Ohio COVID-19 Cases Under Projected Curve for 9 Days in a Row

Health professionals conduct CCP virus tests at a drive through testing site at the University of Dayton in Dayton, Ohio, on March 17, 2020. Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images

Ohio reported just 332 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, the ninth straight day the new cases were under projections.

That’s according to WHIO, a local broadcaster that has been comparing the new cases reported each day with a model from Ohio State University’s Infectious Diseases Institute that state officials have frequently cited.

Modelers projected 1,485 cases for April 7.

The model predicted 375 new cases on March 30, 448 on March 31, and 533 on April 1, before projecting increases of 100 or more on subsequent days. The projected peak is April 25, when modelers project 9,698 new cases.

Modelers said in a previous interview they would be happy if their projections weren’t met.

“We are happy we are overpredicting. I’m hoping we are overpredicting and overprepared and all of this will work out better. But we just have to be ready,” Grzegorz Rempala, one of the modelers, told the Cincinnati Enquirer last week.

He said more testing has enabled modelers to get a better handle on the epidemic. “This model starts to more fully see the effects of distancing. People are figuring out this new way of interacting and that also changes the model,” he said.

Polling stations throughout the were shut down as Gov. Mike DeWine called for the state's primaries to be pushed back to June in Columbus, Ohio, on March 17, 2020. Matthew Hatcher/Getty Images

Rempela said the model is running on a “proximity network” as modelers work “to understand how many people you have the potential to interact with who can potentially be infected if you are carrying the virus.” Modelers explained how they came up with the numbers in a white paper (pdf) published this week.

Modelers from MetroHealth revised downwards the projected peak of new cases to a peak of roughly 2,500 new cases a day near the end of April. MetroHealth President and CEO Dr. Akram Boutros said the revision stemmed from results seen after unprecedented social distancing measures that have seen most people largely staying home.

“We’ve never seen this,” Boutros told a Cleveland news website. “This is a historic quarantine that we’ve never seen, and the people of Ohio have been unbelievable.”

Dr. Amy Acton, Ohio’s top doctor, earlier this year defended estimates that 100,000 residents had the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus. Acton told reporters during a briefing Tuesday that officials are using several models, including ones from Ohio State University and the Cleveland Clinic.

The data “collectively points us in a general direction of decision-making that we can use to make some guesstimates about maybe when a peak will be, maybe when we’ll need more ventilators than not,” Acton said. “But it’s very, very general directional science.”

As of April 7, Ohio had 4,782 total cases. Of the 1,354 total hospitalizations and 417 intensive care unit admissions, 167 patients died. About half of those were 80 or older and another 44 percent were 60 or older.

Authorities haven’t said how many of those who died had underlying health conditions. Most people who die from COVID-19 are elderly and/or have underlying conditions like kidney disease or obesity.

Over 50,800 people have been tested for the CCP virus in Ohio.