The House Races to Pay Attention to This Year

The battle for control for the House of Representatives will likely come down to 24 congressional races.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock

The battle for control for the House of Representatives will likely come down to 24 congressional races.

The main political event of the year will be Republicans’ efforts to take back the White House from an unpopular incumbent President Joe Biden.

By all indications, it’ll be a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, far and away the Republican frontrunner with less than a week until the primaries begin.

But Republicans and Democrats are also vying for control of the federal Legislature, which has been divided since the start of the 118th Congress. Democrats hold a paper-thin one-vote majority in the Senate and Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives.

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This year, Senate Democrats will be fighting tooth and nail on an unfavorable map to retain control of the upper chamber. As many as nine seats are flippable in 2024, and Republicans have the odds in their favor.

Whoever controls the House in 2025 will likely do so only by thin margins.

Current polling suggests that Democrats’ best hope of having a voice in the federal government next year is to take back the House from Republicans, who are set to be on the defensive this year after a year of intra-party battles between the centrist wing of the House GOP and its right-flank.

Redistricting could be the ultimate determinant factor in who will control the lower congressional chamber.

Many gerrymandering issues have already gone to the courts and the U.S. Supreme Court in 2023 ruled that courts have jurisdiction to be involved in redistricting disputes. Proposed congressional maps from New York to Alabama to North Carolina have been the subject of controversy.

Here are 24 House races to watch as the election season gets well and truly underway.

1. Michigan’s 7th Congressional District

First up is Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s seat in Michigan’s 7th congressional district as she sets her sights on replacing retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) in the upper chamber.

Encompassing Lansing, Michigan, and a broad swath of southern central Michigan, Ms. Slotkin’s seat is rated a toss-up in Democrats’ favor by the Cook Political Report.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) campaigns with Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wy.) at an event in East Lansing, Mich., on Nov. 1, 2022. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Ms. Slotkin, a Democrat, flipped the seat in 2022 after redistricting pushed her into the 7th district and likewise kicked incumbent Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) into Michigan’s 5th congressional district.

“We need a new generation of leaders that thinks differently, works harder, and never forgets that we are public servants,” Ms. Slotkin wrote in an X post announcing her decision to run for Senate.

In 2022, Ms. Slotkin won by a relatively large 5.4 percent margin.

While the district remains in Democrats’ favor in 2024, the loss of an incumbent in a relatively evenly divided district means this victory will likely be in the single digits for either party.

Announced contenders for the seat include Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, both former members of the Michigan state Senate who left office at the start of 2023.

2. Michigan’s 8th Congressional District

Just west of Ms. Slotkin’s district, Michigan’s 8th congressional district, encompassing the western suburbs of Detroit, is also up for grabs.

Democratic incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee isn’t seeking reelection, following his announcement of a cancer diagnosis. Mr. Kildee has a long history in the 8th district, where he’s served since 2013.

Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) speaks at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6, 2022. Graeme Jennings-Pool/Getty Images

“There are times in all our lives that make you reassess your own future and path,” Mr. Kildee said in a 2023 statement announcing his decision to step down.

“For me, being diagnosed with cancer earlier this year was one of those moments. Thankfully, earlier this year I had successful surgery and I’m cancer-free.”

Like most longtime incumbents, Mr. Kildee’s seat has been seen as an easy Democratic hold and no prominent members of the Republican Party have yet announced a bid for his seat.

On the Democrat side, Pamela Pugh, a member of the Michigan State Board of Education, has announced her candidacy.

3. Virginia’s 10th Congressional District

Also vulnerable for Democrats is the seat of outgoing Rep. Jennifer Wexton in Virginia’s 10th congressional district.

Ms. Wexton, who unseated the Republican incumbent in the blue wave of 2018, announced that she would retire due to a diagnosis of progressive supranuclear palsy, a Parkinson’s-like disease that leads to increasing challenges with movement and speech over time.

“I’m heartbroken to have to give up something I have loved after so many years of serving my community,” Ms. Wexton said in a statement.

Democratic U.S. House candidate and Virginia state Sen. Jennifer Wexton waves to constituents during the annual Haymarket Day parade in Haymarket, Va., on Oct. 20, 2018. Alex Wong/Getty Images

“But taking into consideration the prognosis for my health over the coming years, I have made the decision not to seek reelection once my term is complete and instead spend my valued time with Andrew, our boys, and my friends and loved ones.”

