Three quarters of the 2012 Tour de France are in the history books—15 stages (plus the prologue) of 21 stages are complete. Here are the standings so far:
The General Classification lead is firmly in the hands of Sky’s Bradley Wiggins; The Sky rider has two minutes over teammate Chris Froome, 2:23 over Liquigas’s Vincenzo Nibali, and 3:19 over BMC’s Cadel Evans. If he doesn’t crash, he will win.
Bradley Wiggins did exactly what was expected: he gained big time on the time trials and held his own in the mountains. His team simply steamrolled the opposition: Richie Porte, Michael Rogers and Chris Froome proved to be as strong (and in Froome’s case, stronger) than the team leader and no other team could bring as much firepower to the climbs.
Van Garderen will probably hold on to his lead unless Pinot gets into a couple of successful breakaways—which is actually probable. Pinot, the youngest rider in the Tour, is free to attack at will while Van Garderen needs to protect Evans.
It would not be odd for breakaways to succeed in the next three stages; Sky won’t waste a pedal-stroke contesting stage wins. Pinot could make up a minute in a single stage.
Astana’s Fredrik Kessiakoff tops the King of the Mountain competition by 14 points Europcar’s Pierre Rolland. Kessiakoff will need to get into breakaways on the next two stages to defend his jersey. It is likely that whether breakaways survive or not, they will top the early climbs before being caught. Kessiakoff will need to fight for his title.
RadioShack leads Sky by 12 minutes in the Team Classification. Sky isn’t interested. It will happily burn out its riders on the climbs so that Wiggins can win the overall. RadioShack, with its Sporting Director Johan Bruyneel embroiled in doping accusations and facing possible financial problems, should at least salvage a Team win from the 2012 Tour.
The Rest of the Race
Stage 16 restarts the race with a brutal mountain stage: two Hors Categorie and two Cat 1 climbs. Riders who can’t transition from racing to resting to racing will suffer here. Stage 17 is perhaps worse, with Cat 1, 2 and 3 ascents followed by an HC climb and a Cat 1 mountaintop finish.
If Cadel Evans wants to win the Tour, he will need to win it here. He will need to both make up the three minutes he trails Wiggins and probably another two minutes as well, as a cushion for the final time trial.
To do this, Evans will need to make a superhuman effort, and Wiggins will need to crack. This could happen; sometimes riders don’t respond well to rest days. But Bradley Wiggins is amazingly disciplined. It is hard to imagine that he will not work out on the rest day and come back in peak form.
Stage 18 is another medium mountain stage—a handful of small climbs in a stage that will probably be won by a breakaway, unless the sprinters’ teams go for it—but what sprinters’ teams? Lotto and Garmin? More likely everyone will use this day to rest for the final time trial.
If Wiggins doesn’t crash in a prior stage, he will come into the final time trial in the lead, and obliterate the competition as he has at every other time trial this season. The British rider from a British team will win Great Britain its first Tour de France—and immediately start preparing for the Olympics.
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