The summit, Nov. 19-20, is likely to show whether NATO’s strategic conceptualization of the world continues to consider its former Cold War foe the Russian Federation, as an adversary or a partner in global peace.
The key issues in the discussions joined by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will be the war in Afghanistan and the U.S.-led anti-missile shield in Europe that’s been an ongoing worry for the Kremlin.
However, there are differences of opinion within the alliance about welcoming Russia as some Central and East European members remain suspicious of Russia’s agenda in the region, especially after the short Russian-Georgian war in 2008 and Russia cutting off gas supplies to Europe in the winter of 2009.
Russian Ambitions in Europe
Russia has traditionally been wary of NATO summits, where it knows it would be the poor cousin at the 28-nation meeting.
Instead, the federation has preferred to exert its influence in the region through other tactics, such as its ambitious gas pipeline projects—Nord Stream and South Stream—designed make the EU dependent on Russian supplied gas. The projects are seen as a direct rival to the American and EU-backed Nabucco pipeline.
Meanwhile, some European leaders, especially French President Nicolas Sarcozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have supported talking to Russia about joining NATO in order to tackle what they describe as urgent security issues.
NATO officials have said that the deepening cooperation with Russia is important to address global challenges, including countering terrorism, nuclear security, piracy, and narcotics.
“There is some softening of NATO’s attitude toward Russia. It wants to engage Russia on security issues but it will not go as far as giving Russia a free run of the region,” comments Arvind Gupta, an expert with Indian-based Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA).
“Russia is of course open to this relationship because it would like to exert more control on any future NATO enlargement, and also certainly wants to have a voice in shaping the newly proposed NATO missile defense shield,” wrote Ryan Hendrickson, a political science expert with Eastern Illinois University, in an e-mail.
The first official statements regarding offering Russia full membership in NATO began emerging from European soil early this year when Russian Envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin and former German Defense Minister Volker Rühe explained the issue to German media.
Russia has shown that it wants to participate and play a leading role in every global security and trade alliance, from the United Nations Security Council to the World Trade Organization.
However, the Kremlin has failed as a leader in practice. For example, it wasn’t able to help calm violent clashes in Kyrgyzstan in June, a country that Russia considers to be part of its influence.
Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Russian-lead military alliance called the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). CSTO also includes former Soviet republics of Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and is seen as being a post-Soviet Warsaw pact, standing in opposition to NATO.
“Russia’s interests can be envied as it wants to be everywhere, but perhaps without any clear strategy,” the director of Kyiv-based Institute of Foreign Policy, Alyona Getmanchuk wrote in her blog.
European Missile Defense
The NATO summit is expected to address key issues, including a European-wide missile defense and a rich discussion on the war in Afghanistan.
The missile defense program was initiated under Bush, as a shield to be placed in Poland and the Czech Republic, but was put on hold due to Moscow’s protestations. It was revamped by the Obama administration in 2009, but still considered by Russia as an overt threat at their doorstep.
“They [Russians] are uncomfortable seeing missile interceptors and radar systems deployed in Central Europe, not far from their borders. It’s a sign of how much Russia has been cut out of European security,” writes Charles Kupchan in an analysis for the Council on Foreign Affairs.
Some analysts predict that the alliance will be seeking to include Russia into a European-wide defense system to protect their territories from possible threats coming from Iran.
When Russian President Medvedev met his French and German counterparts in France last month, Medvedev said that the Kremlin was evaluating a proposal to help develop the U.S.-led missile defense program, but he pointed out that Russia still worried about the issue.
“The discussion over missile defense is a proxy for a much broader discussion about whether NATO and the EU are still hedges against Russia or whether these institutions are sincerely interested in opening their doors to Russia,” according to Kupchan.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan is the other hot issue that will be on the table in Lisbon, with NATO wanting Russia to continue providing assistance in training Afghan forces, improving transit routes for alliance forces, and cooperating on counter-narcotics efforts.
“Russia has a clear interest in NATO’s success. Russia has more than enough troubles on its southern border and would benefit from a stable, secure Afghanistan,” wrote John Kriendler, a professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Germany.Analysts say that Russia will limit its participation in the war by providing only assistance, but not sending troops there. Among the reasons for not extending troops are the upcoming 2012 presidential elections in Russia and the huge financial burden the Kremlin would rather avoid.
At the same time, Russia also has an interest in cooperating with NATO on Afghanistan.
“First of all, for Moscow it’s a matter of money. Selling about 20 Mi-17 helicopters and accepting the transit fees will help Moscow to patch up the holes in the budget and help its decrepit military industry,” writes Alexander Gabuev, a foreign policy observer at Moscow State University.
“Secondly, Russia is concerned about the flow of heroin from Afghanistan’s poppy fields to its cities and wants to solve the problem with NATO’s hands,” he added.
NATO’s face-to-face negotiations with Moscow next week might be tentative steps toward building an alliance with its traditional foe, in an insecure world with more pressing enemies.
