Democrats created a rising tide of blue victories on Nov. 7 that swept over two state legislatures, one governor’s mansion, a state supreme court, and a pair of ballot initiatives.
The results of the night, though not entirely one-sided, reveal that the Democratic Party has gained momentum by leveraging abortion and railing against what they describe as right-wing extremism.
The GOP, with some exceptions, appeared to be stuck in neutral.
1. Democrats Can Win in Red States
Former President Donald Trump won Kentucky by 26 percentage points in 2020, yet Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear was elected to a second term embracing a message of unity and distancing himself from President Joe Biden.
That bodes well for moderate Democrats in 2024, not so much for President Biden.
Kentucky has a Republican supermajority in the state Legislature. Republicans have won the state in nine of the past 11 presidential elections and have captured U.S. Senate races in Kentucky since 1998. However, only two Republicans have been elected governor of Kentucky in the past 50 years.
Mr. Beshear owned a 16-percentage point lead in an early October poll released by Emerson College. On Nov. 3, Emerson College published a survey that showed that the race was in a dead heat, with both candidates at 47 percent.
In 2019, Mr. Beshear defeated incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin by about 5,000 votes. He won on Nov. 7 by about 67,000 votes, according to The Associated Press.
The governor consistently told reporters that President Biden wasn’t relevant to what was happening in Kentucky and that the race was solely about the present and future of the state.
Voters apparently believed Mr. Beshear, who also helped himself by being on the spot during recent crises in the Bluegrass State: a mass shooting in Louisville in April and record flooding in the eastern half of the state in the summer of 2022.
Multiple Democrats nationwide have pointed to Mr. Beshear’s winning campaign as a blueprint for 2024, when the parties will contest the White House, one-third of the Senate, the entire House of Representatives, 11 governorships, and more than 6,500 state legislative seats.
2. The Mississippi GOP Has (Some) Momentum
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves of Mississippi dampened the Democrat victories around the country in part by pitting the race as a battle to guard conservative Mississippi values against the threat of far-left liberalism.Mr. Reeves defeated Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, a cousin of Elvis Presley, to extend the GOP’s 20-year occupancy of the executive mansion.
The governor charged that his opponent is a puppet of coastal liberals who had poured millions of dollars into the campaign. “Mississippi stood strong,” Mr. Reeves said in his victory speech. “Mississippi is not for sale.”
Mr. Reeves also touted a record of achievements that he attributed to conservative governance. Among them were a historically low unemployment rate, the largest income tax cut in the state’s history, and a dramatic improvement in educational scores, which some have dubbed the Mississippi Miracle.
Despite Mr. Reeves’s achievements, problems remain for this deep-red state, which consistently ranks near the bottom in poverty and health indicators. Some 34 rural hospitals, beset by financial difficulties, are on the brink of closure.
Mr. Presley had promised to expand Medicaid coverage, which gained traction with many voters in the state of 2.95 million with a poverty rate above 18 percent. Mr. Reeves has consistently said the expansion was unnecessary but hasn’t put forward a plan to strengthen the state’s health care system.
Mr. Reeves’s margin of victory, 3 percentage points, was the worst performance by a Republican Mississippi gubernatorial candidate since 1999. Republican victories had averaged 24 percentage points in the three elections before Mr. Reeve’s first election in 2019, which he won by 5 percent.
That trend may be a concern heading into the 2024 election cycle and the next governor’s race in 2027.
3. Post-Roe Ohio
Ohio voters passed a citizen-led amendment to enshrine rights to abortion and other “reproductive decisions” in their state constitution, effectively nullifying a 2019 law banning the procedure after a fetal heartbeat is detected.Despite the intense, months-long political campaigns that surrounded Issue 1, the amendment passed with a clear majority of 56.6 percent.
In a reliably red state such as Ohio, the inescapable conclusion is that a large number of Republican voters don’t favor a total ban on abortion.
“Ohioans rejected disinformation and fear and voted instead to ensure that every Ohioan has access to the reproductive healthcare they need here in our state.”
The Buckeye State was the seventh to vote in favor of abortion access since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year. And although it was the only state to consider the issue statewide on the ballot this year, abortion advocates in several other states are already pushing for similar initiatives in 2024.
Among those states are Arizona, Florida, Missouri, and South Dakota, and many anticipate that the results of future races will mirror those in Ohio.
4. Democrats Find Abortion a Winning Issue
Democrats retained control of the Virginia Senate and won the House on Nov. 7, based largely on the prominence of a pro-abortion stance on all Democratic candidates’ platforms.The bottom line here is that Democrats found a winning issue and ran well with it, according to Richmond-based veteran political analyst Bob Holsworth.
“Republicans are damaged because what happened was that this issue has become, for many people, a personal freedom issue,” he told The Epoch Times, adding that personal freedom has historically been part of Republicans’ platform advocating limited government.
