New Orleans Attack Shows Ongoing Influence of ISIS Propaganda, Analysts Say
A member of the Iraqi forces walks past a mural bearing the logo of the Islamic State terrorist group in a tunnel that was reportedly used as a training center by the extremists in the village of Albu Sayf, Iraq, on March 1, 2017. Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP via Getty Images

New Orleans Attack Shows Ongoing Influence of ISIS Propaganda, Analysts Say

Whether ISIS physically exists or not is ‘irrelevant’ to Islamic extremists, says a counterterrorism expert.
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News Analysis
When Shamsud-Din Jabbar was planning his attack on New Year’s revelers in the French Quarter of New Orleans, he posted several videos online proclaiming his support for the ISIS terrorist group, including five videos posted on his Facebook page, according to the FBI.

He turned his rented Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck into Bourbon Street, drove along the sidewalk, and plowed into a crowd, only moments after the FBI said he posted the final video at 3:02 a.m.

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The FBI released photos of surveillance footage that shows Shamsud-Din Jabbar an hour before he drove a truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans on Jan. 1, 2025. FBI via AP

The pickup truck crashed to a halt, and Jabbar was gunned down by police officers after he had opened fire on them. A distinctive black ISIS flag fluttered from the back of the truck.

Moign Khawaja, professor of security studies at Dublin City University, told The Epoch Times that there was a common pattern with so-called lone-wolf attackers such as Jabbar.

Khawaja said that such people often suffer from personal problems—Jabbar had recently gotten divorced—and spend too much time on their computer consuming extremist content. “One thing leads to the other, and here we are,” he said.

ISIS has been promoting the method of attack used by Jabbar, Christopher Raia, deputy assistant director of the FBI’s counterterrorism division, said on Jan. 5.

“For the past several years, the FBI has provided intelligence to our law enforcement partners highlighting that ISIS calls for vehicle-ramming attacks,” Raia said.

In one of Jabbar’s videos, he allegedly said he had planned to harm his family and friends but decided against it because he feared that the news headlines would not focus on the “war between the believers and the disbelievers,” Raia said.

The suspect also allegedly revealed in one of the videos that he had joined the ISIS terrorist group before the summer of 2024.

Khawaja, whose book “Islamic State, Media, and Propaganda” is set to be published later this month, said there were some similarities between Jabbar and Omar Mateen, who killed 49 people at Pulse—a gay nightclub in Orlando—in June 2016.

Mateen, a U.S.-born Muslim, swore allegiance to ISIS during the attack. It later emerged that he had been a regular at the club.

The Bourbon Street area of New Orleans contains several LGBT clubs, and Khawaja said this might have influenced Jabbar, as ISIS is a profoundly homophobic organization.

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(Top) A rolled up black ISIS flag lies in the back of a Ford pickup truck that was driven into a crowd, killing at least 14 people, on Bourbon Street in New Orleans on Jan. 1, 2025. (Bottom) An FBI agent (L) and a Louisiana State Police officer examine a glass jar during the investigation on Bourbon Street on Jan. 1. Gerald Herbert, Matthew Hinton/AP

Birth of ISIS

Khawaja said that after 9/11, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, an Islamic extremist who had been operating in Afghanistan, moved to the Middle East and founded al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), which he led until he died in 2006.

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi took over the group until he died in 2010.

Khawaja said Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi then became the leader of AQI and eventually rebranded it as ISIS.

According to Khawaja, in 2011 when the Arab Spring began and there was an uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sent Abu Mohammad al-Golani to Syria to set up a Syrian wing of the group.

“Basically al-Qaeda split into two at that time. One became ISIS, which was headed by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the other was Jabhat al-Nusra, which in English means al-Nusra Front in Syria, headed by al-Golani,” Khawaja said.

Al-Nusra Front later changed its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and al-Golani, now known as Ahmed al-Sharaa, is now the de facto ruler of Syria.

In 2014, the al-Nusra Front group was losing the war in Syria, and ISIS was on the march, taking over huge swaths of territory in northern Iraq and eastern Syria and declaring a caliphate, with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as its leader.

ISIS, with its distinctive black flag and its brutal version of Sharia law, struck terror in its enemies and drew recruits from all over the Muslim world.

Before ISIS existed, Islamist terrorists conducting attacks in the West declared allegiance to al-Qaeda. However, the number of atrocities appeared to grow as ISIS gained control of territory in the Middle East.

In January 2015, terrorists killed 17 people in Paris during attacks on the offices of the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine—which had published cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad—and a Jewish supermarket.

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Medics evacuate an injured person on Boulevard des Filles du Calvaire, close to the Bataclan theater, in Paris on Nov. 14, 2015. Thierry Chesnot/Getty Images

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula claimed responsibility for the Hebdo attack, which was carried out by brothers Cherif and Said Kouachi. Two days after his death, a video emerged of the supermarket attacker, Amedy Coulibaly, pledging allegiance to ISIS. Coulibaly said that he had coordinated his actions with the Kouachi brothers.

In November 2015, 130 people were killed in another attack in Paris, focusing on the Stade de France (Stadium of France) and the Bataclan concert hall.

In March 2017, a terrorist killed five people, including a police officer, during an attack near the Houses of Parliament in London, and ISIS claimed responsibility.

British police said at the time that they believed the attack was inspired by extremist ideology but had found no evidence that the suspect had direct links to ISIS or al-Qaeda.

Khawaja said ISIS had often claimed responsibility for lone-wolf attacks even when there was no real evidence of any link.

