With only one month left before the Republican Party’s crucial Iowa caucuses and five weeks until the first presidential primary in New Hampshire, every GOP candidate is on the campaign trail.
For now, the latest poll from Iowa shows former President Donald Trump is maintaining his firm lead.
On Dec. 14, Iowa State University and Civiqs released a new poll of 438 Iowans who said they will “definitely” or “probably” attend the Republican Party of Iowa’s caucuses on the evening of Jan. 15, 2024. The poll was held Dec. 8 through Dec. 13 and reports a margin of error of 6 percent.
The Iowa State poll said most respondents’ first choice was President Trump. According to the poll, 54 percent would list him as their top choice for the GOP nomination if they caucused that day.
Behind President Trump, 17 percent of likely Iowa caucusgoers prefer Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 15 percent would choose former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, 7 percent would pick businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and 4 percent would back former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
‘Running Out of Time’
In a release attached to the poll, Dave Peterson, Lucken Professor of Political Science at Iowa State, said “other candidates are running out of time” to catch President Trump.
“It doesn’t look like there’s a lot of potential for Iowans to change their mind going into January,” Mr. Peterson said in the news release.
To the contrary, in an interview with The Epoch Times, Tim Hagle, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Iowa, said things can and do change before the caucus night. Mr. Hagle, who has published two books on the caucuses, said the results will depend on which candidates’ supporters are willing to show up and stand up for their pick on the caucus night.
“We always say that there’s a lot of movement, or can be a lot of movement, right before the caucuses,” Mr. Hagle said.
Shortly after the Iowa contest, voters in three states will head to the primary polls. New Hampshire’s primary will be held on Jan. 23. After that, a GOP primary will be held in Nevada on Feb. 8 and in South Carolina on Feb. 24.
In New Hampshire, the latest polling indicates a somewhat tighter race. President Trump holds a serious advantage, but the other candidates are closer.
Donald Trump
President Trump will visit three states over four days starting on Saturday.On Dec. 16, he is planning on making a stop in Durham, New Hampshire. On Dec. 17, he'll be in Reno, Nevada. And on Dec. 19, he should return to the Midwest with a stop in Waterloo, Iowa. President Trump appeared in Coralville, Iowa, on Dec. 13.
To expand his reach, the Trump campaign is enlisting surrogates to appear in Iowa, too.
Nikki Haley
Ms. Haley plans on spending a week in Iowa with a series of town halls starting on Dec. 17. The candidate, who is battling with Mr. DeSantis for the position as the leading alternative to President Trump, is set to appear in Altoona, Iowa, first.Ron DeSantis
Mr. DeSantis, who has spoken with Iowans in all of its 99 counties, is drawing up a cross-country campaign in the following weeks.Mr. DeSantis or his wife, Casey DeSantis, will appear in either Iowa or New Hampshire every day between Dec. 15 and Dec. 21.
With his campaign or his super political action committee Never Back Down Inc., Mr. DeSantis is scheduled to hold an event in Temple and Windham, New Hampshire, on Dec. 15. Mrs. DeSantis, for her part, is planning on appearing in Cherokee, Ida Grove, Les Mars, and Sioux City, Iowa, on Dec. 15.
Mr. DeSantis will likely return to Iowa on Dec. 16. Then he is expected to hit Fort Dodge and Johnston. On Dec. 17, he should stop in Oskaloosa. On Dec. 18, he'll be in Bettendorf, and on Dec. 20, Urbandale. The trip is scheduled to wrap up on Dec. 21 with an event in Coralville and Ainsworth.
