Victory in Iowa doesn’t guarantee a nomination at the party convention, but it can turn unknowns into stars.
Simultaneously, it can signal the end of once-promising campaigns.
Iowa, a Midwestern state of about 3 million people and most famous for its agriculture, becomes the center of the U.S. political universe every four years because of its unique position as the first state to cast a vote on presidential hopefuls.
The caucus bedevils prognosticators because it tends to break late.
Iowans want to see the candidates, speak with them, and pass judgment in person. They won’t make up their minds easily, either. Often, caucusgoers don’t reach their decision until just days before the event.
Because of this, an experienced politician who polled well in the preceding months might finish behind a more personable candidate who shook more hands.
Since 1972, when the caucuses were given their first-in-the-nation status, two Democratic presidents have had their star turns in the barns, diners, and gymnasiums of the Hawkeye State. In recent years, the caucuses have produced upsets for both political parties.
In a chaotic 2020 for the Democrats, then-candidate Joe Biden didn’t even crack the top three. He finished well behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
In 2016, candidate Donald Trump lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), although the result presaged his eventual rise to prominence in the Republican Party at the expense of experienced lawmakers.
Will 2024 yield another unexpected result?
Despite his absence from the primary debates thus far and numerous legal troubles, polls show that former President Trump has a firm lead in Iowa and around the nation.
President Trump has traveled to Iowa 14 times since March 2023, many times for his signature rally-style events. His primary rivals are spending more time in the state and traveling widely to make their case to Iowans often in smaller, more conversational, settings.
Why Iowa Is Prone to Surprises
Academics and analysts who’ve watched Iowa’s caucuses for years say that the atypical caucus setup often yields surprises for two reasons.First, enthusiasm for candidates and the ability of their campaigns to galvanize people to vote play a leading role. Iowans who participate in their local caucus must stand up, argue, and defend their choice for presidential nominee on the evening of caucus night. In states that conduct primaries, voters have an entire day to cast a secret ballot or an extended opportunity to submit an absentee or mail-in ballot.
Second, Iowans don’t make their choices lightly and take deep pride in the special role that they play in the process of nominating the head of the executive branch. They’re used to seeing candidates in person, asking them direct questions at town halls, and thoroughly vetting their policy positions. Some voters don’t make up their minds until the caucus night or the weekend before the event.
Iowa caucuses aren’t a random sampling of the population—they’re a test of a population of highly informed and motivated voters, according to Karen Kedrowski, professor of political science at Iowa State University.
1. Jimmy Carter
The original Iowa shocker came in 1976, when candidate Jimmy Carter transformed the caucus from a “sleepy” set of political meetings into a must-watch event, according to Mr. Hull, who has worked in Iowa politics, written a book on the caucuses, and taught at Georgetown University, George Washington University, and The Institute of World Politics.
Mr. Carter, previously obscure on the national scene, spent plenty of time in Iowa meeting with people and making his case personally with Democratic Party caucusgoers. He beat out as many as 16 other candidates with 28 percent of the Democratic vote. But the ultimate winner of that caucus was the “uncommitted” vote with 36 percent.
The real masterstroke in an era before the internet, Mr. Hull said, was Mr. Carter’s decision to catch a flight to New York on the same night as the caucus so that he could appear on the national news and declare victory in Iowa.
“The night of the ‘76 Iowa caucuses, he went from an unknown peanut farmer and Georgia governor to a contender for the presidency,” Mr. Hull told The Epoch Times. “He ultimately won the nomination and the presidency on the strength of his caucus win.”
The surprise event made Iowa “iconic.” Moreover, it established the trend of Iowans choosing charming candidates who can build their own support rather than tearing down others.
2. Barack Obama
Ms. Kedrowski said Iowans shocked the nation again when they picked a black candidate in 2008.Like President Carter before him, Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama’s meteoric rise to the White House started with him as a relative unknown trying to separate himself from a crowded field in Iowa.
The senator from Illinois won, narrowly beating Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and then-Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, with 38 percent of Iowa Democratic caucusgoers’ support.
Mr. Obama’s selection showed the rest of the country that he was a viable national candidate in an election without an incumbent running, Ms. Kedrowski said.
“What that did was convince African American voters that white voters would support a black Senator for president,” she told The Epoch Times.
