The 2012 Tour de France, the world’s most prestigious cycling race, starts this Saturday, in—Belgium.
Not unusual for it not to start in France—the tour often starts in neighboring nations, even across the channel in England in 2007 and it may even start in Corsica in 2013.
From the Prologue in Liège until the tour ends in Paris in July, riders spend 21 days covering 2,173 miles through plains, over hills, and up mountains. A quarter of the field will have to withdraw, beaten down by the miles; the winner will have just a few days to prepare for the Olympics.
The 2012 route includes nine flat stages, four medium-mountain stages, and five high-mountain stages, with two summit finishes. It also features a Prologue and two individual time trials. The winner will need to be a great climber, who can time-trial and has a very strong team to protect him on the plains and climbs.
This year that winner looks to be Great Britain’s Bradley Wiggins. Wiggins was a favorite in 2011 but crashed early, breaking his collarbone. He is back for 2012 leading the strongest team in professional cycling, the British Sky team.
Sky showed itself to be the team to beat with a sprint classification win in the Tour Down Under, followed by stage wins in Qatar, Tirreno–Adriatico, and Volta ao Algarve. Richie Porte took the General Classification (GC) in Algarve, where Wiggins got his first stage win of the year.
Wiggins followed that with a stage and GC win in Paris-Nice, two stages, and the overall in the Tour de Romandie, and a stage and the overall in the Critérium du Dauphiné. Sky also won the team classification in Romandie and the Dauphiné, and the Critérium International.
Wiggins and the 2012 parcours are tailored for each other. The 32-year-old is a time-trial specialist who learned how to climb. The past several tours have been won by climbers, riders who cracked their opposition with powerful attacks on the steepest slopes.
Wiggins has been winning with a different strategy. More than competent on the climbs, he can open gaps over his rivals in the time trial stages, which they cannot close up in the mountains. With two time trial stages, the Sky leader can bury his uphill opponents on his own turf.
Beyond Wiggins, Sky has the fastest man in the World, Mark Cavendish. The “Manx Missile” has already taken nine wins in 2012, and is sure to add several more to his impressive tour record.
Sky will be sending Bradley Wiggins, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Mark Cavendish, Michael Rogers, Chris Froome, Bernhard Eisel, Richie Porte, Kanstantsin Siutsou, and Christian Knees to the Tour: a strong lead-out train for Cavendish and plenty of climbing power to escort Wiggins through the mountains. No team has as much firepower and such good form this year.
To make things easier for the Brits, some of the top rivals are either not attending or not on strong teams.
2011 winner Cadel Evans rode the best race of his life to take the win, but he was aided by the crashes, which slowed or sidelined his top two rivals.
One of those rivals, Alberto Contador, was trying to win the 2011 Tour after a victory in the Giro d'Italia. It may have been too much for the Spanish champion; the normally dominating climber looked weak even before crashes set him back. This year, Contador will not be at the tour. His suspension for failing a blood test lasts until Aug. 5.
Another favorite......
Another favorite, RadioShack-Nissan’s Andy Schleck, crashed during the Dauphiné and fractured his pelvis. Schleck finished second to Contador in 2010 by 39 seconds. In 2011 he lost the yellow to Cadel Evans in the Stage 20 time trial. This year he will focus on being fit for the Olympics.
And Evans, the defending champion? Evans showed his grit in the Dauphiné, but his team showed its weaknesses. BMC is a fine team with a lot of great riders, but it lacks the concentrated firepower to protect Evans on the toughest climbs. Also, Evans lacked time-trialing form in the Dauphiné.
Of course, the Australian rider might be peaking later than Wiggins; Evans might be perfectly on form for the tour. Still, cycling is a team sport, and Wiggins has the team.
Unlikely Year for American Teams
Four American teams entered in 2011, and three did well. Winner Cadel Evans rode for the U.S.-based, Swiss-funded BMC team. HTC-Highroad dominated the sprint stages and the Points Classification, while Garmin-Cervelo won the Team Classification and four stages. Only RadioShack didn’t score—crashes and injuries wiped out the team’s GC contenders.
RadioShack will be back, though only Frank Schleck, and not his brother Andy, will ride. Otherwise the team has some challengers like Andreas Klöden and Chris Horner, but they might be getting a bit old to challenge over 21 stages.
Garmin is now Garmin-Barracuda, and just like last year they have some of the second best riders in the race. Sprinter Tyler Farrar is fast, but not quite as fast as Cavendish. Team leader Ryder Hesjedal, a Canadian, is good, but still young; he did win the Giro d'Italia, but since then he hasn’t shown the legs or the technique to beat Wiggins and the Sky brigade.
Christian Vande Velde is another great American rider on Garmin, but an older version of Hesjedal. Vande Velde was almost a superstar but a little bad luck stole his best chances. Now he will be a great support for the best American; but neither will likely be good enough.
HTC dissolved; once the team with the most wins in cycling, HTC is now defunct. A lot of its firepower went to Sky; the rest scattered.
BMC has two notable Americans, George Hincapie, riding his record-setting 17th Tour, and Tejay Van Garderen, an excellent young American rider who probably will win a Grand Tour or two in his career—but not this year. Like Hesjedal and Vande Velde, these are really fine riders whose time has either yet to come or has passed. Neither will have quite enough to get Evans back to the top of the podium.
America has a few very good riders coming up. Along with Van Garderen and Ryder Hesjedal, Garmin-Barracuda’s Andrew Talansky and Peter Stetina show promise. Stetina did well in the Giro, helping Hesjedal win, and Talansky took second overall in the Tour de Romandie.
In fact, Garmin-Barracuda might be America’s best hope for cycling success. The Schlecks are rumored to be leaving RadioShack; Garmin has the greatest depth of young riders. Hesjedal, Talansky, and Stetina could become household names—at least among homes with cycling fans.
But not this year. This year belongs to Bradley Wiggins and Sky.
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