Oddsmakers Favor GOP in 2022 to Retake House and Senate

Voters cast their ballots at a polling station in Alhambra, Calif., on Nov. 4, 2014. Frederic Brown/AFP/Getty Images

Betting firms are favoring Republicans to take control of both chambers of Congress with less than two weeks to go before the 2022 midterms.

UK-based betting company Smarkets has the Republican Party favored to take control of the Senate with 63.69 percent, as compared with Democrats’ 36.23 percent. The GOP is favored to win the House at 89.29 percent, compared with the Democrats’ 10.87 percent.

Currently, the GOP only needs to take five seats to regain the House, while the Senate is currently 50–50 with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as a tie-breaker for Democrats. Historical trends say the party of the president tends to lose seats during midterm elections.

Another oddsmaker, PredictIt, has the GOP favored to take control of the Senate with 67 cents for a share, as compared with 34 cents per share for Democrats. For winners, they get a dollar back per share.

For the House, Republicans are favored 83 cents to win per dollar, as compared to Democrats with 11 cents to win a dollar, according to the oddsmaker. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is favored to become the next House speaker at 84 cents, as compared with current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who stands at 8 cents.

For Pennsylvania’s Senate race between Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, PredictIt on Wednesday has Oz taking the Senate seat with 68 cents, whereas Fetterman stands at 38 cents. That comes hours after the only debate between Fetterman and Oz in which even legacy media outlets expressed worry about Fetterman’s cognitive ability and health following his stroke earlier this year.

Another site, ElectionBettingOdds, has Republicans with a 64 percent chance of retaking the Senate and an 88.4 percent chance of retaking the House. Democrats only have an 11 percent chance of holding the House and a 35 percent chance of holding the Senate, according to the site.

Analysts for months have said the Republican Party will most likely recapture at least the House amid President Joe Biden’s flagging approval rating and concerns about gas prices, inflation, the state of the U.S. economy, and increases in violent crime. During the late summer, however, some media pundits proclaimed that Democrats were surging after the passage of the “Inflation Reduction Act” and as Biden was recovering from COVID-19 and later, took a lengthy vacation.

But recent polls carried out by Politico, NBC, Pew, and others show that Americans are overwhelmingly worried about inflation. Conducted last week, a Pew poll showed that 73 percent are “very” concerned and 22 percent are “somewhat” concerned about the rise in prices. A combined 93 percent are “very” or “somewhat” concerned by the rise in gasoline prices, the poll shows.