He told The Epoch Times: “Their modus operandi was, if the attacker was killed in the attack, then ISIS would claim responsibility for that attack. But if the attacker is somehow alive, or was arrested alive, then they won’t issue a statement for a couple of days.”

Khawaja said the system broke down in March 2024 when there was a terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall entertainment complex in Moscow.

He said ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed 137 people and injured another 180.

Khawaja said: “They did it despite knowing that the attackers were not really acting like ISIS operatives. They had made some basic mistakes, like waving the flag in the wrong order, and making the testimony [from the Quran] with the left-hand index finger, rather than the right-hand one, and so many things like that.”

He said conspiracy theories began to circulate over the Crocus City Hall attack, with some suggesting that Ukrainian intelligence had carried it out under a false flag.

The United States claimed that ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), a branch of ISIS based in Central Asia, was behind the attack. Russia disputed this, and Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, claimed that the United States had sought to “cover itself and its proxy—the [Kyiv] regime—by resorting to the ISIS bogeyman.”

ISIS-K also claimed responsibility for the August 2021 bombing at Kabul airport, which killed 13 U.S. service personnel and about 170 Afghans, as the United States was withdrawing from Afghanistan.
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A man suspected of taking part in the attack on the Crocus Hall that killed at least 137 people is escorted by Russian law enforcement officers at the Basmanny District Court in Moscow on March 24, 2024. Tatyana Makeyeva/AFP via Getty Images

ISIS Propaganda Outlets

Khawaja said ISIS has had various ways of communicating with the outside world.

Between July 2014 and September 2016, it published an online magazine, Dabiq, which was replaced by Rumiyah, the Arabic name for Constantinople or Istanbul, which ran until September 2017.

He said its main media organ is now the al-Naba newsletter, which is published weekly online.

According to the Wilson Center in Washington, at its height, ISIS ruled 40 percent of Iraq and one-third of Syria. By December 2017, it had lost 95 percent of its territory, including the city of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, and Raqqa, its nominal capital, in Syria.

Despite the losses, terrorist attacks in the West continued.

In March 2018, an attacker who claimed allegiance to ISIS killed four people in the French town of Carcassonne and the nearby village of Trèbes.

There were further attacks in Belgium, the UK, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Philippines. ISIS also claimed responsibility for an attack in November 2018 in Melbourne, Australia, in which three people died.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in October 2019 in tunnels beneath a compound in Barisha, in northwestern Syria.

Announcing Baghdadi’s death, President Donald Trump said: “He reached the end of the tunnel, as our dogs chased him down. He ignited his vest, killing himself and the three children. His body was mutilated by the blast.”
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U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, speaks as a picture of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is displayed during a press briefing at the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., on Oct. 30, 2019. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in Syria in Oct. 2019. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Trump, who said DNA tests had confirmed that the body belonged to Baghdadi, added, “The thug who tried so hard to intimidate others spent his last moments in utter fear, panic, and dread—terrified of the American Forces bearing down.”

By early 2020, ISIS was reduced to a small group of terrorists, stripped of artillery or military hardware, hiding out in the deserts of eastern Syria.

‘Ideology Will Remain Attractive’

Rossa McPhillips, a counterterrorism expert in the UK, told The Epoch Times, “Whether ISIS exists as a group or not, is irrelevant.”

He said Osama bin Laden never held any territory for al-Qaeda, but extremists would still pledge allegiance to the organization when committing jihadist atrocities.

“ISIS has some street cred because it took over [swaths] of territory and was more vehement in its practices of extreme Islam. Al-Qaeda hasn’t gone away, but it is diminished. Groups did pledge allegiance to al-Qaeda before ISIS came on the scene, but a lot of it was jumping on the 9/11 bandwagon to gain more notoriety and fame for the group,” McPhillips said.

“But when it comes to extremist Islam, like the far-right or extreme left, the ideology will remain attractive as it gives a simple analysis of the world. It provides succinct answers to difficult questions. And that’s hard to defeat.”

On Jan. 5—the same day that the FBI was releasing information on Jabbar—the U.S. military said that a non-U.S. coalition soldier had been killed and two others wounded during an operation against ISIS.

It also detailed operations in Syria, led by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, including one that resulted in the capture of a person described as an “ISIS attack cell leader.”

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A fighter from the Syrian Democratic Forces stands guard as a U.S. military vehicle pulls out of a U.S. base in Tal Tamr, Syria, on Oct. 20, 2019. Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. officials have said ISIS is hoping to stage a comeback in Syria following the fall of Assad.

Khawaja said ISIS cells are “scattered here and there” in Iraq and Syria and are “quite strong in the desert,” where they have mounted hit-and-run guerrilla attacks.

He said: “Just before the fall of the regime in Syria, they were about to capture a town called al-Sukhnah, which is a major town, in eastern Syria. It was about to fall, but somehow it was foiled by the Americans and also by the Russians.”

Khawaja said he doesn’t think that ISIS will make a comeback anytime soon but that “the idea lives on. It keeps inspiring these people, these terrorists.”

“ISIS are not in territorial possession in Iraq and Syria, but they are making inroads in other countries, like Mozambique, where they control certain districts in the north that border Tanzania,” he said.

Khawaja said there are also armed groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo that are affiliated with ISIS.

“Sometimes, the organizations just do it to instill fear and to acquire some expertise. They pledge allegiance to ISIS, even though they had nothing in common with ISIS to start with, just because it garners more attention in the media and more people are attracted to them,” he said.

Khawaja said he believes that the conflict in Gaza could have drawn more people to ISIS. However, regarding the New Orleans attacker, he stated, “There is nothing to suggest this guy had any kind of grievance toward Israel.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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