Sunday 3 p.m. EST: Baltimore (13–4) at New England (14–3). This is the marquee matchup that most NFL pundits wanted to see when the playoff seeding was lined up. Both teams have long been feared in the playoffs, yet somehow (mainly due to Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) these teams have only represented the AFC in the Super Bowl once since the Patriots won their second straight Lombardi Trophy following the 2004 season.
The makeups of the teams haven’t changed much through the years, although New England’s defense has been especially porous this year. The Pats ranked 31st (out of 32 teams) in the league in total yards allowed, 31st in passing yards allowed, and 32nd in first downs allowed. However, Bill Belichick’s aggressive squad is in the middle of the pack in points allowed (21.4 per game), thanks in part to a conference-best 23 forced turnovers on defense.
The Tom Brady-led offense ranked third in scoring (32.1 per game) in the season and was running on all cylinders in the previous round’s 45–10 shellacking of Denver.
Baltimore’s traditionally stingy defense again has them in the playoffs following their narrow, yet concerning 20–13 win over Houston. Despite having home-field advantage and forcing four Texan turnovers (while not coughing up the ball once themselves), the game went down to the wire. Houston, even with rookie quarterback T.J. Yates at the helm, out-gained them 315–227 in total yards.
Even beyond the typical offense versus defense matchups, this game is very tough to call.
Both head coaches have a history of performing well in the playoffs, though Belichick’s 15 wins include three in the Super Bowl. Yet, Harbaugh’s 4–3 postseason record has been accomplished without a premier quarterback in a conference that has been dominated by several of them (Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger).
As far as extra motivation for either team, both met two years ago in the playoffs at Foxboro. Baltimore defeated the Patriots 33–14, although the Pats were without star wide receiver Wes Welker. The likelihood of New England still seething over that game may have evaporated when the Jets erased their dream season in last year’s playoffs.
Earlier this week, Ravens’ safety Ed Reed called out quarterback Joe Flacco’s less-than-stellar performance against Houston. As insignificant as the quip might have been, an extra-motivated Flacco could provide enough offense to take down the Patriots.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Patriots 21
Sunday 6:30 p.m. EST: New York (11–7) at San Francisco (14–3). The Giants and 49ers have played some memorable playoff games over the years. Most notable among them was the 39–38 San Francisco win in 2002, when the Niners scored the final 25 points to complete the comeback. The victory had been the 49ers’ last playoff win, until they beat the Saints last week.
A fair amount has changed for the franchise since 2002, as the team is no longer defined by a high-scoring offense. They have found gold in new head coach, Jim Harbaugh, who has quickly parlayed this team’s strength (defense, especially at linebacker) into the second-best record in the pass-happy NFC.
Linebackers Aldon Smith (rookie with 17 sacks), Navorro Bowman (team-high 116 tackles), and Patrick Willis (four-time All-Pro) have been a big part of the NFL’s second-ranked defense, allowing just 14.3 per game on the season.
The trio will be counted on to stuff the Giants’ resurgent running attack that averaged 133.5 yards per game and 4.6 per carry in the postseason, after ranking last in the league in the regular season with 89.2 yards per game and 3.5 per carry.
A potent running game seems to be a bonus for the Giants, who have somehow made due with a non-existent ground game for most of the year, while still finding a way into the postseason. The key seems to lie with their unassuming quarterback, Eli Manning. His proficiency in running the 2-minute offense has allowed the Giants to escape a number of close games this season with a win.
Though Manning couldn’t quite deliver in a 27–20 loss at San Francisco earlier this season, this time he should.
Prediction: Giants 34, 49ers 27
