement, insisting it was not a slip of the tongue.

Such open criticism of the CCP’s leader by high-ranking officials in Western governments is highly unusual. Dr. Zhang Tianliang, a prominent expert in Chinese and American politics, as well as a distinguished historian and cultural scholar, believes that this event signifies something “unusual.” He suggests that the United States is likely aware of a significant internal power struggle occurring within the highest ranks of the CCP, prompting the need to express a clear stance.

US Previously Intervened in CCP Power Struggles

Mr. Zhang, on Sept. 18, highlighted the history of U.S. involvement during critical moments of power struggles within the CCP over the past few decades. He noted, “Every time there is a power struggle at the top of the CCP and the legitimacy of the top leader is in question, that leader seeks legitimacy from the United States.”

In past instances, such as the Lin Biao incident and the Tiananmen Square incident, CCP’s top leadership sought support from the United States to resolve their political crises.

During the Cultural Revolution, when Lin Biao’s split from Mao Zedong caused significant unrest, Mao sought legitimacy by inviting then-U.S. President Richard Nixon to visit China in 1972. Mr. Zhang believes that this was a measure taken by Mao to address his political crisis.

Similarly, following the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, Deng Xiaoping faced immense domestic and international pressures, leading to a decline in his political prestige. However, covert support from President George H.W. Bush helped ease Western economic sanctions swiftly. These historical events underscore the strategic significance of U.S. involvement during critical power struggles within the CCP.

Mr. Zhang indicates that Ambassador Emanuel’s strong criticism of Xi Jinping likely reflects a consensus among high-ranking officials in the Democratic Party government. By openly criticizing Xi, they intend to signal their support for a change in leadership within the CCP. This stance puts Xi Jinping in a precarious position, prompting his decision to dispatch Wang Yi to meet with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, possibly aiming to restore relations with the United States and regain American support.

Mr. Zhang speculates that one of the key discussion topics between Wang Yi and Mr. Sullivan could revolve around arranging for Xi Jinping to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in San Francisco, California, in November, with a focus on ensuring a warm reception for him. Xi Jinping is in urgent need of support from the U.S. government, although the final outcome remains uncertain.