One incumbent has the support of the state’s Republican establishment and its leading industries and says his opponent is a carpetbagging professional politician with no interests beyond his own career.
The other incumbent has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump and describes his opponent as a “RINO” out of step with the Make America Great Again movement.
Both sitting Republican congressmen square off in Tuesday’s primary that will leave only one standing after an acrimonious West Virginia election that national observers say could portend the future of the GOP.
The race between six-term incumbent Rep. David McKinley (R), 75, and four-term incumbent Rep. Alex Mooney (R), 50, in the state’s newly reconfigured Congressional District 2 is the featured event of West Virginia’s 2022 primaries.
After West Virginia lost one of its congressional districts in post-2020 Census reapportionment, McKinley and Mooney were left vying for the same seat.
The McKinley-Mooney race is one of two congressional primaries on West Virginia’s ballot, which does not include any statewide elections.
In West Virginia’s other congressional race, incumbent U.S. Rep. Carol Miller (R) is an overwhelming favorite to cruise past four GOP primary challengers and win a third term representing the state’s newly refashioned Congressional District 1 in November’s general election.
Miller’s campaign had raised more than $530,000 as of April 20, according to its Federal Elections Commission (FEC) filing, dwarfing her primary opponents’ caches.
Miller is also expected to cruise to victory in November’s general election when she faces Democrat Eugene Watson, a Bluefield State College instructor running unopposed.
McKinley and Mooney also have company within the GOP field with three other Republicans on the ballot. Collectively, the three other contenders had raised less than $32,000, while the two front-runners are expected to spend an estimated combined $6 million on their campaigns.
As with Miller, the survivor in 2nd District GOP primary is projected to easily defeat the winner of the Democratic primary. That race is between security operations manager and mother of seven Angela Dwyer of Martinsburg and Barry Wendell of Morgantown, a former two-term Morgantown City Council member.
Trump easily won West Virginia in 2020 by 38.9 points, down from 42.1 points in 2016. He captured nearly 69 percent of the state’s vote; only Wyoming had a marginally higher percentage.
CQ Roll Call, FiveThirtyEight, and Cook Report all classify West Virginia as “solid red” and “safe Republican” and predict the 2022 vote will confirm that.
But which Republican party prevails Tuesday has national pundits watching the McKinley-Moody race closely as a pivotal clash between the GOP establishment, as represented by McKinley, and the party’s insurgent Trump MAGA wing championed by Mooney.
Trump entered the race in November when he endorsed Mooney as “a proud America First conservative” and called McKinley “a RINO who supported the ‘Unfrastructure Bill’ and the Sham January 6th Unselect Committee.”
During a May 3 “Get Out The Vote Telephone Rally” staged by Mooney’s campaign, the former president called in to reiterate his “total backing.”
“We have to make sure that we vote for this great gentleman, a friend of mine, and really a warrior in every sense,” Trump said during the tele-rally. “Alex is an American First warrior, a House of Representatives person that I call, and he’s always been there for me.”
Mooney is also supported by the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, the House Freedom Fund, American Conservative Union, FreedomWorks PAC, and Republican U.S. Reps. Ronny Jackson of Texas and Lauren Boebert of Colorado.
Mooney will be the second major Trump endorsement to be tested at the polls. Trump-backed Ohio GOP U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Vance won his hotly contested primary battle on May 3.
McKinley was among only 13 of 209 House Republicans to vote for the Jan. 6 commission.
After opposing “Build Back Better” when the House approved it in a partisan vote, McKinley voted for the failed compromise measure that U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin—West Virginia’s only statewide-elected Democrat—attempted to cobble together.
Those two votes and Trump’s endorsement are about all that separate Mooney and McKinley, who both share the same legislative priorities—securing the border, defending the Second Amendment, rebuilding the economy, advocating for the state’s coal industry, abolishing abortion, supporting law enforcement and veterans, and battling opioid addiction.
Despite being called a “RINO” by the former president, McKinley burnished his MAGA credentials in a May 5 Facebook statement, noting, “I stood with President Trump 92 percent of the time—more than Alex Mooney—to build the border wall and defend his ‘America First Agenda.'”
McKinley has also secured significant endorsements because of his infrastructure vote, which will bring up to $6 billion in needed improvements to the state.
In addition to Manchin, Democrat-turned-Republican Gov. Jim Justice, former Trump administration U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the state’s Chamber of Commerce, the West Virginia Manufacturers Association, and the Gas and Oil Association of West Virginia are all backing McKinley.
One organization that has made no endorsements in the race is the West Virginia Republican Party, which several media outlets reported was backing Mooney.
Not true, said State GOP Committee Chair Mark Harris in a statement.
“The WVGOP has been and is neutral in this primary cycle. Period. End of story,” Harris said. “Neither the state party nor its steering committee have voted to endorse ANY candidate for partisan public office this cycle. No such an endorsement has ever taken place.”
Before Trump issued his endorsement, McKinley was leading in polls by 15 to 20 percent. That advantage was whittled back to about 5 percent in March, and he now appears to be trailing — and doing so significantly.
According to an April 27-May 4 MetroNews West Virginia Poll of 350 “likely” Republican voters in the 27-county CD 2 released May 6, Mooney led 48 percent to 33 percent over McKinley.
How prescient that poll proves to be will be determined by Tuesday’s turnout and how many unaffiliated voters participate. West Virginia’s voting rules allow independents to vote in either party’s primaries.
According to the West Virginia Secretary of State’s office, there are about 448,900 registered Republicans who constitute 36.8 percent of the electorate; about 444,600 registered Democrats, or 36.5 percent; and 275,000 unaffiliated registered voters, or about 22.6 percent. The influence of independent voters who lean Republican is evident in the GOP’s decade-long dominance in the state.
With less than 60,000 casting ballots during the state’s April 27-May 7 early voting period, the winner in Tuesday’s 2nd District primary could be largely driven by Election Day turnout.
Most expected participation in the primaries to be typical for a non-presidential election year in West Virginia, especially without any statewide elections on the ballot.
During the 2020 primaries, 449,077 West Virginians, or 36.53 percent, cast ballots, with 63.25 percent, or 802,726 showing up for the general election.
During the 2018 midterms, 320,937, or 26.13 percent, voted in the primary elections, with 597,149, or 47.93 percent, casting ballots in the general election.