Her exit from Congress leaves her seat open to a Republican takeover.

Encompassing Loudon County and the western portion of northern Virginia, much of her district is deep into the suburbs of Washington, D.C.—a place where voters are less openly liberal than their counterparts to the east.

Until Ms. Wexton’s 2018 upset, the seat had been held by Republicans for decades. The last time a Democrat won the district was 1978.

Still, Ms. Wexton’s departure has inspired a large slate of candidates to announce a bid for the position.

There are 11 Democrats seeking the nomination, including Virginia state Sen. Jennifer Boysko. Three Republicans have also announced their intention to seek the seat.

Ms. Wexton’s departure means a test for the important Virginia district. With the district’s complicated political history, the race could go either way.

4. Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District

Incumbent Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado’s 3rd congressional district announced on Dec. 27, 2023, that she is changing districts to run for the 4th congressional seat in 2024.

Currently, that seat is held by Republican Rep. Ken Buck, an outspoken critic of President Trump who isn’t running for reelection. The 4th congressional district encompasses the eastern portion of the state and is substantially more solid in its Republican leanings.

U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) leaves after a press conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on June 8, 2022. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Ms. Boebert’s decision was likely inspired by her near-loss in the 3rd district in the 2022 midterm elections.

Democrat challenger Adam Frisch lost by a mere 546 votes—the closest House race of the 2022 election cycle. After the tight race, Mr. Frisch announced that he would challenge Ms. Boebert for the 3rd district seat again in 2024.

With Ms. Boebert’s move, the Republican nominee will likely face Mr. Frisch, who’s proven himself able to get a large swathe of votes in the red-leaning district.

The 3rd congressional district encompasses nearly a third of the entire state, largely including Colorado’s sparsely populated western portion.

Republicans are more favored to win the race for the seat.

5. Washington’s 3rd Congressional District

Encompassing the area along Washington’s southwestern border with Oregon, Washington’s 3rd district has long vacillated between Democrats and Republicans.

The seat was held by Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler from 2010 to 2022.

She was unsuccessful in a primary bid to keep the seat in the 2022 midterms, losing to pro-Trump challenger Joe Kent who based his challenge on Ms. Butler’s vote to impeach the former president over the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach.

(Left) Rep.-elect Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D-Wash.) speaks at an event in Washington on Nov. 18, 2022. (Center) Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler held Washington’s 3rd Congressional seat from 2010 to 2022. (Right) Republican congressional candidate Joe Kent speaks at a campaign event in Morton, Wash., on Oct. 5, 2022. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images, Public Domain, Nathan Howard/Getty Images

Mr. Kent was favored to win the Republican-leaning district. But in an upset, he lost to Democratic challenger Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, who is now defending the seat, again from a challenge by Mr. Kent.

Ms. Pérez’s 2022 victory was close, with the Democrat winning by a mere 0.8 percent margin—leaving the seat very vulnerable to a Republican counterattack in 2024.

Two other Republicans will join Mr. Kent in the primary challenge.

6. New York’s 3rd Congressional District

The seat of ousted Rep. George Santos, a Republican, will also be up for grabs by both parties in 2024.

On Dec. 1, 2023, Mr. Santos became the first Republican ever expelled from the lower chamber, and one of only a handful in history to be booted from Congress, due to ongoing concerns about a series of criminal and ethical violations.

The Long Island, New York, district he leaves behind is now set to see two House races this year: a special election to bring in a short-term replacement for Mr. Santos, and the formal race for a two-year term in November.

On the Democratic side, former Rep. Tom Suozzi—who left his seat in the 3rd district to mount an ultimately unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2022—will be seeking to take back the seat.

(Left) Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) debates in the race for governor at the studios of WNBC4-TV June 16, 2022, in New York City. (Right) Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip speaks during a press conference at American Legion Post 1066 on Dec. 15, 2023, in Massapequa, New York. Craig Ruttle-Pool/Getty Images, Adam Gray/Getty Images

Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping to retain the seat with Mazi Pilip, an Israeli American currently serving in the New York state Legislature.

