The NCAA’s sweet 16 round is finally upon us with four games Thursday evening, so it’s time for some predictions on which team is going to win.
Trying to guess the winners for this year’s tournament has been pretty rough, thus far. With Lehigh beating second-seeded Duke hours after Norfolk State did the same to 30-win Missouri it is likely that no one out there had a perfect bracket after just one round.
Judging past performance is just one of the ways to predict the outcome of these games but with Mike Krzyzewski’s (who has appeared in 11 Final Fours and won 4 national titles) team already out that theory loses some credence. Other ways to predict include who is playing well, who looks more motivated, and what matchups look favorable. With that in mind here are Thursday night’s predictions:
East Region Game One, 7:15 pm, EST: (1) Syracuse (33-2) versus (4) Wisconsin (26-9)—After squeaking by UNC-Asheville in their opener the Orange played with a bit of a chip on its shoulder in the second half of their 75–59 win over Kansas State. Perhaps the constant doubting of its team after struggling to win without Big East Conference Defensive Player of the Year Fab Melo the game before was the reason for its suddenly determined play Saturday against the Wildcats.
The Badgers have been a bit of a mystery team this year. The team was ranked 15th in the preseason as it returned star guard Jordan Taylor. The senior has not had near as good of a season this year though as he did last year, as his scoring has dropped from 18.1 to 14.7 points per game, while his shooting percentages are down across the board.
Fortunately though Wisconsin’s defense ranks No. 1 in the NCAA, out of 338 teams, in points allowed at 52.9 points per contest, yet it struggles to score, putting up just 64 points a game.
Look for a low-scoring affair that the Orange will ultimately come out on top. Prediction: Syracuse 61, Wisconsin 56.
West Region Game One, 7:47 pm, EST: (1) Michigan State (29-7) versus (4) Louisville (28-9)—With tournament coaching stalwarts Tom Izzo withsix Final Fours, and one title and Rick Pitino (five Final Fours, one title) roaming the sidelines, this should be a well-played game on both sides.
On paper, the Spartans do just about everything well, ranking second in the NCAA in field-goal percentage defense at 37.9 percent, fifth in rebound margin at a difference of 8.3 per game, and ninth in scoring margin at 13.0. They also have do-everything forward Draymond Green who leads the team in scoring (16.3), rebounding (10.5) and even assists (3.9).
On the other side, the Cardinals defense is right there with the Spartans in allowing just 37.9 percent of its opponent’s shots to fall. One difference though is that the Big East schedule, with sub-par seasons by Pittsburgh, Villanova, and even Connecticut was not up to its usual high standards while the Big Ten saw five of its 12 members seeded 4th or better in the field.
Should be another close, low-scoring affair with the Spartans edging them out in the end. Prediction: Michigan State 66, Louisville 61.
East Region Game...
East Region Game Two, 9:45 pm, EST: (2) Ohio State (29-7) versus (6) Cincinnati (26-10)—This should be a very intense game between a pair of in-state rivals.
On paper, the Buckeyes with All-American Jared Sullinger in the post have a better team, but oftentimes in these rivalry games the records are thrown out the window. And, usually the smaller school of the two plays with a chip on its shoulder. That would be Cincinnati that hasn’t been to the Final Four since 1992.
On the other side though Sullinger, who could have declared for the NBA draft after last season as a freshman and been a likely lottery-pick, didn’t come back for another season only to lose well-short of a title. Ohio State though hasn’t looked like the title contenders everyone thought they were since Sullinger was injured in November and missed a pair of games. After blowing out Duke 85–63 on Nov. 29 the Buckeyes looked like they'd challenge Kentucky for the top-ranking for most of the season. Instead they suffered a pair of early conference-season losses to Indiana (74–70) and Illinois (79–74) before eventually tying Michigan and Michigan State (two teams most thought the Buckeyes would finish ahead of) for first place in the conference.
Matchup-wise, Cincinnati, with 6-foot-9-inch, 260-pound Yancy Gates in the middle actually matches up well with Ohio State’s main weapon, the 6-foot-9-inch, 265-pound Sullinger. Look for the Bearcats to pull the upset. Prediction: Cincinnati 79, Ohio State 74.
West Region Game Two, 10:17 pm, EST: (3) Marquette (27-7) versus (7) Florida (25-10)—The Gators are a tough team to figure out. Through two NCAA tournament games, they have looked like one of the best teams in the country in blowing out Virginia 71–45 and then Norfolk State 84–50 to advance to the regional semi finals.
Prior to the tournament though, Florida had dropped 6 of their last 10 games, though 3 of them were to top-ranked Kentucky.
The Gators are tops in the country at most 3-pointers made per game (9.8) and they shoot them well, hitting on 38.3 percent of them, good for 28th best nationally. Interestingly though, they aren’t totally dependent on having a great 3-point shooting game to win, as evidenced in hitting just 4 of 23 3-pointers in the blowout win over Virginia.
Meanwhile, Marquette has quietly won 15 of its last 18 games and finished second in the 16-team Big East. They boast two great scorers in seniors Jae Crowder (17.6 points per game) and Darius Johnson-Odom (18.5), who’ve never advanced past the Sweet 16 before. This should be the year though. Prediction: Marquette 77, Florida 68.
