In the three-county area comprising Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, election officials, local party leaders, and voters agree on one thing: winning the district will be purely a matter of turnout.
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its votes in the Electoral College. This presents a rare opportunity for partisans to seize an extra vote in the presidential contest. A single electoral vote can be critical if the race is close.
In the district, Democrats are working to peel off a vote for their candidate while Republicans are trying to keep the most populous part of the conservative Cornhusker State in the fold for the GOP.
Currently, polls show a clear and consistent lead for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump in the blue-trending district.
Still, voter registration data and local history suggest there is still a relatively narrow margin between turning the jurisdiction—centered on Omaha—blue or keeping it red.
Those who spoke with The Epoch Times said the final days of the election season in the Omaha metro area will be dedicated to get-out-the-vote efforts. Both sides believe rallying their base can lead to victory in both the 2nd Congressional District and possibly the entire Electoral College.
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“Everybody needs to get out to vote,” Amy O'Connor, a Democratic voter from Douglas County, Nebraska, told The Epoch Times. “We need to work ’til the very end.”
In 1992, the Cornhusker State converted from a winner-take-all system to one that apportions two of its five electoral votes to the state’s popular vote winner. The remaining votes go to the popular vote winner in each of its three congressional districts. The system, with its multiple popular vote contests, can lead to a split electoral vote.
Twice, in 2008 and 2020, the district voted for the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, though it didn’t influence the ultimate outcome in either case. This year, however, there are some conceivable Electoral College scenarios where the outcome of the entire race could hinge on the district’s vote.
The district includes the entirety of Douglas County, the most populous area in the state, half of Sarpy County, Nebraska’s third-most populous county, and all of rural Saunders County.
About 30 percent of Nebraskans—586,330 people—live within the borders of Douglas County, according to data published by the Omaha-based regional interest coalition, the Metropolitan Area Planning Agency.
Demographic research conducted by the University of Nebraska at Omaha in 2022 determined that the county’s population is predominantly white, well-educated, and earning more than the national median household income.
Politically, Douglas County is closely divided between the two major parties.
Douglas County Election Commissioner Brian Kruse told The Epoch Times there were about 362,000 registered voters in the county at the end of September. About 133,000 are registered as Democrats, about 128,000 as Republicans, and about 92,000 as nonpartisan. Fewer than 10,000 are members of other political parties.
This year, Kruse expects around 75 percent of registered voters to cast a ballot in the district.
CJ King, chair of the Douglas County Democratic Party, said he believes questions about abortion on Nebraska’s ballot could boost overall turnout for the Democrats in the district in an environment where polling already shows a consistent Harris lead.
Democrats have taken to using the symbol of a blue dot juxtaposed against a white background, called the “one blue dot” campaign, to rally behind Democrats. The symbol represents the potential for the district to be a single blue dot amid the surrounding red on the electoral map.
Still, Democrats don’t consider a win in the district guaranteed: this cycle, around $10 million has been spent on presidential campaign advertising in the district; Democrats booked the airwaves for the final eight weeks of the election.
Despite the district’s two famous departures to Democrats, the 2nd Congressional District has voted with Nebraska’s Republican majority in six out of the eight presidential elections held since 1992.
Michael Tiedeman, chairman of the Sarpy County Republican Party, told The Epoch Times that Douglas County’s southern neighbor is predominantly Republican.
About 126,000 registered voters reside in the county, according to Tiedeman. About 56,000 are registered as Republicans, about 34,000 as Democrats, and another 34,000 as independents. The county is split between Nebraska’s 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts, with the 1st District being more populated.
Republican voters are motivated by their concern about the economy and the high rate of inflation impacting the cost of living in the Omaha metro area, Tiedeman said. Conservatives are also bothered by what he called an “open border,” hastening the arrival of illegal immigrants into Nebraska.
For both parties, however, only Election Day will tell if the district’s 2020 vote for Biden was a one-off or if it represents larger trends.
—Austin Alonzo, Joseph Lord
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