The state of Arizona may flip back to President Donald Trump, according to George Khalaf the president of Data Orbital, a Phoenix-based data analysis and political consulting firm.
“People are making a mistake with equating the ballots that are left that came in early [with] the early ballots that were sent back in the mail,” he said.
“Unlike in other states, it’s actually the inverse in Arizona. Democrats dominated early ballots that were mailed back earlier in the cycle, and Republicans absolutely dominated ballots that arrived between last Friday and election day,” he added. “Like how they dominated Election Day itself.”
Khalaf said Democrats initially had a 1 percent advantage for the results counted early on in the night of the election, but Republicans have “a 20 percent advantage of the ballots that have yet to be counted.”
Khalaf said that, based on their data, “we strongly feel that it [Arizona] will flip back to President trump ... we feel like he will win a narrow victory.”
“At this point we are expecting him to win anywhere between 0.5 and 1 percent,” he said.
The election operation in Arizona is “very robust,” according to Khalaf. He noted that the biggest issue now in the state is probably the concern surrounding Sharpies.
Khalaf noted that ballots are still being counted and that it’s going to take a number of days.
“The most important thing is that every state is unique,” he said. “What you’re seeing in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, is not what you’re seeing in Arizona.”