A Democrat-aligned PAC, the House Majority PAC, has made a high-stakes $5.9 million bet on Mr. Suozzi, with a plan to bombard the district with television, digital, and mail ads in his favor.

Whoever wins the special election will face a second challenge in November to retain the seat. Likely, both races will be between Mr. Suozzi and Ms. Pilip.

7. Colorado’s 8th Congressional District

Newly created due to redistricting, Colorado’s 8th congressional district is currently held by freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who narrowly defeated Republican challenger Barbara Kirkmeyer in 2022 by a 0.69 percent margin.

The margin indicates that the district is far from safe territory for Democrats, who will need to fight off a strong Republican challenge to hold the seat.

Three Republicans have announced bids for the seat, including Gabe Evans, a member of the Colorado House of Representatives.

Colorado’s 8th congressional district includes much of the northeastern suburbs of Denver.

8. New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District

Democrats will also be defending their seat in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district.

Enveloping nearly half the state, the district encompasses the suburbs of Albuquerque and the border region between the United States and Mexico.

(Left) Rep.-elect Gabriel Vasquez (D-N.M.) speaks at an event in Washington on Nov. 18, 2022. (Right) Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) speaks at a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington on Nov. 2, 2021. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images, Pete Marovich/Getty Images

The seat has continually switched between Republican and Democratic control over the past decade.

Currently, it’s held by freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat who seized the seat from the Republican incumbent by a narrow margin in 2022.

Mr. Vasquez won by a paper-thin 0.7 percent margin, unseating one-term Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell.

Prior to Ms. Herrell’s short tenure in Congress, the seat was held by a Democrat for a single term. Before that, the seat had been held by a Republican for about a decade.

This time around, Ms. Herell is seeking to reclaim the nomination and the seat.

Both candidates have been tested in Congress already, so the race for the seat is a pure toss-up in the politically ambivalent district.

9. Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Across state lines, Republicans will be seeking to defend their seat in Arizona’s 1st congressional district.

Encompassing the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix, the seat is currently held by Rep. David Schweikert, a Republican.

Mr. Schweikert won reelection to the district in 2022. But his margin of victory, at 0.88 percent, was thin.

Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) (C) speaks during a news conference as other lawmakers look on at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on March 29, 2011. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Prior to Mr. Schweikert’s election, the district had long been held by Democrats, putting him and Republicans on the defensive.

Like other Republicans in Biden-voting districts, his electoral ambitions may come down to his voters’ feelings on how Republicans have stewarded the House during the 118th Congress.

There are currently nine declared challengers in the Democratic primary challenge for the seat, including Amish Shah, a member of the Arizona House of Representatives.

10. California’s 13th Congressional District

Another Republican in a Biden-voting district on the defensive this year is Rep. John Duarte.

Mr. Duarte’s 13th congressional district, redrawn after 2020, lies on the southern end of California’s central valley.

Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) is among seven California GOP House incumbents that Democrats believe they can knock out in 2024. J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

The district narrowly elected Mr. Duarte, a freshman lawmaker, by 0.4 percent in 2022.

With such a thin margin, and with voters who sent President Biden to the Oval Office, Mr. Duarte’s seat is a key Democratic target in 2024.

A few Democrats have announced bids to replace Mr. Duarte, but none have substantial roles in state or federal politics.

11. New York’s 17th Congressional District

Freshman Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican, is also defending the seat he flipped in 2022.

Lying north of New York City along the border with Connecticut, Mr. Lawler’s district is historically Democratic and voted for President Biden in 2020.

Mr. Lawler’s 2022 victory was a major upset, unseating the redistricted chair of Democrats’ congressional campaign arm, incumbent Rep. Patrick Maloney. Mr. Lawler won by a 0.6 percent margin.

(Left) Rep.-elect Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) speaks with reporters in the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 14, 2022. (Right) Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) during a mark up hearing at the U.S. Capitol on June 2, 2022. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Mr. Lawler has made a point of being one of the most moderate members of the House GOP caucus, but his seat will still be a prime target for Democrats in 2024.

Mondaire Jones, a former congressman who lost his seat due to redistricting, will likely be the Democratic nominee to challenge Mr. Lawler in November.

As in other races where two Congress-tested candidates are facing off, the race could go either way.

