Saturday 4:30 EST: New Orleans (14-3) at San Francisco (13-3)—The 49ers’ somewhat-surprising season will get their first big test Saturday, hosting a Saints squad that could be better than the team that won the Super Bowl two years ago. New Orleans averaged more points per game this season than in 2009 (34.2 compared to 31.9), while allowing nearly the same number (21.2 compared to 21.3) on defense.
Saturday’s game marks San Francisco’s first playoff appearance since 2002, when they were coached by Steve Mariucci. The change is due in part to a strong defense, particularly their linebackers, who allowed the second fewest points (14.3 per game) in the league this season.
On paper, it’s a tossup, but the Niners have home-field advantage and should be rested after their bye last week, while the Saints ripped Detroit. Prediction: 49ers 28, Saints 24
Saturday 8:00 EST: Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3)—The Broncos pulled off a near-miracle last week dispatching the veteran Steelers in overtime. This week’s task will be much more difficult in New England.
The Broncos were able to take advantage of some injuries last week (Roethlisberger’s foot, Mendenhall’s absence), though their biggest advantage (besides home-field) may have been the element of surprise. Few people picked an 8-8 team with a quarterback who has a 46.5 percent completion rate to beat a team that has won two of the last six Super Bowls.
With their signature victory already in hand, Denver has little chance against a team with the third best scoring differential (32.1 points scored, 21.4 points allowed) in the league, and is determined after losing their last two home playoff games. Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 10
Sunday 1:00 EST: Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4)—Maybe the worst nightmare for a team starting a rookie quarterback is to face the Ravens’ famed-defense, in Baltimore. That scenario looks even worse when that rookie also doubles as the emergency third-string quarterback, forced into action because of injuries.
That is what Houston faces Sunday when first-year signal-caller T.J. Yates will line up under center against the likes of future Hall-of-Famers Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs.
The Texans boast a pretty good defense themselves (fourth in scoring), but the franchise has little playoff experience and shouldn’t cause John Harbaugh’s squad any headaches. Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 10
Sunday 4:30 EST: NY Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1)—The Giants end-of-season run this year has some similarities to their run following the 2007 season, when they shocked the league’s best team (New England) in the Super Bowl. Neither Giants’ team did particularly well in the regular season, but peaked at the right time. Both teams played the league’s best team (this year’s would be Green Bay) closely in the regular season.
The defending-champion Packers have looked unbeatable for most of the season, though they looked vulnerable in a 38–35 comeback win against the Giants on Dec. 4. They also could be a bit rusty, given that MVP shoe-in Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played since Christmas Eve.
The toughest game of the weekend to figure should come down to the wire, though a sold-out Lambeau crowd should be the difference. Prediction: Packers 37, Giants 34