“So long as you have Republicans proposing ... to ban abortion without exceptions, so long as you have Republicans talking about preventing people from traveling from one state or another to obtain an abortion, they’re going to have a problem on this issue,” Mr. Holsworth said.
5. Democrats Expand High Court Majority
Pennsylvania voters chose Democrat Dan McCaffery over Republican Carolyn Carluccio, shifting the balance on the commonwealth’s high court to 5–2. Once again, access to abortion was the defining issue in the race.Ms. Carluccio was endorsed by the Pennsylvania Pro-Life Federation and the Pro-Life Coalition of Pennsylvania. Ms. Carluccio noted that Pennsylvania law makes abortion legal through 24 weeks and sought, unsuccessfully, to distance herself from the debate.
Mr. McCaffery positioned himself as pro-abortion. Democrats messaged around the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and poured more than $22 million into the race, according to The Associated Press.
In Pennsylvania, Supreme Court justices serve 10-year terms and must retire at 75. Mr. McCaffrey is 59.
6. School Boards Becoming Partisan
School board elections have traditionally been nonpartisan, but that’s changing because of polarization over issues such as parental rights in education.In Loudoun County, Virginia, ground zero for the parental rights fight, all nine school board seats were up for grabs this year. Eight candidates ran on the issue and obtained Republican endorsements. Only two were successful—one by just 185 votes, or 1 percent of the total—against Democrat-backed candidates who consider the other side’s push for parental rights to be “right-wing rhetoric.”
In Spotsylvania County, Virginia, a rural area 60 miles south of the nation’s capital, control of the school board flipped for the second time in three years. Candidates who ran on a parental rights platform for the four open seats were defeated, surrendering the majority.
Bills were proposed in six states this year that would allow school board candidates to declare a party affiliation. Most states currently require nonpartisan school board elections.
7. Democrats Build in New Jersey
New Jersey Democrats added to their majorities in both houses of the state’s Legislature this week, a marked turnaround after losing six General Assembly seats and one Senate seat in 2021.Democrats re-flipped the seat held by Republican state Sen. Ed Durr, who had defeated Democratic Senate President Steve Sweeney in 2021 in a shocking upset. John Burzichelli retook the seat for Democrats by 53–47 percent.
8. Progress for GOP Locally
Local elections were a brighter spot for Republicans, as they won important mayoral and city council races.On Long Island, New York, Republican Ed Romaine was elected Suffolk County executive in a landslide victory over Democrat prosecutor David Calone. Mr. Romaine had been town supervisor of Brookhaven, New York, since 2012.
With that result, the GOP now holds all countywide offices in both Suffolk and Nassau counties and their four congressional seats.
Republicans also flipped the Bronx seat on the New York City Council as challenger Kristy Marmorato bested incumbent Democrat Councilwoman Marjorie Velázquez.
Ms. Marmorato, an X-ray technician, is the first Republican to hold the seat in 20 years.
In Manchester, New Hampshire, Republican Jay Ruais was elected mayor, becoming the city’s first Republican mayor since 2017. Mr. Ruais, a first-time candidate, defeated Democratic Alderman Kevin Cavanaugh.
The mayor-elect issued a unity statement, seeking bipartisan cooperation in governing the city.
9. President Biden Has No Coattails
Democrat Gov. Beshear won in Kentucky by distancing himself from President Biden. Mr. Reeves, a Republican, won in Mississippi by tying his opponent to the Biden agenda.
At a time when President Biden’s approval ratings are low, the economy is sluggish, and he faces an impeachment inquiry and questions about cognitive fitness, candidates in both parties are beginning to run against him rather than their opponents.
True, the prominence of the abortion issue is a win of sorts for President Biden, but as of Nov. 7, abortion access is no longer a blue versus red issue. Republicans must decide how to respond to an increasingly large faction of Republican voters who dislike strict abortion bans. That’s not, by itself, a win for President Biden.
10. Tough Decisions Before 2024
This week’s elections show that Democratic issues, not the party’s standard bearer, are driving results. Despite the wins, the president lags behind President Trump in five out of the six swing states, according to a New York Times poll conducted several days before election night.Mr. Holsworth said the poll reflected the low approval rating of President Biden, whom he called an “anchor around the Democratic Party.”
“Independents have abandoned Biden right now. They think that he is too old to be president. There are a lot of Democrats who think he’s too old to be president,” he said. “The Democratic Party does have a Biden problem, though they don’t necessarily admit it.”
Swing state Democrats may well distance themselves from their president if he remains on the ballot in 2024. The party has until its national convention in August 2024 to make that decision.
Early primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina may provide a clue about what Democrats intend to do.
President Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, isn’t a sure bet either.
“Both sides look like they’re ready to take gambles with weak candidates in an election that the public will hate,” Mr. Holsworth said.
Many voters, especially independents, appear to be looking for alternatives to the major players in 2024.