12. New York’s 22nd Congressional District

Encompassing Syracuse and parts of Utica in upstate New York, the 22nd congressional district seat is currently occupied by freshman Rep. Brandon Williams, a Republican.

And, as with many of his New York counterparts, Mr. Williams’ margin of victory in 2022 was thin—he defeated his Democratic challenger by a single point.

This makes the seat a potential flip for Democrats in the next election cycle.

Rep. Brandon Williams R-N.Y.) speaks during a news conference outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington on March 7, 2023. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

13. Arizona’s 6th Congressional District

Back out West, Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, a freshman, flipped a seat previously held by a Democrat and he’s looking to keep it. It’s a narrowly red district that includes the city of Tucson.

Mr. Ciscomani, a rising GOP star, declined to run for the critical Senate race in the Grand Canyon State.

He was loyal to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and delivered a Spanish response to the 2023 State of the Union address.

Kirsten Engel, the Democrat opponent that Mr. Ciscomani beat by just 1.5 percentage points, or 5,232 votes, is again running for the Democrat nod.

One of, if not the biggest issue, surrounding the election is the southern border crisis. Mr. Ciscomani wants a wall and other measures to secure the border, according to his campaign website, while Ms. Engel has objected to building a wall and has even said that Arizona doesn’t have a border crisis.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) (C) talks to reporters with fellow lawmakers on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 28, 2023. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

14. California’s 22nd Congressional District

In this Democrat district, Rep. David Valadao is hoping to keep it in GOP hands.

Mr. Valadao, who served in Congress between 2013 and 2019 before rejoining in 2021, won reelection in 2022 by 3.2 percentage points, or 3,276 votes over Democrat Rudy Salas. Mr. Salas is a candidate in this year’s race.

Mr. Valadao was one of two Republicans who won reelection in 2022 after voting in favor of President Trump’s second impeachment, which was tied to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) speaks to reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Oct. 12, 2023. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

15. California’s 27th Congressional District

Staying in the Golden State, this congressional district has been represented by Mike Garcia, a Republican, since May 19, 2020. Although this district leans Democrat, Mr. Garcia won reelection in 2022 by 6.4 percentage points or 12,754 votes.

President Biden won the district in 2020, which includes some of Los Angeles.

The other candidates in the race include Democrats Steve Hill and George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff and aerospace entrepreneur. Given that California has a nonpartisan primary in which the top two finishers move onto the general election, splitting the Democrat vote will likely benefit Mr. Garcia.

16. California’s 41st Congressional District

Rep. Ken Calvert, a Republican who has been in Congress since 1993 and has survived redistricting four times, represents this GOP-leaning district.

Mr. Calvert has voted against his party numerous times, including favoring a law that codified federal protections for same-sex marriages and denouncing members of the hardline conservative Freedom Caucus for sinking a defense spending bill in September 2023.

“What’s happening is the military is being held hostage to these procedural votes, so that can’t happen,” Mr. Calvert said at the time. “Our enemies are looking at us every day. And our friends, too. Where are we when it comes to national security?”

In 2022, Mr. Calvert won reelection by 4.6 percentage points, or 11,100 votes, in a district that includes Chino Hills and Yorba Linda, where the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum is located.

Mr. Calvert’s opponents include Democrats Anna Nevenic, a health care executive, and Will Rollins, a former assistant U.S. attorney.

Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) (C) speaks as fellow lawmakers look on during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington on Dec. 11, 2015. Alex Wong/Getty Images

17. Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Julia Letlow’s district, which is currently solidly red, is being redistricted, making the race this year a toss-up. However, it’s unclear exactly what the district will look like until the new Louisiana congressional maps are in place—the deadline is Jan. 30.

Ms. Letlow has been in Congress since April 2021 following her victory in a special election to assume her husband’s seat after he died from COVID-19 prior to taking office in January 2021.

This vast district covers the northeastern, central, and southeastern parts of the Bayou State.

So far, no Democrats have thrown their hat in the ring.

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) speaks during a town hall event in Washington on March 1, 2022. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

18. New Jersey 7th Congressional District

Republican Tom Kean Jr., son of former New Jersey Gov. and 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean, has represented this narrowly GOP district since January 2023 after flipping it. The flip was key to the GOP taking back the House in 2023.

