Next year’s competition for control of the U.S. Senate will be a critical battle as Democrats defend more seats than Republicans.
The Democrats currently control the upper chamber by the slimmest of margins, 51–49.
Whoever wins the Senate will control the legislation before the floor and accept or reject judicial and executive nominees, who help shape policy.
Democrat strategist Mark Mellman predicted that the Democrats could keep the Senate if the GOP puts up the same candidates who lost in crucial races in 2022. But, he told The Epoch Times, things are up in the air until the primaries are over.
1. Arizona
In this swing state, it could ultimately be a three-way race among incumbent independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat Rep. Reubén Gallego, and former journalist and failed 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
Other Republicans in the primary include Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, business consultant George Nicholson, and mechanical engineer Brian Wright.
President Joe Biden won The Grand Canyon state by just 0.3 percentage points in the 2020 election.
“I have joined the growing numbers of Arizonans who reject party politics by declaring my independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent,” Ms. Sinema stated in a post on X, then known as Twitter.
2. Ohio
Although Republicans have won Ohio in three of the past five presidential elections, incumbent Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018 at the same time the GOP expanded its majority in the Senate.Mr. Brown, who is known to be a blue-collar Democrat, is running for reelection, setting up a potentially tight race. He has been in the Senate since 2007.
Republicans who have declared a run include Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and former car dealership owner and 2022 Senate candidate Bernie Moreno.
Mr. Moreno has been endorsed by Sens. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Mr. Dolan has been endorsed by Cleveland Browns owners Jimmy Haslam and his wife, Dee.
On Truth Social on Dec. 19, 2023, President Trump endorsed Mr. Moreno, saying “a successful political outsider like Bernie” is needed to beat Mr. Brown.
President Trump won the Buckeye State by about 8 percentage points in 2020, roughly the same as his 2016 win over Hillary Clinton.
3. Pennsylvania
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey is running for reelection but could face a tough race against David McCormick, who is the only Republican who has declared.Mr. McCormick has garnered endorsements from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mt.), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the fundraising arm of the Senate GOP.
Mr. McCormick narrowly lost the 2022 GOP Senate primary in Pennsylvania to Dr. Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor who went on to lose the general election to Sen. John Fetterman, a progressive Democrat.
President Biden won the Keystone State by 1.17 percentage points in 2020.
4. Montana
This red state could be a Republican pickup as the expected nominee, retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, could unseat incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester.
5. Nevada
Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for re-election in a state President Biden won in 2020 by just 2.39 percentage points.Republicans who have jumped into the primary so far are Army veteran Sam Brown, who suffered burns to his face from a roadside bomb during his service in Afghanistan in 2008, and former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant, who unsuccessfully ran for secretary of state in 2022 and Congress in 2020.
Mr. Brown has received endorsements from Sen. John Thune from South Dakota and from Americans for Prosperity, the largest conservative grassroots organization in the United States.
President Biden narrowly won the Silver State by about 2.4 percentage points in 2020, and President Trump lost it by almost that much in the 2016 race.
Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Tony Grady is one of the Republicans looking to challenge Ms. Rosen.
6. West Virginia
With Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin not running for reelection, it’s likely that the Mountain State will flip to the GOP.Gov. Jim Justice is the early favorite, with big endorsements coming in from President Trump and Mr. McConnell.
Mr. Justice does, however, face a handful of other candidates in the primary, most notably Rep. Alex Mooney.
The only Democrat in the race at the moment is U.S. Marine Corps veteran and political organizer Zachary Shrewsbury.
President Trump overwhelmingly won the state in 2020, with almost 69 percent of the vote.
There have been no polls conducted since Mr. Manchin announced in November 2023 that he will not seek a third term, but he has floated the idea of an independent run for president.
7. Michigan
Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring at the end of this term.The race is still considered a likely tossup as the GOP field includes former Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer, as well as former Detroit Police Chief James Craig.
President Biden won the Wolverine State by 2.78 percentage points in 2020.
8. Wisconsin
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin is running for reelection after winning her second term in 2018 by almost 11 percentage points.Republicans who have entered the race are county supervisor Stacey Klein; Rejani Raveendran, a 40-year-old college student who is the president of her university Republicans chapter; and retired Army Reserve Sgt. Maj. Patrick Schaefer-Wicke.
Notable Republicans—including former Gov. Scott Walker, Reps. Mike Gallagher, Tom Tiffany, and Bryan Steil—have declined to throw their hats into the ring.
President Biden narrowly won the Badger State in 2020, by 0.63 percentage points, or 20,682 votes.
No up-to-date polls about the race have been published, but it’s looking like a tough hill to climb for Republicans.
9. New Jersey
This race is more about which Democrat will win the seat if embattled incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez can’t hold onto it.Mr. Menendez, who has been in the Senate since 2007 and in Congress since 1993, is facing federal corruption-related charges.
He faces big primary challengers in Democrats Tammy Murphy, wife of Gov. Phil Murphy, and Rep. Andy Kim.
If Mr. Menendez wins his primary, a Republican could pull off an upset, but it’s unlikely.
The GOP candidates who have declared are little-known: teacher Daniel Cruz, businessman Michael Estrada, Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, and Gregg Mele, an attorney who was the Libertarian Party nominee for the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial race.
President Biden easily won the Garden State, with more than 57 percent of the vote, in 2020.
Except for a poll conducted by the left-wing group Data for Progress, showing Mr. Kim in the lead, there have been no reliable polls surrounding the race.
Honorable Mentions
As in New Jersey, there are other races that are safely Democrat but will determine how far left each seat is pushed.This includes California and Maryland.
So far, three Democrat congressmen have announced a bid for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s vacant Senate seat in California. They include Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee. Mr. Schiff is dominating early polling.
On the GOP side, the only notable Senate race that is safe for the GOP that could be a test of the divide in the party is Utah, where Sen. Mitt Romney, a critic of the former president, isn’t running for reelection.
This race could be between candidates who support President Trump and those who seek to move on from him.
Leading candidates so far in the Republican primary are Attorney General Sean Reyes, House Speaker Brad Wilson, and state Sen. Mike Kennedy, who lost to Mr. Romney in the 2018 GOP primary.