The success spawned a bandwagon effect of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama, which also spurred his financial efforts.
3. Rick Santorum
Tim Hagle, associate professor in the political science department at the University of Iowa, said the most recent unexpected winner was former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in 2012.Mr. Santorum’s narrow win in the Republican field wasn’t totally unforeseen because he worked hard and campaigned all over the state, following a well-worn path to success, he said.
What made Mr. Santorum’s win so stunning was his sudden surge from behind right before the caucuses at the end of a long process in which some candidates had campaigned for almost a year, Mr. Hagle said.
This, he said, is emblematic of how many Iowans don’t make up their mind about whom to support until the very end.
Mr. Santorum, who served in both the House and Senate representing Pennsylvania for more than a decade, won the GOP’s Iowa caucus on the strength of just a handful of votes. In terms of percentage, he tied at 25 percent with now-Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah).
Mr. Hagle, who has followed the caucuses professionally since the 1980s and published two books on the caucus process, said that Mr. Santorum was a very conservative candidate who reaffirmed that Iowa’s Republican voters support candidates who espouse traditional values, as well as evangelical Christians.
Mr. Santorum’s narrow victory came on the heels of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s more-convincing victory in 2008. Mr. Huckabee is an evangelical Christian and a former Southern Baptist pastor.
The power of the evangelical vote, Ms. Kedrowski said, was first revealed in 1988, when Pat Robertson, a televangelist and entrepreneur from Virginia, won 25 percent of the vote to finish second in Iowa behind longtime Kansas Sen. Bob Dole.
Mr. Robertson, who earned his fame and fortune as the host of “The 700 Club” and founder of the Christian Broadcasting Network, earned more votes in Iowa than the eventual general election winner, incumbent Vice President George H.W. Bush.
Ms. Kedrowski credited Mr. Robertson, who concluded his campaign during the 1988 primaries, for tapping the power of national political activism among evangelical Christians. This voting bloc flexed its muscles in the following years and has become an essential part of the Republican Party’s base.
Picking Winners and Losers
Since 1972, Iowa’s caucuses have selected plenty of presidents and nominees. However, a fair share won the caucus only to come up short ahead of the summer conventions.During years without an incumbent running, the Democratic caucuses chose eventual Presidents Carter and Obama.
The caucuses also elevated former Vice President Walter Mondale (1984), former Vice President Al Gore (2000), Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (2004), and Ms. Clinton (2016) to the Democratic Party’s nomination, but not the presidency.
On the Republican side, former CIA Director George H.W. Bush won the caucus but lost the nomination to President Ronald Reagan in 1980. President Bush ran unopposed in the caucus in 1992, and his son, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, won the caucus and the White House in 2000.
Iowa’s Republican caucuses also elected Mr. Dole in both 1988 and 1996, and Mr. Dole won the party’s nomination in 1996.
Since 2000, however, a Republican victory in Iowa hasn’t been worth much. Mr. Huckabee, Mr. Santorum, and Mr. Cruz all won the contest but failed to secure the nomination.
Notably, 2020 was a disaster for the Democratic Party, as the caucus couldn’t yield a clear winner. Former Vice President Biden likely finished in fourth place in that contest with less than one-fifth of the vote.
The disputed 2020 Democratic Caucus led to a totally reformed process that will feature mailed-in selections rather than in-person caucusing. The Iowa Democratic Party won’t release the results of the process until March 5.
As usual, the Republican Party of Iowa will hold an in-person caucus on the evening of Jan. 15.
The Hawkeye State’s job is to separate the pretenders from the contenders, the Iowa experts say.
Winning in Iowa doesn’t mean victory is assured, but a poor performance—coming in fourth or worse—is often a clear sign that a candidacy isn’t viable.
The long campaigning process also helps to narrow the field, Mr. Hagle said. If a candidate isn’t performing in Iowa, they are likely to end their campaign entirely well before the caucus night.
Because they come first in the presidential election process, Mr. Hull said, the Iowa caucuses will always have an outsized influence on the minds and actions of voters in the other early presidential primary states of New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
Despite this, Iowa is typically a poor predictor of eventual victory because so many candidates are involved in the process.
“It’s worth watching what happens in Iowa, and it matters what happens in Iowa,” Mr. Hull said. “The Iowa caucuses are a healthy way to weed out candidates.”