This district includes six counties including Sussex County.

Mr. Kean defeated incumbent Democrat Rep. Tom Malinowski by 3 percentage points, or 9,407 votes.

The Democrats looking to unseat Mr. Kean include nonprofit executive director Susan Altman, professor Jason Blazakis, and Summit, New Jersey, Council President Gregory Vartan.

(Left) Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski campaigns in Rahway, N.J.,

19. New York’s 19th Congressional District

Rep. Marc Molinaro, a Republican, has represented this redistricted and even district since January 2023. It includes the Catskills and Hudson Valley.

Mr. Molinaro won over Democrat Josh Riley by just 1.6 percentage points, or 4,495 votes.

Mr. Riley is running again in 2024, in addition to Democrats Dan Buttermann and John Cerullo.

Republican congressional candidate Marc Molinaro attends a campaign rally in Thornwood, N.Y., on Oct. 31, 2022. Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/AP Photo

20. New York’s 4th Congressional District

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, a Republican, flipped this Long Island district and helped the GOP take back the House in 2022.

He defeated Democrat Laura Gillen by 3.6 percentage points, or 9,751 votes.

Ms. Gillen is running again in this year’s race, along with four other Democrats.

Mr. D’Esposito, a former NYPD officer, was known to be loyal to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

Additionally, he was a major figure behind the successful push to expel Rep. George Santos from Congress.

Nonetheless, Mr. D’Esposito represents a district that President Biden won by double digits in 2020.

Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.) holds up copies of legislation he plans to introduce while at a news conference outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington on March 7, 2023. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

21. Oregon’s 5th Congressional District

Over on the other coast, this Democrat-leaning district in northwestern Oregon is held by Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who flipped the seat and became the first Republican woman from Oregon in Congress.

She defeated progressive Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 by just over 2 percentage points, or 7,299 votes.

Ms. McLeod-Skinner, along with three other Democrats, are running for the seat this year.

Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer (R-Ore.) heads to a meeting at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 19, 2023. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

22. North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District

This slightly Democrat district, represented since January 2023 by Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat, could flip to the GOP due to redistricting.

Mr. Davis defeated Republican business executive Sandy Smith by 4.8 percentage points, or 12,216, in 2022.

Ms Smith, along with another Republican, retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, are both looking to unseat Mr. Davis in 2024.

The district is located in northeast North Carolina and borders Virginia.

(Left) Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is defending his seat that has been redistricted in 2024. (Right) Congressional candidate Sandy Smith during a rally in Wilmington, N.C., on Sept. 23, 2022. Public Domain, Allison Joyce/Getty Images

23. Ohio’s 13th Congressional District

This district, which leans Republican, has been represented by Rep. Emilia Sykes since January 2023. She succeeded Tim Ryan, the Democrat who represented the district for 20 years until his unsuccessful run for Senate.

Ms. Sykes, who previously served as minority leader in the Ohio House of Representatives, defeated Madison Gilbert by 5.4 percentage points, or 15,223 votes.

Republicans looking to take on Ms. Sykes include Marine Corps veteran Chris Banweg, former Ohio state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, and Richard Morckel.

President Biden won the district, which includes Akron, by 2.8 percentage points in 2020.

Rep.-elect Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio) walks to a meeting at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 14, 2022. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

24. Maine’s 2nd Congressional District

This GOP-leaning district has been held by Democrat Rep. Jared Golden since 2019.

The former U.S. Marine beat incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin, a Republican, in 2018 after the ranked-choice voting system elevated his vote count.

Mr. Golden came up against Mr Poliquin again in 2022 and won reelection by 1.2 percentage points, or 18,994 votes.

President Trump won the district by 10 percentage points in 2016 and 7 percentage points in 2020.

Republicans looking to unseat Mr. Golden include Maine state Rep. Michael Soboleski and Maine state Rep. Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver.

Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) speaks in Bath, Maine, on April 27, 2019. David Sharp/AP Photo

Mr. Golden has shown he’s willing to break ranks with his party by objecting to the Maine secretary of state’s decision to drop President Trump’s name from the 2024 presidential primary ballot. He also was one of 31 Democrats to vote against expelling Mr. Santos from Congress in November 2023, though he joined the majority of Democrats who voted to do so in December 2023.

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.